NIFTY is looking for 5470 to 5500..........be Alert....... - 18 Jan 2011

As I had said that after a long huge downwards a technical bounce back is possible so NIFTY Spot bounced +109 Points on 12 Jan 2011 and indicated how FIIs are taking short Position in Index Futures and had suggested global & domestics fundamental are not looking strong in the near term also. So what happened, because of weak fundamentals market reversed after technical bounce back and became down around -110 Points on 13 Jan 2011 means next day it happened. After that NIFTY became again down -104 Points on 14 Jan 2011. 


"We saw on 16 Jan 2011 that Oil Marketing Companies hiked oil prices again. And I want to tell you one thing Indian Government has stopped to give subsidies to Oil Marketing Companies. So these companies are free to fix the oil prices specially for Petrol and Diesel according to the price of crude oil in International Market that is currently at 92$ per barrel and expecting to move up to 97$. So, In future these companies can hike the oil prices more. This activity will impact on market directly, because hike in price of oil will increase the inflation so RBI will take some strong action like can increase the interest rates in the future. So all these things negatively impact on market. We can also see some dramatic drama in future on Portugal matter on Europe."


If we see the movement of NIFTY Spot from 14 July 2010 to 14 Jan 2011, Its clearly States that how and where NIFTY Spot is going on..... See the chat below :-

NIFTY Spot Movement from 14 July 2010 to 14 Jan 2011

"If we see this chart, its clearly states that there is gap of  +707.05 Points between 5479.40 to 6186.45 only in 26 Trading Sessions. On 03 Sept 2010 NIFTY Spot was 5479.40 and on 06 Oct 2010 NIFTY Spot was 6186.45. After making this huge gap NIFTY Spot made the highest level 6312.45 on 05 Nov 2010 but after that It became down -442.30 Points from 6194.25 to 5751.95 only in 5 Trading Sessions. On 11 Nov 2010 NIFTY Spot was 6194.25 and on 26 Nov 2010 It was 5751.95. After this downtrend NIFTY Spot recovered and made the level of 6157.60 from its down level, but after it again became down -503.05 Points from 6157.60 to 5654.55 in 12 Trading Sessions. On 03 Jan 2011 NIFTY Spot was 6157.60 and on 14 Jan 2011 it was 5654.55."

After Analyzing this we see..........

"Big gap on Upside was +707.05 Points from 5479.40 to 6186.45 from 03 Sept 2010 to 06 Oct 2010

Ist Big gap on downside was -442.30 Points from 6194.25 to 5751.95 from 11 Nov 2010 to 26 Nov 2010

IInd Big gap on downside was -503.05 Points from 6157.60 to 5654.55 from 03 Jan 2011 to 14 Jan 2011

So, out of +707.05 Points gap on upside, -531.90 Points gap on downside has recovered and -175.15 Points  more on downside has remained.

So from the current level NIFTY Spot can down more up to -175.15 Points. Means less 175.15 Points in current index level 5654.55 = 5479.50."

The second thing is that consider the FIIs exposure in INDEX FUTURES..........

"FIIs Exposure in INDEX FUTURES...

I had mentioned in my 12 Jan 2011 Post regarding FIIs exposure in INDEX FUTURES and we saw till 12 Jan 2011 FIIs have created Net of Rs.  -1420.29 CR. Short Position in Index Futures. Now further details are....

On 13 Jan 2011 - Rs. -35.42 CR.

On 14 Jan 2011 - Rs. +207.85 CR.

On 17 Jan 2011 - Rs. +606.13 CR.

So Net Short Position in Index Futures is Rs. -1455.71 CR. till 17 Jan 2011

and Net Short Covered in Index Futures is Rs. +813.98 till 17 Jan 2011

So we are seeing that FIIs are short covering right now and covered Rs. +813.98 Cr. out of Rs. -1455.71 Cr. then Rs. -641.73 Cr. amount of short position has remained to recover.

So because of short covering by FIIs we can see the some up moves in the market up to 5750 for NIFTY Spot. But fundamental factors are not looking strong till now, so we can see further more downside to 5548.55 after a short move.

So be alert......................................................

Book your Profits at every up move if you have taken position on downs."