RESISTANCE :- 4776.98, 4847.51, 4915.53
SUPPORT :- 4638.43, 4570.41, 4499.88
BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 4708.96
MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF MAINTAINS ABOVE 4708.96
NIFTY VIEW :-
TODAY WE SAW SELLING PRESSURE WAS CONTINUE AND NIFTY SPOT BROKE THE PREVIOUS 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4720 AND MADE THE NEW 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4640.95.
FIIs ARE CONTINUOUSLY SELLING IN NIFTY AND NOT IN MOOD FOR SHORT COVERING. TODAY FIIs HAVE TAKEN SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -1291.36 CR @ 4706.45 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS AND ALSO SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT RS. -1186.46 CR, MEANS IT IS CLEAR SIGNAL FOR PANIC SITUATION AND ALSO INDICATES THAT SHORT COVERING AND BUYING IN CASH SEGMENT @ 4706.45 IS NOT LOOKING IN THE MARKET BY FIIs.
AFTER THE CAREFULLY READING OF THE ABOVE THE TABLE, IT IS CLEAR THAT WHATEVER THE SHORT POSITION HAD CREATED IN SEPT 2011 SERIES HAD COVERED IN OCT 2011 SERIES WITH SOME FRESH LONG POSITION.
IN SEPT 2011 :- OVER ALL NET SHORT POSITION WAS RS. -4562.27 CR. @ 5025.15 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS
IN OCT 2011 :- OVER ALL NET BUYING POSITION WAS RS. +7144.45 CR @ 5045.68 IN WHICH SHORT COVERED AMOUNT WAS RS. 4562.27 (SHORT POSITION TAKEN IN SEPT 2011 SERIES) AND RS. 2582.18 WAS NEW FRESH LONG POSITION TAKEN IN OCT SERIES.
BUT IN NOV 2011 SERIES AGAIN SAW OVER ALL NET SELL POSITION RS. -5384.64 CR @ 5052.23 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL IN WHICH LONG POSITION SOLD AMOUNT RS. 2582.18 (LONG POSITION TAKEN IN OCT 2011 SERIES AND RS. -2802.46 IS FRESH SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE HAS TAKEN IN NOV 2011.
SO NOW FIIs HAS NET SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -2802.46 CR @ 5052.23 ON SEPT 2011, OCT 2011 & NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS. BUT IF WE SEE THE OVER ALL POSITION ON 11 MONTHS BASIS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011 THEN FIIs HAVE NET SHORT POSITION RS. -1597.46 CR @ 5389.08 ON NIFTY SPOT LEVELS.
SO FIIs HAVE SAT ON HOT SEAT AND ALWAYS WIN KBB (KAUN BANEGA BILLION PATI) ON NET PROFIT BASIS. MEANS TO SAY SHORT POSITION HAS TAKE @ 5389.08 ON 11 MONTHS BASIS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011 AND NIFTY SPOT TODAY ON 23 NOV 2011 AT 4706.45 MEANS, FIIs ARE GETTING 5389.08 - 4706.45 = 682.63 POINTS NET PROFIT PER LOT.
IF WE SEE IN THE CASH SEGMENT, THEN WE WILL FIND FIIs HAVE SOLD HEAVY HOLDINGS IN CASH SEGMENT. FIIs HAVE SOLD RS. -22387.62 CR IN 11 MONTHS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011 IN CASH SEGMENT. AND TODAY ON 23 NOV 2011 FIIs HAVE SOLD RS. 1186.46 CR IN CASH SEGMENT, MEANS FIIs ARE NOT LOOKING FOR BUY IN CASH SEGMENT WHEN NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN ITS PREVIOUS 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4720 AND HAS MADE NEW 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4640.95. SO IT IS SHOWING THERE IS NEED TO BE VERY CAUTIOUS IN THE MARKET ON LONG SIDE. BUT KEEP IN MIND IT IS VERY GOOD TIME FOR INVESTMENT IN THE MARKET ON SIP (SYSTEMATIC INVESTMENT PLAN) BASIS IN INDEX STOCKS FOR LONG TERM BASIS ON 3 TO 4 YEAR BASIS. DON'T INVEST 100% HERE AT CURRENT LEVEL @ 4705. INVEST ON EVERY -200 POINTS DOWN IN NIFTY SPOT IN NIFTY STOCKS. AFTER 3 TO 4 YEAR SURLY WILL GET SMART RETURNS.
TILL NOW NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN ALL TYPE OF SUPPORT ON WEEKLY BASIS, MONTHLY BASIS AND 6 MONTHLY BASIS.
ON WEEKLY BASIS NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THE 1ST SUPPORT @ 4752.23, SO IT CAN UP TO 4598.66 - 4360.33 ON WEEKLY BASIS TILL 25 NOV 2011. NIFTY SPOT WILL BE POSITIVE IF ONLY HOLDS AND TRADES ABOVE 4990.56 ON WEEKLY BASIS TILL 25 NOV 2011
ON MONTHLY BASIS NOV 2011 SERIES NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THE 1ST SUPPORT @ 4903.63 ON MONTHLY NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS, SO IT CAN COME UP TO 4480.13 - 4231.96 ON NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS. NIFTY SPOT WILL BE POSITIVE IF ONLY HOLDS AND TRADES ABOVE 5151.53 ON MONTHLY NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS TILL 30 NOV 2011.
ON 6 MONTHLY BASIS FROM MAY 2011 TO OCT 2011 NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THE 1ST SUPPORT @ 4795.46, SO IT CAN COME UP TO 4230.23 - 3740.46 ON NEXT 6 MONTHS BASIS FORM NOV 2011 - APRIL 2012. NIFTY SPOT WILL BE POSITIVE IF HOLDS AND TRADES ABOVE 5285.23 ON NEXT 6 MONTHS BASIS FROM NOV 2011 TO APRIL 2012.
OPTION TRADING STRATEGY (INTRADAY ON 24 NOV 2011) :-
Buy Nifty 4700PE Nov Expiry above 46 for targets of 82, 122 SL - 40
Buy Nifty 4700CE Nov Expiry above 46 for targets of 70, 100 SL - 41
SUPPORT :- 4638.43, 4570.41, 4499.88
BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 4708.96
MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF MAINTAINS ABOVE 4708.96
NIFTY VIEW :-
TODAY WE SAW SELLING PRESSURE WAS CONTINUE AND NIFTY SPOT BROKE THE PREVIOUS 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4720 AND MADE THE NEW 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4640.95.
FIIs ARE CONTINUOUSLY SELLING IN NIFTY AND NOT IN MOOD FOR SHORT COVERING. TODAY FIIs HAVE TAKEN SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -1291.36 CR @ 4706.45 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS AND ALSO SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT RS. -1186.46 CR, MEANS IT IS CLEAR SIGNAL FOR PANIC SITUATION AND ALSO INDICATES THAT SHORT COVERING AND BUYING IN CASH SEGMENT @ 4706.45 IS NOT LOOKING IN THE MARKET BY FIIs.
FIIs EXPOSURE IN NIFTY FUTURE @ NIFTY SPOT LEVELS ON MONTHLY BASIS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011
AFTER THE CAREFULLY READING OF THE ABOVE THE TABLE, IT IS CLEAR THAT WHATEVER THE SHORT POSITION HAD CREATED IN SEPT 2011 SERIES HAD COVERED IN OCT 2011 SERIES WITH SOME FRESH LONG POSITION.
IN SEPT 2011 :- OVER ALL NET SHORT POSITION WAS RS. -4562.27 CR. @ 5025.15 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS
IN OCT 2011 :- OVER ALL NET BUYING POSITION WAS RS. +7144.45 CR @ 5045.68 IN WHICH SHORT COVERED AMOUNT WAS RS. 4562.27 (SHORT POSITION TAKEN IN SEPT 2011 SERIES) AND RS. 2582.18 WAS NEW FRESH LONG POSITION TAKEN IN OCT SERIES.
BUT IN NOV 2011 SERIES AGAIN SAW OVER ALL NET SELL POSITION RS. -5384.64 CR @ 5052.23 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL IN WHICH LONG POSITION SOLD AMOUNT RS. 2582.18 (LONG POSITION TAKEN IN OCT 2011 SERIES AND RS. -2802.46 IS FRESH SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE HAS TAKEN IN NOV 2011.
SO NOW FIIs HAS NET SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -2802.46 CR @ 5052.23 ON SEPT 2011, OCT 2011 & NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS. BUT IF WE SEE THE OVER ALL POSITION ON 11 MONTHS BASIS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011 THEN FIIs HAVE NET SHORT POSITION RS. -1597.46 CR @ 5389.08 ON NIFTY SPOT LEVELS.
SO FIIs HAVE SAT ON HOT SEAT AND ALWAYS WIN KBB (KAUN BANEGA BILLION PATI) ON NET PROFIT BASIS. MEANS TO SAY SHORT POSITION HAS TAKE @ 5389.08 ON 11 MONTHS BASIS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011 AND NIFTY SPOT TODAY ON 23 NOV 2011 AT 4706.45 MEANS, FIIs ARE GETTING 5389.08 - 4706.45 = 682.63 POINTS NET PROFIT PER LOT.
IF WE SEE IN THE CASH SEGMENT, THEN WE WILL FIND FIIs HAVE SOLD HEAVY HOLDINGS IN CASH SEGMENT. FIIs HAVE SOLD RS. -22387.62 CR IN 11 MONTHS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011 IN CASH SEGMENT. AND TODAY ON 23 NOV 2011 FIIs HAVE SOLD RS. 1186.46 CR IN CASH SEGMENT, MEANS FIIs ARE NOT LOOKING FOR BUY IN CASH SEGMENT WHEN NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN ITS PREVIOUS 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4720 AND HAS MADE NEW 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4640.95. SO IT IS SHOWING THERE IS NEED TO BE VERY CAUTIOUS IN THE MARKET ON LONG SIDE. BUT KEEP IN MIND IT IS VERY GOOD TIME FOR INVESTMENT IN THE MARKET ON SIP (SYSTEMATIC INVESTMENT PLAN) BASIS IN INDEX STOCKS FOR LONG TERM BASIS ON 3 TO 4 YEAR BASIS. DON'T INVEST 100% HERE AT CURRENT LEVEL @ 4705. INVEST ON EVERY -200 POINTS DOWN IN NIFTY SPOT IN NIFTY STOCKS. AFTER 3 TO 4 YEAR SURLY WILL GET SMART RETURNS.
TILL NOW NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN ALL TYPE OF SUPPORT ON WEEKLY BASIS, MONTHLY BASIS AND 6 MONTHLY BASIS.
ON WEEKLY BASIS NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THE 1ST SUPPORT @ 4752.23, SO IT CAN UP TO 4598.66 - 4360.33 ON WEEKLY BASIS TILL 25 NOV 2011. NIFTY SPOT WILL BE POSITIVE IF ONLY HOLDS AND TRADES ABOVE 4990.56 ON WEEKLY BASIS TILL 25 NOV 2011
ON MONTHLY BASIS NOV 2011 SERIES NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THE 1ST SUPPORT @ 4903.63 ON MONTHLY NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS, SO IT CAN COME UP TO 4480.13 - 4231.96 ON NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS. NIFTY SPOT WILL BE POSITIVE IF ONLY HOLDS AND TRADES ABOVE 5151.53 ON MONTHLY NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS TILL 30 NOV 2011.
ON 6 MONTHLY BASIS FROM MAY 2011 TO OCT 2011 NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THE 1ST SUPPORT @ 4795.46, SO IT CAN COME UP TO 4230.23 - 3740.46 ON NEXT 6 MONTHS BASIS FORM NOV 2011 - APRIL 2012. NIFTY SPOT WILL BE POSITIVE IF HOLDS AND TRADES ABOVE 5285.23 ON NEXT 6 MONTHS BASIS FROM NOV 2011 TO APRIL 2012.
OPTION TRADING STRATEGY (INTRADAY ON 24 NOV 2011) :-
Buy Nifty 4700PE Nov Expiry above 46 for targets of 82, 122 SL - 40
Buy Nifty 4700CE Nov Expiry above 46 for targets of 70, 100 SL - 41
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