"If we analyze the above table and chart its clearly states that what the FIIs think in its mind about Index Futures including NIFTY Future direction. It indiactes that FIIs have overall negative thinking in index means to say they are taking huge short positions in index futures and creating a huge bearish pattarn on chat.
On the basis of above Table reading there are some important findings.....
FIIs have huge short Position in Index Futures including NIFTY Futures...
Total Net Short Position in Index Futures is Rs. 4257.23 Cr. @ 5706 (Average of NIFTY Spot Level on Short Position Basis)
After 19 Jan 2011 FIIs have not covered their Short Position except on 25 Jan 2011.
Over All trend is negative and situation can be more panic. So be Alert............
NIFTY Spot can go up to 5365.........
If you have taken long position on lower levels Book your profits every time when the market is become on upper levels....
On upside 5675 is Possible but on that level FIIs can take again short position in the index....."
After Analyzing this table its clearly states that FIIs has Net Investment in 2010 in Rs. 140497.20 Cr. @ 5490.70 (Avg NIFTY Spot in 2010).
So 5500 is the very crucial support for NIFTY Spot because FIIs Net Investment in 2010 is @ 5490.
After Analyzing all these things, its clearly states that 2011 is the time to withdraw the Investment by FIIs. If we see the the month of Jan on 2011, its clearly shows FIIs has withdrawn Rs. 4063.00 Cr. till 21 Jan 2011.
Tomorrow RBI will announce its Credit Policy expecting to hike CRR and Repo Rate by .25 BPS. It will be the prier indication of budget means, what the government will take action against inflation and price hike in oil prices and also for some commodities.
Note:- All the data has been taken from NSE/BSE/SEBI.
What the market has done today. It was just only a drama to be shown to the people. See the this intra-day chart....
NIFTY Spot Intra-day Movement of 20 Jan 2011
See the gap which made from the level of 5660 to 5708. Today big players has done a dramatic session which is clearly shown in the chart. From opening to till 13:00 PM, market was reacting on its way but after 13:30 PM market turned into dramatic session and moved up and touched the level of 5729.39. I had suggested the 1st support of NIFTY Spot was 5620.35 and NIFTY Spot made the low of 5634.50.
What is the reason of this dramatic session today???????????????
See the real fact............
After Analyzing this table its clearly states that.....
Total Net Long Position = Rs. 1704.80 Cr.
Total Net Short Position = Rs. -2821.44 Cr.
So Over All Net Short Position is = Rs. -1116.64
So After Analyzing all these things Market is not looking strong right no.
So, Buy NIFTY 5600 Put Feb Expiry @ Rs. 75 - 86 (according to your risk level), Stop Loss Rs. 30.
As I had said on 17 Jan 2011 in the report of 18 Jan 2011 that because of short covering by FIIs a short move on upside is possible up to 5750 in the market and what happened on 18 Jan 2011 NIFTY moved on upside tried to cross the 5750 but became fail. What happened today on 19 Jan 2011 everyone knows very well. Again NIFTY Spot tried to touch the 5750 but again became fail, made the high of 5747.65 and became finally down made the low of 5662.55. The 1st Trading Support for NIFTY Spot is 5620.55 suggested on 17 Jan 2011 and remaining 5586.35, 5548.55.
If we see the movement of NIFTY Spot on monthly basis, then its clearly states that where it is going and what the drama in the market is going on. See the Chat....below.....
NIFTY Spot Movement on Monthly Basis from July 2010 to Jan 2011
If we see the chart its clearly states that how NIFTY Spot is moving. I think there is no need to say more.... Only indication is sufficient for intelligent.
Correct the premium of Buy NIFTY 5900 Call Feb Expiry @ Rs. 67 - 77. in place of Rs. 122 - 132.
So, Rectified Premium of NIFTY 5900 Call Feb Expiry @ Rs. 67 - 77 Rectified Loss limited to Rs. 217 only Rectified Break-Even Point @ 5683
"Short NIFTY Future Feb Expiry @ 5759.95 to 5770 (according to your Risk Level) + Buy NIFTY 5900 Call Feb Expiry @ Rs. 67 to 77 (according to your Risk Level) with No Stop Loss."
*Risk :- Limited up to Rs. 217 to 207 Profit :- Unlimited
*Break - Even Point :- 5683
*Calculation of Risk : Call Strike Price - Short Index level + Premium Paid for the Call For this trading strategy, NIFTY Call Strike Price = 5900 Short NIFTY Future Level = 5759.95 Premium Paid for the Call = Rs. 77
then, Risk = 5900 - 5759.95 + 77 = Rs. 217 (If NIFTY Spot is closed below at any level of Break - Even Point on expiry then, loss will be limited to only Rs. 217)
*Calculation of Break - Even Point: Short Index Level - Premium Paid for the Call For this trading strategy, Short Index Level = 5759.95 Premium Paid for the Call = Rs. 77
then, Break - Even Point = 5759.95 - 77 = 5683 ( If NIFTY Spot is closed at this level on expiry then no profit & loss will be there.)
As I had said that after a long huge downwards a technical bounce back is possible so NIFTY Spot bounced +109 Points on 12 Jan 2011 and indicated how FIIs are taking short Position in Index Futures and had suggested global & domestics fundamental are not looking strong in the near term also. So what happened, because of weak fundamentals market reversed after technical bounce back and became down around -110 Points on 13 Jan 2011 means next day it happened. After that NIFTY became again down -104 Points on 14 Jan 2011.
"We saw on 16 Jan 2011 that Oil Marketing Companies hiked oil prices again. And I want to tell you one thing Indian Government has stopped to give subsidies to Oil Marketing Companies. So these companies are free to fix the oil prices specially for Petrol and Diesel according to the price of crude oil in International Market that is currently at 92$ per barrel and expecting to move up to 97$. So, In future these companies can hike the oil prices more. This activity will impact on market directly, because hike in price of oil will increase the inflation so RBI will take some strong action like can increase the interest rates in the future. So all these things negatively impact on market. We can also see some dramatic drama in future on Portugal matter on Europe."
If we see the movement of NIFTY Spot from 14 July 2010 to 14 Jan 2011, Its clearly States that how and where NIFTY Spot is going on..... See the chat below :-
NIFTY Spot Movement from 14 July 2010 to 14 Jan 2011
"If we see this chart, its clearly states that there is gap of +707.05 Points between 5479.40 to 6186.45 only in 26 Trading Sessions. On 03 Sept 2010 NIFTY Spot was 5479.40 and on 06 Oct 2010 NIFTY Spot was 6186.45. After making this huge gap NIFTY Spot made the highest level 6312.45 on 05 Nov 2010 but after that It became down -442.30 Points from 6194.25 to 5751.95 only in 5 Trading Sessions. On 11 Nov 2010 NIFTY Spot was 6194.25 and on 26 Nov 2010 It was 5751.95. After this downtrend NIFTY Spot recovered and made the level of 6157.60 from its down level, but after it again became down -503.05 Points from 6157.60 to 5654.55 in 12 Trading Sessions. On 03 Jan 2011 NIFTY Spot was 6157.60 and on 14 Jan 2011 it was 5654.55."
After Analyzing this we see..........
"Big gap on Upside was +707.05 Points from 5479.40 to 6186.45 from 03 Sept 2010 to 06 Oct 2010
Ist Big gap on downside was -442.30 Points from 6194.25 to 5751.95 from 11 Nov 2010 to 26 Nov 2010
IInd Big gap on downside was -503.05 Points from 6157.60 to 5654.55 from 03 Jan 2011 to 14 Jan 2011
So, out of +707.05 Points gap on upside, -531.90 Points gap on downside has recovered and -175.15 Points more on downside has remained.
So from the current level NIFTY Spot can down more up to -175.15 Points. Means less 175.15 Points in current index level 5654.55 = 5479.50."
The second thing is that consider the FIIs exposure in INDEX FUTURES..........
"FIIs Exposure in INDEX FUTURES...
I had mentioned in my 12 Jan 2011 Post regarding FIIs exposure in INDEX FUTURES and we saw till 12 Jan 2011 FIIs have created Net of Rs. -1420.29 CR. Short Position in Index Futures. Now further details are....
On 13 Jan 2011 - Rs. -35.42 CR.
On 14 Jan 2011 - Rs. +207.85 CR.
On 17 Jan 2011 - Rs. +606.13 CR.
So Net Short Position in Index Futures is Rs. -1455.71 CR. till 17 Jan 2011
and Net Short Covered in Index Futures is Rs. +813.98 till 17 Jan 2011
So we are seeing that FIIs are short covering right now and covered Rs. +813.98 Cr. out of Rs. -1455.71 Cr. then Rs. -641.73 Cr. amount of short position has remained to recover.
So because of short covering by FIIs we can see the some up moves in the market up to 5750 for NIFTY Spot. But fundamental factors are not looking strong till now, so we can see further more downside to 5548.55 after a short move.
So be alert......................................................
Book your Profits at every up move if you have taken position on downs."
As I had said yesterday that this the third time when NIFTY Spot has taken Support @ 5754.10 on 11 Jan 2011 and technical bounce back is possible from the current levels, so what did happen, It happened what i had said. Today on 12 Jan 2011 NIFTY Spot bounced +109.15 from the lower levels and closed @ 5863.25 and also made the high of 5874.20 and also made the low of 5711.30. The Ist Resistance of NIFTY Spot from the lower level was 5866.41 suggested on 10 Jan 2011, which the NIFTY Spot has crossed. So the next Resistance is at 5969.98, 6032.71.
"FIIs are taking long position slowly slowly at lower levels ( from 10 Jan 2011 to till onwards) in stocks futures where they are seeking opportunities .
Long Position in Stock Futures of FIIs
On 10 Jan 2011 - Rs. +462.46 Cr. On 11 Jan 2011 - Rs. +477.11 Cr. On 12 Jan 2011 - Rs. +715.61 Cr
So we can see there is a sharp increase in Long Position in Stock Futures by FIIs on 12 Jan 2011 in comparison to 10 Jan & 11 Jan 2011.
But if see the data of INDEX Future. It is just reverse. In Index Futures FIIs are taking Short Position slowly slowly where they seeking opportunities.
Short Position in Index Futures of FIIs
On 06 Jan 2011 - Rs. +130.62 Cr On 07 Jan 2011 - Rs. -1229.64 Cr On 10 Jan 2011 - Rs. -525.33 Cr On 11 Jan 2011 - Rs. +475.22 Cr On 12 Jan 2011 - Rs. -217.16 Cr
So overall Rs. -1420.29 Cr Short Position in Index Future.
So what these are showing??????????????????????????????
These are showing FIIs are looking further more downside in Index Futures but Long in Stock Futures on holding basis.
What we have seen today in the market, It was just a technical bounce back due to heavy correction in some trading sessions. The Maximum upside is looking in January from 5975 - 6000 (Last dead line for upside). So book Your profits if you have taken long position in lower levels according to your risk/profit level. We should not ignore the today's low of NIFTY Spot which was 5711.30."
The Portugal matter is not quite resolved till now and the meeting on inflation control with the ministers in the presence of Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh was not resultant. IIP data is not in the favor and RBI is also looking to increase interest rates to control the inflation, prices of Onion, tomato, potato, wheat and others base commodities are increasing day by day and oil marketing companies are increasing the oil & gas rates. All these are indicating that fundamental factors are not strong on global as well as domestic level."
For tomorrow on 13 Jan 2011 NIFTY Spot can go up to 5810 on downside. After an again pull back is possible.
NIFTY 6100 Call March Rocks Today, today high was Rs. 153 and closed @ Rs. 143, Buy Call given yesterday @ Rs .115 but activated today, Book your Profit @ Rs. 165 - 180 tomorrow or you can hold for further upside according to your risk level.
I had said yesterday that because of debt crisis in Europe specially on Portugal matter, this pressure can more panic the Indian Market for further clarification and strictly suggested not to take any long position in NIFTY. Firstly watch the NIFTY, see the trend if NIFTY is taking support at definite level then take long position but Stop Loss should be strict. I had suggested Stop Loss 5720 for the current level but NIFTY broke this level today and make the low of 5698.20 in panic situation but finally took support on 5750 on technically. See the movement of NIFTY Spot from 03 Jan 2011 to 11 Jan 2011It is the third time when NIFTY has taken Support at 5750.
NIFTY Spot Movement from 03 Jan 2011 to 11 Jan 2011
NIFTY Spot 6 months Movement from 09-07-2010 to 11-01-2011
"If we see the 6 months movement of NIFTY Spot from 09.07.2010 to 11.01.2011, its clearly states that Ist time on 26 Nov 2010 NIFTY Spot had taken Support on 5751.95 and had become upward to 6011.70 on 02 Dec 2010, IInd time on 09 Dec 2010 NIFTY Spot had taken Support on 5766.50 and had become upward to 6157.60 on 03 Jan 2011, and IIIrd time on 11 Jan 2011 means today again NIFTY Spot has taken Support on 5754.10 and can become upward to 6084.65 on technical basis. But the Global and domestic trend is not looking positive. A technical bounce back is possible from the current level but there should hedge position also. "
So, following position can be taken in NIFTY at Current levels :-
Buy NIFTY 6100 Call March Expiry @ Rs. 115 - 130, Stop Loss Rs. 90 + Buy NIFTY 5600 Put Feb Expiry (Hedge Position) @ Rs. 85 - 100, Stop Loss Rs. 65.
Stop Loss triggered in Short NIFTY 5800 Put Jan Expiry @ Rs. 135 & Buy NIFTY Future Feb Expiry @ 5721.15(Spot Basis Stop Loss), Short Call given @ Rs. 100 - 105 on 10 Jan 2011 and Buy Call Given @ when NIFTY Spot came near to 5778 on 10 Jan 2011.
We have seen huge bloody sessions from some trading sessions specially from 03 Jan 2011 to 10 Jan 2011.
NIFTY Spot Movement from 03 Jan 2011 to 10 Jan 2011
If we see the movement of NIFTY Spot from 20 Dec 2010 to 10 Jan 2011, its clearly states that NIFTY Spot has become under bearish trend. No Support is seeing for further upside.
NIFTY Spot Movement from 20 Dec 2010 to 10 Jan 2011
Major Support on the basis of Last 4 months (Sept 2010 to Dec 2010) was 5846.53, which the NIFTY has broken and also broken 5742.99 on intra-day basis, which is the Major Support on the basis of Last 5 Months (Sept 2010 to Jan 2011). So the Next Major Support is 5496.10 on the basis of Last 5 months and 5692.30 on Jan expiry basis. Overall look is huge bearish trend in NIFTY, NIFTY can go up to 5496.10 if there is more panic but i think NIFTY Spot can take Support on 5725. Because FIIs have Long Position in Index Future of Rs. 525.33 Cr. and Rs. 2085.58 in Index Option according to NSE Derivative Segment data on 10 Jan 2011.
The main reason for this downtrend is
Europe's debt crisis returned to the fore of investor concerns on Monday amid reports Portugal is facing mounting pressure to accept an aid package to prevent contagion to other countries.
Stocks in Europe have fallen sharply as Portugal's market borrowing rates have jumped higher in the wake of the renewed bailout talk.
So, this pressure can more panic the Indian Market for further clarification.
But I Strictly suggest don't take long position in NIFTY. Firstly watch the NIFTY, see the trend if NIFTY is taking support at definite level then take long position but Stop Loss should be Strict. For the current movement Stop Loss is 5720, if it breaks then exit from the long position.
We are not seeing NIFTY Spot below 5800 by this expiry, so
Short NIFTY 5800 Put Jan Expiry @ Rs. 100 - 105, Stop Loss Rs. 135 + Buy NIFTY Feb Expiry when NIFTY Spot comes near to 5778 with the stop loss of 5721.15.
Today the session was huge bloody. I had suggested yesterday that this downwards are only filling the gap, but i had given 5896, the last dead line for NIFTY Spot and and said that if NIFTY Spot touched and crossed this level then exit from all long position in NIFTY. So what happened, it happened as i said. As NIFTY broke this level as just became panic and touched 5883.60 and broke the Sensitive Stop Loss 5885 on Intra-day Basis, which had suggested on 30 Dec 2010. The Major Support on Jan Expiry Basis for NIFTY Spot is 5846.53, Which had also suggested on 30 Dec 2010. Possible upside if NIFTY Spot will above 5976.46 and also sustain.
If we see the Volatile movement of NIFTY Spot shown in the chart above, its clearly indicates that NIFTY has not only filled the gap between 5986 to 5176 but also come to downward.
If we see the 1 month movement of NIFTY Spot, Its clearly shows that NIFTY making bearish trend and creating the panic situation. If we see the premium of NIFTY Call option of 6000, 6100, 6200 of March Expiry, its clearly shows FIIs and DIIs are making long position in NIFTY in March. So, it is happening just opposite what the people are thinking that from Feb Market will be under downtrend. Big Players are reversing this thinking.
We will see more panic situation in the next week expecting NIFTY Spot can go up to nearer to 5800 but will not break the 5800. Means 80 - 85 Points down from the current level on the basis of trend analysis, but i am expecting 5846.53 is major support for NIFTY Spot so NIFTY can take huge support at this level and try to hold this level on closing basis. If NIFTY cross 5976.46 then we can expect some positive sessions.
Buy NIFTY 5600 Put March Expiry and Short NIFTY 6400 Call Feb Expiry generating Profit, Buy 5600 Put recommended @ Rs. 85, closed today @ Rs. 119 and Short 6400 Call recommended @ Rs. 28.15, closed today @ Rs. 18.
Short NIFTY 5800 Put Feb Expiry @ Rs. 81.75 - 85, Stop Loss Rs. 100, + Buy NIFTY 6200 Call Feb Expiry @ Rs. 85, Stop Loss Rs. 62, + Buy NIFTY 5600 Put March Expiry @ Rs. 87 - 90, Stop Loss Rs. 72, + Short NIFTY 6400 Call Feb Expiry @ Rs. 28.55, Stop Loss Rs. 40.
NIFTY 5 Days Movement from 30 Dec 2010 to 06 Jan 2011
NIFTY 1 Month Movement from 06.12.2010 to 06.01.2011
If we see the 5 Days movement from 30 Dec 2010 to 06 Jan 2011. Its Clearly shows how NIFTY is going to downside. But If see the 1 month movement from 06.12.2010 to 06.01.2011, its clearly shows that how NIFTY has filled the gap from 5986 (on 28 Dec 2010) to 6176 (on 31 Dec 2010) and ready to go on upside.
So don't be panic on downside 5986 is the last deadline for NIFTY. If this level is touched and crossed by NIFTY then exit from long position in NIFTY.
Current Trading Strategy on NIFTY Spot - 05 Jan 2011:-
Short 6100 Put Jan Expiry @ Rs. 82 - 90, Stop Loss Rs. 105, Current Market Price on 05 Jan 2011 at 12:16 pm Rs. 85/- + Long NIFTY 6200 Call Jan Expiry @ Rs. 55 - 65, Stop Loss Rs. 43, Current Market Price on 05 Jan 2011 at 12.20 Pm Rs. 62.65 + Short NIFTY 5800 Put Jan Expiry @ Rs. 15 - 18, Stop Loss Rs. 25/-, Current Market Price on 05 Jan 2011 at 12:21 PM Rs. 18.20.
वर्त्तमान ट्रेडिंग नीति इन निफ्टी स्पाट - 05 जनवरी 2011:- निफ्टी ६१०० की पुट जनवरी एक्स्पिअरी बेचे @ रूपये ८२ - ९० के बीच मे , स्टॉप लास रूपये १०५, + निफ्टी ६२०० की काल जनवरी एक्स्पिअरी खरीदें @ रूपये ५५ - ६५ के बीच मे, स्टॉप लास रूपये ४३, + निफ्टी ५८०० की पुट जनवरी एक्स्पिअरी बेचे @ रूपये १५ - १८ के बीच मे, स्टॉप लास रूपये २५.
Trading Support & Resistance of NIFTY Spot - 05 Jan 2011:- Resistance :- 6176.80, 6207.25, 6233.45 Support :- 6120.15, 6093.95, 6063.50
Break - Even Point :- 6150.60
Last Resistances were suggested on 31 Dec 2010, 6118.05, 6135.25, & 6162.10 all these resistances has broken by NIFTY step by step and the last break - even point was 6090.20. Today on 04 Jan 2011 NIFTY Spot High was 6181.05 but finally break from this level and closed at 6146.35.
निफ्टी स्पोट का सप्पोर्ट एंड रसिस्टेंस - 05 जनवरी 2011 :-
आखिरी रसिस्टेंस 31 दिसम्बर 2010 को बताया गया था जो की 6118.05 , 6135.25 , & 6162.10 था और निफ्टी ने सब को ब्रेक किया . आखिरी ब्रेक - एवें पॉइंट 6090.20 था. आज 04 जनवरी 2011 को निफ्टी स्पोट का हाई 6181.05 था. लेकिन अंतिम मे गिर कर 6146.35 बंद हुआ.
अगर आप का कोई भी प्रश्न निफ्टी से सम्भदित है या किसी और चीज से सम्भदित है, मार्केट के सन्दर्भ मे, तो मुझे संपर्क कर सकते है.
संपर्क करने के लिए आप मुझे मेल कर सकते हैं या फिर आप मुझे sms भी कर सकते है. SMS और Mail करते समय अपने मेसेज मे अपना नाम और अपना व्यसाय जरूर लिखे मतलब की आप ट्रेडर या निवेशक. मेसेज मे अपनी ईमेल आईडी अवश्य लिखें.
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आप सभी को निफ्टी अनाल्य्सिस की तरफ से नव वर्ष की हार्दिक शुभकामनाये. नव वर्ष २०११ से निफ्टी अनाल्य्सिस अब हिंदी भाषा मे भी उपलब्ध होगा. अब से आप सभी ब्लॉग पोस्ट हिंदी व अंग्रेजी दोनों भाषओं मे पढ़ सकेंगे.
ये ब्लॉग उन लोगो के लिए है जो सिर्फ निफ्टी मे काम करते है या निफ्टी मे काम करने के लिए बड़े इच्छुक है. ये ब्लॉग उन निवेशकों और उन ट्रेडरो के लिए है जो अक्सर अपने ब्रोकरों, उप ब्रोकरों, डीलरों तथा रेलाशेनशिप मनेजेरों से धोखा खाते है, उनके बातों मे फस कर अपनी पूंजी बर्बाद करते है. ये लोग सिर्फ ब्रोकरेज जनरेट करने की लिए अपने कस्टमर को घुमाते है और उनकी पूंजी से वोलूम कर के खूब ब्रोकरेज जनरेट करते है. ये कभी उनका फायदा नहीं सोचते है.
ये ब्लॉग इसलिए बनाया गया है ताकि लोग पहले इनचीजों को समझें और मार्केट मे काम करने के सही तरीके को सीखें.
फिर से आप सभी को नव वर्ष की हार्दिक बधाईयाँ..........
Happy New Year to everyone from NIFTY ANALYSIS. Now NIFTY ANALYSIS will be available in Hindi language from this new year 2011. Now you can read all posts in the blog in both Hindi and English language.
This blog is only for those who trades in NIFTY or having interest to trade. This blog is for those investors and traders who are not only cheated from their Brokers, Sub-brokers, Dealers and Relationship Managers but also manipulated by them and lose their capital. They are only generate brokerage and mislead the clients. They do only volume to generate brokerage with capital of client, they never think about the profit of clients.
This blog has created because people must understand this things and should understand the right way to trade in the market.
