WE SAW HOW NIFTY CAME ON UP SIDE ON SPECIAL TRADING SESSION CONDUCTED BY NSE ON SATURDAY, 28 APRIL 2012 CLOSE +18.40 POINTS UP, +0.35% UP. ANOTHER THING WE SAW IN SPECIAL TRADING SESSION THAT IS INDEX WAS TRADING IN DISCOUNT IN EARLIER TRADING SESSIONS BUT IT GOT PREMIUIM IN SPECIAL TRADING SESSION.
NOW LET'S COME ON SOME MAGICAL ANALYSIS :-
ON LOW BASIS :-
NIFTY SPOT CHART ON LAST 6 MONTHS SERIES LOW BASIS FROM NOV 2011 TO APRIL 2012
AFTER ANALYZING THE CHART IT IS CLEAR THAT STABILITY IN NIFTY SPOT CAN BE SEEN FROM 4639.10 TO 4588.05 FROM NOV 2011 TO JAN 2012 ON SERIES LOW BASIS, AND AFTER THIS STABILITY A SUDDEN JUMPED SAW IN THE MARKET TO 5159. NOW AGAIN SAME STABILITY IN THE NIFTY SPOT CAN BE SEEN FROM 5159 TO 5154.30 FROM FEB 2012 TO APRIL 2012 ON SERIES LOW BASIS. MEANS NIFTY SPOT IS PREPARING FOR ITS SELF FOR AGAIN SUDDEN JUMP.
NIFTY SPOT NOV 11 SERIES LOW @ 4639.10 NIFTY SPOT DEC 11 SERIES LOW @ 4531.15 NIFTY SPOT JAN 12 SERIES LOW @ 4588.05 NIFTY SPOT FEB 12 SERIES LOW @ 5159 NIFTY SPOT MARCH 12 SERIES LOW @ 5135.95 NIFTY SPOT APRIL 12 SERIES LOW @ 5154.30
NIFTY SPOT 200 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE @ 5125.14
THE AVERAGE LOW OF NIFTY SPOT OF ALL THREE SERIES IS @ 5149.75 WHICH IS BELOW THE 200 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE @ 5125.14, MEANS TO SAY FROM LAST THREE SERIES (FEB 2012 TO APRIL 2012) NIFTY SPOT HAS FAILED TO BREACH THE 200 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE .
ANOTHER THING IS THAT FROM 1ST THREE SERIES FROM NOV 11 TO JAN 12 NIFTY SPOT SERIES LOW BETWEEN 4500 TO 4650 AND 2ND THREE MONTHS BETWEEN 5100 - 5160. SO EARLIER IT WAS TAKING SUPPORT AROUND @ 4500 - 4650 AND NOW TAKING SUPPORT AROUND @ 5100 - 5160.
ON HIGH BASIS :-
NIFTY SPOT CHART ON LAST 6 MONTHS SERIES HIGH BASIS FROM NOV 2011 TO APRIL 2012
AFTER ANALYZING THE CHART IT IS CLEAR THAT TWO BULLISH FLAG IS SEEING 1ST IS 5326.45 TO 5100 AND AFTER MAKING THE 1ST BULLISH FLAG WE SAW NEW HIGH @ ABOVE 5600 IN FEB 2012 SERIES AND AGAIN 2ND BULLISH FLAG HAS MADE FROM 5629.95 TO 5378.75, NOW LOOKING FOR AGAIN NEW HIGH ON SERIES HIGH BASIS.
NIFTY SPOT NOV 11 SERIES HIGH @ 5326.45 NIFTY SPOT DEC 11 SERIES HIGH @ 5099.25 NIFTY SPOT JAN 12 SERIES HIGH @ 5217 NIFTY SPOT FEB 12 SERIES HIGH @ 5629.95 NIFTY SPOT MARCH 12 SERIES HIGH @ 5499.40 NIFTY SPOT APRIL 12 HIGH @ 5378.75
NIFTY SPOT 50 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE @ 5311.23
THE AVERAGE HIGH OF NIFTY SPOT OF ALL THE SERIES @ 5358.46 WHICH IS ABOVE THE 50 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE.
ANOTHER THING IS THAT IN NOV 11 SERIES HIGH @ 5326.45 AND APRIL 12 SERIES HIGH @ 5378.75. MEANS WE TOUCHED THE LAST 6 MONTHS NOV 11 SERIES HIGH AGAIN.
NOW LET'S COME SOME OTHER MAGICAL ASPECT OF ANALYSIS :-
FOR THIS TYPE OF ANALYSIS WE NEED THE THREE DATA.
1ST SERIES HIGH, 2ND SERIES LOW, 3RD SERIES CLOSE.
1ST STEP :- SERIES HIGH, LOW, AND CLOSE OF NIFTY SPOT OF LAST 6 MONTHS FROM NOV 2011 TO APRIL 2012 :-
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
HIGH
5326.45
5099.25
5217.00
5629.95
5499.40
5378.75
LOW
4639.10
4531.15
4588.05
5159.00
5135.95
5154.30
CLOSE
4832.05
4624.30
5199.25
5385.20
5295.55
5209.00
2ND STEP :- NOW TAKE THE AVERAGE OF HIGH & LOW OF EACH MONTH :-
AVERAGE OF EACH MONTH ON
THE BASIS OF HIGH & LOW OF EACH MONTH
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
AVERAGE
4982.7
4815.2
4902.5
5394.47
5317.67
5266.52
3RD STEP :- COMPARE THE AVERAGE & HIGH OF NEXT MONTH :-
COMPARISON OF AVERAGE
& HIGH OF OF THE NEXT EACH MONTH FROM NOV 2011 TO APRIL 2012
Nov-11
Dec-11 High
Dec-11
Jan-12 High
Jan-12
Feb-12 High
Feb-12
Mar-12 High
Mar-12
April-12 High
Apr-12
May-12 High
AVERAGE
4982.7
5099.25
4815.2
5217
4902.5
5629.95
5394.47
5499.4
5317.67
5378.75
5266.52
Above @ 5266.52
AFTER COMPARISON OF AVERAGE & HIGH OF EACH NEXT MONTH , IT IS CLEAR THAT THE HIGH OF EACH NEXT MONTH IS GREATER THAN THE AVERAGE. SO, APRIL 2012 AVERAGE IS 5266.52 MEANS HIGH OF MAY 2012 SERIES WILL BE GREATER THAN THE AVERAGE WHICH IS @ 5266.52, NOW NIFTY SPOT CMP @ 5209, SO THERE IS 100% OPPORTUNITY TO GRAB REMAINING +57.52 POINTS.
ANOTHER THING IS THAT WHICH CAN'T BE IGNORE THAT WHATEVER BE LOW OF THE EACH NEXT MONTH BUT HIGH IS ALWAYS GREATER THAN AVERAGE.
SO, HERE IS GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BET ON UP SIDE WITH KEEPING STOP LOSS @ 5130 ON NIFTY SPOT BASIS ON SERIES BASIS.
ON 17TH APRIL 2012 WE SAW THAT IMF REVISED THE GROWTH RATE OF GLOBAL MARKET ON POSITIVE SIDE @ 3.1% AND WE SAW A SHARP UPSIDE RALLY IN GLOBAL MARKETS AS NASDAQ WAS +2%, DOWJONS WAS +1.50%, SPAIN +2.28%, CAC 40 WAS +2.72%, AUSTRALIA WAS +2.34%, GERMANY WAS +2.65%, ITALY WAS +3.68%. IF WE LOOK ON FIIs NO, THEN FIIs HAVE COVERED THEIR SHORTS POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE VERY FAST RS. +503.41 CR. AND ALSO BOUGHT IN CASH SEGMENT.
2ND DAY ON 18 APRIL 2012, FIIs AGAIN COVERED THEIR SHORT IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. +589.46 CR. AND ALSO BOUGHT IN CASH SEGMENT RS. 221.63 CR. ON 18 APRIL 2012 FIIs HAD SHORT COVERED NOT ONLY IN NIFTY FUTURE BUT ALSO BOUGHT IN CASH SEGMENT.
IT WAS THE 3RD DAY ON 19TH APRIL 2012 WHEN FIIs AGAIN COVERED THEIR SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. +653.11 CR WHICH WAS MORE THAN THE LAST TWO SHORT COVERS AMOUNT.
TILL 11TH APRIL 2012 FIIs HAD SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -1525.52 CR. @ 5297.56, NOW FIIs HAVE ONLY RS. -294.04 CR SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE TILL 19TH APRIL 2012, CLEARLY SHOWS THAT FIIs HAVE COVERED THEIR SHORT POSITION AFTER 11TH APRIL 2012. ON 12TH APRIL COVERED RS. +192.66 CR., ON 13TH APRIL 2012 COVERED RS. +214.50 CR, ON 16TH APRIL 2012 SOLD RS. -333.58 CR, ON 17TH APRIL 2012 COVERED RS. +503.41 CR, ON 18TH APRIL 2012 COVERED RS. 589.46 CR, ON 19TH APRIL 2012 COVERED RS. 653.11 CR WHICH IS HIGHEST COVERED AMOUNT IN LAST ONE. NOW TOTAL NET SHORT COVERED AMOUNT RS. +1819.56 CR. @ 5253.65 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL AND SHORT POSITION WAS RS. -1525.52 CR. TILL 11TH APRIL 2012 @ 5297.56, MEANS CLEARLY SHOWING THAT WHATEVER THE SHORT POSITION HAD TAKEN @ 5297.56 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL HAVE BOOKED MAJOR PORTION @ 5253.56 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. MEANS FIIs HAVE BOOKED PROFIT IN MAJOR PART OF SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE. AND WHATEVER THE REMAIN POSITION IS THERE WILL BE BOOKED FURTHER, THAT'S WHY WE ARE SEEING THAT WHEN NIFTY GOES DOWN THEN BOUNCE BACK IS SEEN AND ALSO TRADING IN TIGHT RANGE WITH UPWARD DIVERGENCE.
TOMORROW ON 17TH APRIL 2012 IS RBI POLICY. MARKET IS EXPECTING THAT RBI CAN CUT THE RATE BUT AS INFLATION AS CONCERN WHICH IS NOT THE EXPECTATION OF THE RBI, AND RBI HAS ALSO REDUCED THE GDP NOS @ 7.2%. ACCORDING TO THE RBI ACT, THE MAIN AIM OF RBI IS TO CONTROL THE INFLATION AND BALANCE THE LIQUIDITY IN THE MARKET. AS WE ARE SEEING HOW MUCH DOLLAR IS BECOMING STRONG IN TERMS OF RUPEE WHICH WILL CREATE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
AND GOVERNMENT HAS REDUCED THE EXPORT DATA, ITS DATA ON EXPORTS LAST YEAR. (IN DECEMBER, COMMERCE
SECRETARY ANNOUNCED A $9.4 BILLION CORRECTION IN EXPORTS DATA FOR APRIL-OCTOBER
2011 DUE TO A COMPUTER CRASH AND DATA ENTRY ERRORS.)
INDIA’S CHIEF
STATISTICIAN, TCA ANANT, IN THE TELEVISION INTERVIEWS SAYS, “THESE THINGS AT AN
INDIVIDUAL INDUSTRY LEVEL CAN HAPPEN. IT IS VERY HARD TO EXPLAIN WHAT THE
REASON BEHIND IT IS, BUT THESE DO HAPPEN. SO WE DO NOT ADVISE PEOPLE TO USE THE
IIP AS GUIDES AT THE PRODUCT LEVEL.”
IMPORT HAS DOUBLED ALSO.
AS NOTHING IS GOING TO POSITIVE IN EURO ZONE, CHINA AND IN AMERICAN ECONOMY. AS WE HAVE SEEN DROP CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN AMERICA, POOR CHINESE ECONOMIC DATA, DEBT & LIQUIDITY CRISIS IN SPAIN AND GERMANY. ALL THESE HAVE DIRECT RELATION TO IMPORT AND EXPORT ON INDIA ALSO.
CARE CREDIT RATING AGENCY IS EXPECTED THAT RBI WILL NOT CUT THE RATE.
THE RESERVE BANK OF INDIA (RBI) SAID INFLATION WAS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR CURRENT LEVELS DURING THE FISCAL YEAR, WITH RISKS STILL TO THE UPSIDE, SOUNDING A CAUTIOUS NOTE A DAY BEFORE IT IS EXPECTED TO CUT ITS POLICY INTEREST RATE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THREE YEARS.
EARLIER ON MONDAY, INDIA REPORTED ANNUAL WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX (WPI) INFLATION FOR MARCH AT 6.89%, MAINLY DRIVEN BY HIGHER FOOD PRICES, EXCEEDING FORECASTS. "WHILE INFLATION HAS MODERATED, RISKS TO INFLATION ARE STILL ON THE UPSIDE," THE RBI SAID IN A REPORT.
LET'S COME ON FIIs NUMBERS ON RBI RATE CUT HOPE :-
TODAY ON 16 APRIL 2012 FIIs HAVE NOT ONLY BOOKED PROFIT IN LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE @ 5207.45 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVELS WHICH WAS TAKEN ON LAST FRIDAY ON 13 APRIL 2012 BUT ALSO HAVE TAKEN SHORT POSITION, SOLD RS. -333.58 CR. AND FIIs HAVE SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT ALSO RS. -509.43 CR. ALL THESE SELLING DATA BEFORE POLICY CLEAR SHOWS THAT FIIs ARE NOT LOOKING ANY POSITIVE SIDE FROM RBI THAT'S FIIs NOT BOOKED THE PROFIT IN LONG POSITION BUT ALSO TOOK SHORT POSITION AND SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT ALSO.
FIRSTLY LOOK KEEP EYE ON INFLATION THAT WHAT IS INFLATION AND HOW IS IT CALCULATED :-
What is inflation?
Inflation rate is the rate at which prices of
goods and services increase in its economy. It is an indication of the rise in
the general level of prices over time. Since it's practically impossible to
find out the average change in prices of all the goods and services traded in
an economy due to the sheer number of goods and services present, a sample set
or a basket of goods and services is used to get an indicative figure of the
change in prices, which we call the inflation rate.
How does India calculate inflation?
In India, inflation is calculated on a weekly
basis. India uses the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) to calculate and then decide
the inflation rate in the economy.
WPI was first published in 1902, and was one of
the more economic indicators available to policy makers until it was replaced
by most developed countries by the Consumer Price Index in the 1970s.
WPI is the index that is used to measure the
change in the average price level of goods traded in wholesale market. In
India, a total of 435 commodities data on price level is tracked through WPI
which is an indicator of movement in prices of commodities in all trade and
transactions. It is also the price index which is available on a weekly basis
with the shortest possible time lag only two weeks. The Indian government has
taken WPI as an indicator of the rate of inflation in the economy.
Characteristics of WPI :-
Following are the few characteristics of
Wholesale Price Index:
WPI uses a sample set of 435 commodities for inflation
calculation
The price from wholesale market is taken for the calculation
WPI is available for every week
It has a time lag of two weeks, which means WPI of the week two
weeks back will be available now
KEEP EYE ON INDIA INFLATION RATE :-
The inflation rate in India was last reported at
8.8 percent in February of 2012. From 1969 until 2010, the average inflation
rate in India was 7.99 percent reaching an historical high of 34.68 percent in
September of 1974 and a record low of -11.31 percent in May of 1976. Inflation
rate refers to a general rise in prices measured against a standard level of
purchasing power. The most well known measures of Inflation are the CPI which
measures consumer prices, and the GDP deflator, which measures inflation in the
whole of the domestic economy.
INDIAN INFLATION RATE ON CHARTS :-
INDIAN INFLATION TREND FROM 1969
TO 2012 ON EVERY 8 YEARS BASIS
INDIAN INFLATION FROM 2006 TO 2012
INDIAN INFLATION RATE FROM 2010 TO 2012
CHART ANALYSIS:-
AFTER ANALYZING THE ABOVE CHARTS IT IS CLEAR THAT INDIAN
INFLATION RATE IS LOOKING FOR DOWNWARDS. BEARISH TREND IS LOOKING ON CHARTS.
INDIAN INFLATION RATE CHART FROM 1969 TO 2012 SHOWS THAT HOW MUCH INFLATION WAS
VOLATILE IN LAST 42 YEARS AND THREE MAJOR FALL SHOWS ALSO. INDIAN INFLATION
CHARTS FROM 2006 TO 2012 SHOWS THAT BEARISH HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN HAS
MADE ON CHARTS CLEARLY INDICATES INFLATION WILL BE DOWN IN COMING COUPLE OF
MONTHS. IN THE MONTH OF FEB 2012 IT WAS @ 8.8%, SO IT IS EXPECTING THAT
INFLATION IN MARCH 2012 WILL BE BELOW 8%, IF IT COMES BELOW 8% THEN IT WILL
POSITIVE FOR THE ECONOMY.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS :-
Reuters Poll :-
India's wholesale price inflation rate likely slowed marginally in
March as easing price pressures from non-food items offset persistently high
food and fuel costs, a Reuters poll showed.
The median consensus from a survey of 30 economists pinned expectations
for headline inflation at 6.70 percent for March from a year ago, under the
higher-than-expected 6.95 percent recorded in February.
After staying above the 9 percent mark for a year, inflation
started cooling last November and hit a 26-month low of 6.55 percent in
January, stoking market expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India
(RBI). But with global oil prices soaring and Brent oil futures hovering
stubbornly near the $120 mark, the risk of climbing inflation has again appeared.
India is heavily dependent on crude oil imports to meet its fuel
requirements and, as global oil prices rise, higher transportation costs push
up the price of goods. "It is still suppressed inflation in India
(because) the complete global crude oil impact has not been passed to the end
consumer," said Arun Singh, at Dun & Bradstreet, who expects inflation
to remain elevated for at least another month or two.
An increase to the service tax by the government in its March
federal budget may also add to inflationary pressures in the coming months by
pushing up production and input costs. Forecasts in the Reuters survey for
March ranged from 6.30 to 7.02 percent, suggesting that, while inflation is not
about to go off the central bank's radar, it will remain well below the 9
percent levels.
According to Moody's Analytics :-
Senior Economist at Moody’s Analytics Glenn Levine believes the
RBI’s hands are tied with respect to rate cuts if inflation at the wholesale
level continues to remain around the 7% mark.
ICRA View on Inflation :-
ICRA expects headline inflation related to the wholesale price
index (WPI) is likely to have peaked and would decline to around 7.0% by March
2012, unless commodity prices increase sharply in the coming months. However, a
further depreciation of the Indian rupee beyond current levels would exacerbate
inflationary pressures.
So, over all conclusion is Inflation in March 2012 will be below
8% and will be between 7% to 6%
AGAIN BLOOD BATH IN THE MARKET ON 13 APRIL 2012 :-
TODAY WE SAW AGAIN BLACK FRIDAY DIRTY PICTURE, NIFTY BECAME DOWN -69.40 POINTS @ 5207.45 AND DOWN -121.35 POINTS DOWN IN INTRADAY SESSION FROM 5306.75 - 5185.40, WE HAD GIVEN ALERT IN THE MORNING REGARDING THIS IN "MARKET COMMENTARY AND FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK.........13 APRIL 2012". AS WEAKNESS WAS LOOKING FROM THE MORNING SESSION AND INCREASED MORE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO BLOOD BATH SEEN TILL CLOSING.
WHAT WAS THE REASON FOR THE BLOOD BATH :-
INTERNATIONAL FACTOR :-
1. POOR CHINESE ECONOMIC DATA CAME AT 12:39 PM 2. EUROPEAN MARKET NEGATIVITY UP TO -1.1% DOWN DUE TO SOMETHING NEGATIVE NEWS IN EURO ZONE IN SPAN AND GERMANY. GERMANY IS THINKING TO EXIT FROM EURO ZONE.
DOMESTIC FACTOR :-
1. POOR IIP (INDIA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DATA) 2. REVISING THE JAN 2012 MONTH IIP DATA @ 1.1 FROM 6.8 SHOWS THE TOO MUCH WEAKNESS IN THE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 3. POOR INFOSYS RESULT AND WEAKER NEXT QUARTER GUIDANCE ALSO 4. FIIs (FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS) & DIIs (DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR) SELLING 5. STRONG DOLLAR $ DUE TO HEAVY DEMAND OF DOLLAR IN THE MARKET IN COMPARISON TO WEAKER RUPEE 7. INFLATION PROJECTION HUMOR 8. RBI RATE CUT HUMOR
SO, ALL THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS WERE THE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS BLOOD BATH.
EARLIER ALERT REGARDING THIS WEAKNESS :-
ALERT WAS GIVEN ON THIS BLOODBATH EARLIER ON 26 MARCH 2012 AND FURTHER UPDATES ON 28 MARCH 2012 & 12 APRIL 2012.
ALL THESE REPORTS ARE REAL TIME REPORTS POSTED ON THE BLOG. TO CLICK ON EACH LINK TO SEE THE FULL REPORT :-
NOTE :- THERE WAS ONLY 8 TRADING SESSIONS IN APRIL 2012 FROM 02ND APRIL 2012 TO 13TH APRIL 2012 AND FIIs SOLD IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURES IN 4 TRADING SESSIONS CONTINUOUSLY FROM 4TH APRIL 2012 TO 11TH APRIL 2012 OUT OF 8 TRADING SESSIONS AND BOUGHT IN REMAINING 4 TRADING SESSIONS ON 2,3,12, & 13 APRIL 2012, BUT SELLING AMOUNT WAS RS. -2258.70 CR. WHICH WAS MORE THAN THE BUYING AMOUNT THAT WAS RS. 1140.35 CR ONLY. SELLING PRESSURE WAS ALSO SEEN IN THE CASH SEGMENT ON 9,10, & 11 APRIL 2012 AND TOTAL SELLING AMOUNT WAS IN CASH SEGMENT BY FIIs ON THESE TRADING SESSIONS WAS RS. -1043.87 CR.
ANOTHER ONE THING WHICH WE CAN BE NOT IGNORE THAT FROM LAST SOME TRADING SESSIONS FIIs AND DIIs ARE ON THE SAME TRACK MEANS TO SAY WHATEVER FIIs ARE DOING IN CASH SEGMENT, SAME THING IS DONE BY DIIs ALSO. SO, BOTH INSTITUTIONS ARE ON THE SAME TRACK.
YESTERDAY WE SAW THAT IIP DATA CAME BELOW THE EXPECTATION, MARKET WAS EXPECTING THAT IT WOULD BE @ 6.9% BUT IT CAME @ 4.1%, AND ANOTHER BIG EVENT WAS IS JAN IIP ALSO REVISED @ 1.1% FROM 6.8% WHICH WAS VERY SHOCKING NEWS. ALL THESE THINGS ARE CLEARLY SHOWING THAT SOMETHING IS THERE NEGATIVE WHICH SHOULD BE AND IT WILL AFFECT ON THE INDIAN ECONOMY BADLY, AND WE ALSO SAW BETWEEN ALL THESE MARKET WAS EXPECTING A RATE CUT BY RBI TO SUPPORT GROWTH FACTOR AND IIP ALSO THAT'S WHY MARKET DID NOT BECOME NEGATIVE AND MADE HIGHER AND HIGHER TOP, ANOTHER REASON WAS GLOBAL MARKET WAS ALSO SUPPORTING, YESTERDAY ALL THE GLOBAL MARKETS ARE TRADING HIGHER ON UPSIDE THAT'S WHY WE ARE SEEING THE EFFECT OF THIS POSITIVENESS IN THE MORNING SESSION IN ASIAN MARKET ALSO, BUT NOW TODAY AFTER POSITIVENESS OF TWO DAYS, NOW GLOBAL MARKET IS TRADING NEGATIVE, DOWJONS STILL TRADING WITH -20 POINTS DOWN, NASDAQ 100 FUTURE, S&P 500 FUTURE AND FTSE 100 INDEX ALSO TRADING NEGATIVE.
IF LOOK ON US BOND AND US NOTE WHICH IS TRADING POSITIVE WHICH IS CLEAR INDICATING THAT TODAY AMERICAN MARKET WILL BE TRADING NEGATIVE, IF LOOK UPON CRUDE AND OTHER COMMODITIES THEN AFTER SHARP RALLY IN ALL THESE ALSO TRADING NEGATIVE TODAY, CRUDE OIL IS TRADING NEGATIVE @ $103.27, -0.38% DOWN, COPPER @ USD/ILB 3.67, -0.82% DOWN, SILVER @ $32.22, -0.40% DOWN.
SO OVERALL PICTURE FOR INDIAN MARKET IS RBI RATE CUT IS THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR THE MARKET TO GO ON UPSIDE, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THAT RBI FIRST PRIORITY IS TO CONTROL THE INFLATION NOT TO SUPPORT GROWTH, IF INFLATION DATA COMES HIGHER THAN RBI WILL NOT CUT THE RATE AND MARKET WILL REACT ACCORDINGLY. AND WANT TO NOTIFY FORM LAST SOME TRADING SESSIONS FIIs AND DIIs ARE ON THE SAME TRACK.
POOR IIP DATA OF FEB 2012 4.1@ AND REVISING THE JAN 2012 IIP DATA ON DOWN SIDE TO 1.1 FROM 6.8 IS BAD FOR THE ECONOMY
Industrial Production in India increased 6.8 percent in January of 2012. Industrial production measures changes in output for the industrial sector of the economy which includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Industrial Production is an important indicator for economic forecasting and is often used to measure inflation pressures as high levels of industrial production can lead to sudden changes in prices. From 1994 until 2010, India's industrial production averaged 7.49 percent reaching an historical high of 17.70 percent in December of 2009 and a record low of -0.20 percent in December of 2008. CHART OF IIP FROM 2000 TO 2012 ATTACHED. SEE THE CHART AND ANALYZE THE TREND OF IIP
IIP FROM 2000 TO 2012 (APRIL 2012)
Industrial Production is an economic report that measures changes in output for the industrial sector of the economy. The industrial sector includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Although these sectors contribute only a small portion of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), they are highly sensitive to interest rates and consumer demand. This makes Industrial Production an important tool for forecasting future GDP and economic performance. Industrial Production figures are also used by central banks to measure inflation, as high levels of industrial production can lead to uncontrolled levels of consumption and rapid inflation.
Feb IIP Likely Slowed Slightly: Reuters Poll
Forecasts in the poll ranged from 3.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent, reflecting the notoriously volatile nature of the IIP data
India's February industrial output probably slowed a tad from January's surge, as growth in the manufacturing and consumer non-durables sectors likely moderated, a Reuters poll showed. A survey of 26 economists showed they expect industrial production (IIP) to grow 6.6 percent in February from a year ago, slightly lower on a sequential basis when compared with January's 6.8 percent. Forecasts in the poll ranged from 3.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent, reflecting the notoriously volatile nature of the IIP data. "A lower PMI and easing export growth in February 2012 point towards a moderation of manufacturing growth," saidAditi Nayar, economist at ICRA Ltd, which forecasts a 4.2 percent rate for the month.
India's manufacturing sector expansion, as measured by the purchasing managers' index (PMI), eased slightly in February after hitting an eight-month high in January. Growth in exports moderated in February when compared to January, on the back of sluggish demand for Indian goods in key markets such as the United States and Europe. Signs that the downturn in the euro zone's smaller members has spread to core countries such as Germany and France, combined with weak jobs growth in the United States, have revived doubts about whether their economic recovery is on solid footing. India's industrial output growth painted an optimistic picture in January by clocking its fastest pace in seven months, boosted by strong manufacturing sector activity and a surprise jump in consumer non-durables. The consumer non-durables sector grew by 42.1 percent in January from a year earlier, while manufacturing output, which accounts for 76 percent of industrial production, expanded 8.5 percent in January from 2.6 in December.
Economists said the huge jump in the consumer non-durables number was a one-off event. That kind of boost "is unlikely to be sustained," said ICRA's Nayar. However, India's infrastructure sector output, which accounts for around 38 percent of industrial output, grew by a sharp 6.8 percent in February from a year earlier, much higher than January's on-year increase of 0.7 percent. "The performance of the core sector has been impressive in February, which is going to contribute towards the higher number coming in for the overall IIP," saidMadan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings, who forecasts 6.7 percent IIP growth.
NOW FIIs HAS STARTED TO TAKE SHORT POSITION IN INDEX FUTURE IN NIFTY FUTURE - BE ALERT :-
FIIs POSITION IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURE IN APRIL 2012 SERIES
AFTER ANALYZING THE ABOVE TABLE IT IS CLEAR THAT FIIs HAS STARTED TO TAKE FRESH SHORT POSITION IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURE. FIIs ARE CONTINUOUSLY TAKING SHORT POSITION FROM 04 APRIL 2012.
ON 04 APRIL 2012 - SELL POSITION RS. -168.37 CR
ON 09 APRIL 2012 - SELL POSITION RS. -1091.98 CR
ON 10 APRIL 2012 - SELL POSITION RS. - 687.25 CR
ON 11 APRIL 2012 - SELL POSITION RS. -311.11 CR
TOTAL SELL POSITION IN APRIL SERIES TILL NOW RS. 2256.93 CR @ 5256.93 ON NIFTY SPOT LEVEL.
TOTAL NET SHORT POSITION RS. -1525.52 CR @ 5297.56 ON NIFTY SPOT LEVEL.
FIIs OVERALL POSITION IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURE FROM JAN 2012 TO APRIL 2012 (TILL 11 APRIL 2012)
ABOVE TABLE SHOWS THAT NOW FINALLY FIIs BOOKED PROFIT IN ALL LONG POSITION IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURES WHICH HAD CREATED @ 5164 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL AND BOOKED @ 5330 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS (WAS UPDATED EARLIER SEE 26 MARCH 2012 POST "FIIs ARE BOOKING THEIR PROFITS IN LONG POSITION IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURE VERY FAST ALSO LIQUIDITY IS DECREASING IN CASH SEGMENT BE ALERT..........26 MARCH 2012"). NOW FIIs HAS NET FRESH SHORT POSITION IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURES RS. -810.81 CR. @ 5297.56 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL.
OVER ALL MARKET IS NOT LOOKING POSITIVE AND NOT LOOKING @ 5300 - 5310 NIFTY SPOT.
FIIs POSITION IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURE @ NIFTY SPOT LEVEL ON MONTH BASIS FROM JAN 2012 TO APRIL 2012 (TILL 03RD APRIL 2012)
AFTER ANALYZING THIS TABLE, IT IS CLEAR THAT FIIs HAS OVER NET LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. 1447.90 CR. @ 5222.54 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. AFTER CLEARING THE ACCOUNTS ON FINANCIAL YEAR BASIS FROM 01ST APRIL 2011 TO 31 MARCH 2012 ON INDIAN ACCOUNTING YEAR BASIS,FIIs HAS STARTED AGAIN TAKING LONG POSITION IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURE IN THE STARTING APRIL SERIES. FIIs HAS TAKEN LONG POSITION RS. 733.19 CR @ 5338.20 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL BASIS.
ANOTHER THING IS THAT FIIs HAS STARTED TO BUY IN CASH SEGMENT ALSO. FIIs HAS BOUGHT RS. 578.41 CR. IN CASH SEGMENT IN THE STARTING OF APRIL SERIES. AFTER LONG TIME FIIs AND DIIs HAS BOUGHT TOGETHER IN CASH SEGMENT ON 03RD APRIL 2012. FIIs BOUGHT RS. 332.47 CR. AND DIIs BOUGHT RS. 200.28 CR. IN CASH SEGMENT ON 03RD APRIL 2012, MEANS CLEAR INDICATING THAT BOTH INSTITUTIONS ARE LOOKING SOME POSITIVE UP SIDE IN THE MARKET. SO BUY ON DIP STRATEGY IS SUGGESTED.
ALERT WAS GIVEN ON 17TH MARCH 2012, AFTER GIVING THE ALERT BANK NIFTY SPOT MADE THE LOW @ 9845.40 AND BECAME BOUNCE BACK AND MADE HIGH @ 10502 ON 03RD APRIL 2012. FROM 27TH MARCH 2012 TO 30TH MARCH 2012 BANK NIFTY DAY'S LOW WAS BETWEEN 9981.90 - 9845.
27 MARCH 2012 :- DAY'S LOW @ 9967.55 28 MARCH 2012 :- DAY'S LOW @ 9901.20 29 MARCH 2012 :- DAY'S LOW @ 9845.40
+656.60 POINTS FROM THE LOW OR JOURNEY FROM 9845.40 TO 10502
