What is the meaning of today NIFTY's bounce back............ 13 Jan 2011

As I had said yesterday that this the third time when NIFTY Spot has taken Support @ 5754.10 on 11 Jan 2011 and technical bounce back is possible from the current levels, so what did happen, It happened what i had said. Today on 12 Jan 2011 NIFTY Spot bounced +109.15 from the lower levels and closed @ 5863.25 and also made the high of 5874.20 and also made the low of 5711.30. The Ist Resistance of NIFTY Spot from the lower level was 5866.41 suggested  on 10 Jan 2011, which the NIFTY Spot has crossed. So the next Resistance is at 5969.98,  6032.71. 


"FIIs are taking long position slowly slowly at lower levels ( from 10 Jan 2011 to till onwards) in stocks futures where they are seeking opportunities . 


Long Position in Stock Futures of FIIs


On 10 Jan 2011 - Rs. +462.46 Cr.
On 11 Jan 2011 - Rs. +477.11 Cr.
On 12 Jan 2011 - Rs. +715.61 Cr


So we can see there is a sharp increase in Long Position in Stock Futures by FIIs on 12 Jan  2011 in comparison to 10 Jan & 11 Jan 2011. 


But if see the data of INDEX Future. It is just reverse. In Index Futures FIIs are taking Short Position slowly slowly where they seeking opportunities.


Short Position in Index Futures of FIIs 


On 06 Jan 2011 - Rs. +130.62 Cr
On 07 Jan 2011 - Rs. -1229.64 Cr
On 10 Jan 2011 - Rs. -525.33 Cr
On 11 Jan 2011 - Rs. +475.22 Cr
On 12 Jan 2011 - Rs. -217.16 Cr


So overall Rs. -1420.29 Cr Short Position in Index Future.


So what these are showing??????????????????????????????


These are showing FIIs are looking further more downside in Index Futures but Long in Stock Futures on holding basis. 


What we have seen today in the market, It was just a technical bounce back due to heavy correction in some trading sessions. The Maximum upside is looking in January from 5975 - 6000 (Last dead line for upside). So book Your profits if you have taken long position in lower levels according to your risk/profit level. We should not ignore the today's low of NIFTY Spot which was 5711.30."


The Portugal matter is not quite resolved till now and the meeting on inflation control with the ministers in the presence of Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh was not resultant. IIP data is not in the favor and RBI is also looking to increase interest rates to control the inflation,  prices of Onion, tomato, potato, wheat and others base commodities are increasing day by day and oil marketing companies are increasing the oil & gas rates. All these are indicating that fundamental factors are not strong on global as well as domestic level."


For tomorrow on 13 Jan 2011 NIFTY Spot can go up to 5810 on downside. After an again  pull back is possible.