RESISTANCE :- 4805.33, 4854.21, 4937.33 SUPPORT :- 4673.33, 4590.21, 4541.33
BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 4722.21
MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF MAINTAINS ABOVE 4722.21.
NIFTY VIEW :-
TODAY WE SAW NIFTY SPOT HAVE BROKEN THE YESTERDAY 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4640.95 AND HAVE MADE THE AGAIN NEW 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4639.10. FINALLY GOT SOME BOUNCE FROM THE LOWER LEVELS AND MADE THE DAYS HIGH @ 4771.10 AND CLOSED @ 4756.45 BUT THIS BOUNCE WAS NEWS BASED BOUNCE BACK AND THE NEWS WAS :- GERMAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE UNEXPECTEDLY INCREASED. SO NOT LOOKING POSITIVE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
PORTUGAL DOWNGRADE :-
PORTUGAL’S BONDS FELL, WITH 10-YEAR NOTE YIELD CLIMBING 74 BASIS POINTS TO 12.05 PERCENT AFTER FITCH RATINGS CUT THE NATION’S CREDIT RATING ONE STEP TO BB+, THE HIGHEST JUNK STATUS, WITH A NEGATIVE OUTLOOK.
TODAY WHEN NIFTY SPOT HAS MADE A NEW 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4639.10, BUT STILL FIIs HAVE NOT SHORT COVERED IN NIFTY FUTURE, WHILE HAVE SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT ALSO. FIIs SOLD RS. -1639.08 CR HOLDINGS IN CASH SEGMENT WHICH IS THE 2ND HIGHEST SELLING AMOUNT OF THIS YEAR 2011 TIL 24 NOV 2011 IN A DAY, EARLIER FIIs HAD SOLD RS. -2702.20 IN CASH SEGMENT ON 24 FEB 2011. SO FIIs ARE STILL NOT LOOKING POSITIVE.
RESISTANCE :- 4776.98, 4847.51, 4915.53 SUPPORT :- 4638.43, 4570.41, 4499.88
BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 4708.96
MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF MAINTAINS ABOVE 4708.96
NIFTY VIEW :-
TODAY WE SAW SELLING PRESSURE WAS CONTINUE AND NIFTY SPOT BROKE THE PREVIOUS 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4720 AND MADE THE NEW 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4640.95.
FIIs ARE CONTINUOUSLY SELLING IN NIFTY AND NOT IN MOOD FOR SHORT COVERING. TODAY FIIs HAVE TAKEN SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -1291.36 CR @ 4706.45 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS AND ALSO SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT RS. -1186.46 CR, MEANS IT IS CLEAR SIGNAL FOR PANIC SITUATION AND ALSO INDICATES THAT SHORT COVERING AND BUYING IN CASH SEGMENT @ 4706.45 IS NOT LOOKING IN THE MARKET BY FIIs.
FIIs EXPOSURE IN NIFTY FUTURE @ NIFTY SPOT LEVELS ON MONTHLY BASIS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011
AFTER THE CAREFULLY READING OF THE ABOVE THE TABLE, IT IS CLEAR THAT WHATEVER THE SHORT POSITION HAD CREATED IN SEPT 2011 SERIES HAD COVERED IN OCT 2011 SERIES WITH SOME FRESH LONG POSITION.
IN SEPT 2011 :- OVER ALL NET SHORT POSITION WAS RS. -4562.27 CR. @ 5025.15 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS
IN OCT 2011 :- OVER ALL NET BUYING POSITION WAS RS. +7144.45 CR @ 5045.68 IN WHICH SHORT COVERED AMOUNT WAS RS. 4562.27 (SHORT POSITION TAKEN IN SEPT 2011 SERIES) AND RS. 2582.18 WAS NEW FRESH LONG POSITION TAKEN IN OCT SERIES.
BUT IN NOV 2011 SERIES AGAIN SAW OVER ALL NET SELL POSITION RS. -5384.64 CR @ 5052.23 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL IN WHICH LONG POSITION SOLD AMOUNT RS. 2582.18 (LONG POSITION TAKEN IN OCT 2011 SERIES AND RS. -2802.46 IS FRESH SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE HAS TAKEN IN NOV 2011.
SO NOW FIIs HAS NET SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -2802.46 CR @ 5052.23 ON SEPT 2011, OCT 2011 & NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS. BUT IF WE SEE THE OVER ALL POSITION ON 11 MONTHS BASIS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011 THEN FIIs HAVE NET SHORT POSITION RS. -1597.46 CR @ 5389.08 ON NIFTY SPOT LEVELS.
SO FIIs HAVE SAT ON HOT SEAT AND ALWAYS WIN KBB (KAUN BANEGA BILLION PATI) ON NET PROFIT BASIS. MEANS TO SAY SHORT POSITION HAS TAKE @ 5389.08 ON 11 MONTHS BASIS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011 AND NIFTY SPOT TODAY ON 23 NOV 2011 AT 4706.45 MEANS, FIIs ARE GETTING 5389.08 - 4706.45 = 682.63 POINTS NET PROFIT PER LOT.
IF WE SEE IN THE CASH SEGMENT, THEN WE WILL FIND FIIs HAVE SOLD HEAVY HOLDINGS IN CASH SEGMENT. FIIs HAVE SOLD RS. -22387.62 CR IN 11 MONTHS FROM JAN 2011 TO NOV 2011 IN CASH SEGMENT. AND TODAY ON 23 NOV 2011 FIIs HAVE SOLD RS. 1186.46 CR IN CASH SEGMENT, MEANS FIIs ARE NOT LOOKING FOR BUY IN CASH SEGMENT WHEN NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN ITS PREVIOUS 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4720 AND HAS MADE NEW 52 WEEKS LOW @ 4640.95. SO IT IS SHOWING THERE IS NEED TO BE VERY CAUTIOUS IN THE MARKET ON LONG SIDE. BUT KEEP IN MIND IT IS VERY GOOD TIME FOR INVESTMENT IN THE MARKET ON SIP (SYSTEMATIC INVESTMENT PLAN) BASIS IN INDEX STOCKS FOR LONG TERM BASIS ON 3 TO 4 YEAR BASIS. DON'T INVEST 100% HERE AT CURRENT LEVEL @ 4705. INVEST ON EVERY -200 POINTS DOWN IN NIFTY SPOT IN NIFTY STOCKS. AFTER 3 TO 4 YEAR SURLY WILL GET SMART RETURNS.
TILL NOW NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN ALL TYPE OF SUPPORT ON WEEKLY BASIS, MONTHLY BASIS AND 6 MONTHLY BASIS.
ON WEEKLY BASIS NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THE 1ST SUPPORT @ 4752.23, SO IT CAN UP TO 4598.66 - 4360.33 ON WEEKLY BASIS TILL 25 NOV 2011. NIFTY SPOT WILL BE POSITIVE IF ONLY HOLDS AND TRADES ABOVE 4990.56 ON WEEKLY BASIS TILL 25 NOV 2011
ON MONTHLY BASIS NOV 2011 SERIES NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THE 1ST SUPPORT @ 4903.63 ON MONTHLY NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS, SO IT CAN COME UP TO 4480.13 - 4231.96 ON NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS. NIFTY SPOT WILL BE POSITIVE IF ONLY HOLDS AND TRADES ABOVE 5151.53 ON MONTHLY NOV 2011 SERIES BASIS TILL 30 NOV 2011.
ON 6 MONTHLY BASIS FROM MAY 2011 TO OCT 2011 NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THE 1ST SUPPORT @ 4795.46, SO IT CAN COME UP TO 4230.23 - 3740.46 ON NEXT 6 MONTHS BASIS FORM NOV 2011 - APRIL 2012. NIFTY SPOT WILL BE POSITIVE IF HOLDS AND TRADES ABOVE 5285.23 ON NEXT 6 MONTHS BASIS FROM NOV 2011 TO APRIL 2012.
OPTION TRADING STRATEGY (INTRADAY ON 24 NOV 2011) :- Buy Nifty 4700PE Nov Expiry above 46 for targets of 82, 122 SL - 40
Buy Nifty 4700CE Nov Expiry above 46 for targets of 70, 100 SL - 41
LOW RISK TAKER STRATEGY :- BUY NIFTY 5400 CALL JAN 2012 EXPIRY @ RS. 17 + BUY NIFTY 4200 PUT JAN 2012 EXPIRY @ RS. 53.50.
RISK :- 70.50 REWARD :- UNLIMITED BREAK - EVEN POINT :-
UPPER BREAK - EVEN POINT :- STRIKE PRICE OF LONG CALL + NET PREMIUM PAID STRIKE PRICE OF LONG CALL :- 5400 NET PREMIUM PAID :- 70.50
UPPER BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 5400 + 70.50 = 5470.50
LOWER BREAK - EVEN POINT :- STRIKE PRICE OF LONG PUT - NET PREMIUM PAID STRIKE PRICE OF LONG PUT :- 4200 NET PREMIUM PAID :- 70.50 LOWER BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 4200 - 70.50 = 4129.50
ANALYSIS FOR LOW RISK TAKER STRATEGY :-
AFTER READING THE ABOVE TABLE IT IS CLEAR THAT RED PORTION IS SHOWING IF NIFTY SPOT CLOSES ON EXPIRY BETWEEN 4150 - 5450, THEN LOSS WILL BE THERE UP TO RS. 70.50 PER LOT. AND UNLIMITED PROFIT WILL BE MAKING WHEN NIFTY SPOT CLOSES ON EXPIRY BETWEEN 5500 - 5800 OR UPPER LEVELS FOR UPSIDE AND NIFTY SPOT CLOSES ON EXPIRY BETWEEN 4100 - 3800 OR BELOW LEVELS FOR DOWNSIDE.
MODERATE RISK TAKER STRATEGY :-
BUY NIFTY 5200 CALL JAN 2012 EXPIRY @ RS. 48.50 + BUY NIFTY 4400 PUT JAN 2012 EXPIRY @ RS. 86.
RISK :- 134.50 REWARD :- UNLIMITED BREAK - EVEN POINT :-
UPPER BREAK - EVEN POINT :- STRIKE PRICE OF LONG CALL + NET PREMIUM PAID STRIKE PRICE OF LONG CALL :- 5200 NET PREMIUM PAID :- 134.50
UPPER BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 5200 + 134.50 = 5334.50
LOWER BREAK - EVEN POINT :- STRIKE PRICE OF LONG PUT - NET PREMIUM PAID STRIKE PRICE OF LONG PUT :- 4400 NET PREMIUM PAID :- 134.50 LOWER BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 4400 - 134.50 = 4265.50
HIGH RISK TAKER STRATEGY :- BUY NIFTY 4600 PUT JAN 2012 EXPIRY @ RS. 140 + BUY NIFTY 5000 CALL JAN 2012 EXPIRY @ RS. 109.
RESISTANCE :- 4850.05, 4887.75, 4921.50 SUPPORT :- 4778.6, 4744.85, 4707.15
BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 4816.30
MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF MAINTAINS ABOVE 4816.30
FIIs HAVE TAKEN CONTINUOUSLY SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE FROM 15-NOV-2011 TO 18 NOV 2011 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVELS FROM 5068 - 5030.45 - 4934.75 - 4905.8. AND WHEN NIFTY SPOT IS TRADING AROUND 52 WEEKS LOW, THEN STILL FIIs ARE NOT IN MOOD TO SHORT COVER. FROM LAST TWO TRADING SESSIONS FROM 21 NOV 2011 TO - 22 NOV 2011, FIIs HAVE COVERED THEIR SHORTS IN NIFTY BUT THIS SHORT COVERING IS NOT UP TO THE MARK MEANS TO SAY NOT STRONG TRIGGER FOR UPSIDE IN NIFTY BECAUSE THE SHORT COVERING AMOUNT IS ON 21 NOV 2011 RS. 169.21 CR @ 4778.35 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL AND ON 22 NOV 2011 RS. 108.96 CR @ 4812.35 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS. SO NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS.
RESISTANCE :- 5144.13, 5382.46, 5536.03 SUPPORT :- 4752.23, 4598.66, 4360.33
BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 4990.56
MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF MAINTAINS ABOVE 4990.56
NIFTY HAS MADE THE AGAIN NEW LOW IN LAST TRADING SESSION OF THE WEEK FROM 14 NOV 2011 TO 15 NOV 2011 @ 4837.95. IT HAD SAID THAT SOME SHORT COVERING IS EXPECTED IS FROM 4811 - 4870, YESTERDAY ON 18 NOV 2011 NIFTY SPOT MADE THE LOW @ 4837.95 AND DID BOUNCE BACK FROM THIS LEVEL AND FINALLY CLOSED NEAR THE DAYS HIGH @ 4905.80, DAYS HIGH @ 4915.90. BUT IT HAD ALSO SAID THAT NIFTY SPOT HAS MONTHLY SUPPORT OF NOV SERIES @ 4903.63 AND NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THIS SUPPORT, SO NIFTY SPOT CAN TOUCH UP TO 4600 IN THE NEAR FUTURE, BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER SOME BOUNCE BACK RALLY. SO IF NIFTY SPOT GOES ON UPSIDE THEN USE THIS UP RALLY FOR SHORTS. NIFTY SPOT WILL BE POSITIVE IF TRADES ABOVE 5151. BUT HEAVY SHORT POSITIONS HAS CREATED BY FIIs IN NIFTY FUTURE IN NOV SERIES RS. -3723.30 CR @ 5187.95. SO NIFTY SPOT IS NOT LOOKING ABOVE 5200 IN ANY CASE IN NOV SERIES. MAXIMUM UPSIDE RALLY IS EXPECTED TO 5075 - 5120. SO BE CAUTIOUS.....PLEASE DON'T BELIEVE IN ANY BOUNCE BACK AS TO TAKE FRESH LONG.
RESISTANCE :- 5007.88, 5081.01, 5125.23 SUPPORT :- 4890.53, 4846.31, 4773.18
BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 4963.66
MARKET OUT LOOK :- POSITIVE IF MAINTAINS ABOVE 4963.66
NIFTY VIEW :- HUGE SELLING PRESSURE SAW YESTERDAY ON 17 NOV 2011. NIFTY SPOT BECAME DOWN MORE THAN -90 POINTS AND CLOSED AT 4934.75. NIFTY SPOT HAS BROKEN THE ALL WEEKLY MAJOR SUPPORTS AT 5105.56 - 5034.28 AND ALSO BROKE THE 3RD SUPPORT @ 4926.31 AND HAS MADE THE LOW @ 4919.45. NOW NIFTY SPOT HAS MONTHLY SUPPORT ON NOV SERIES BASIS @ 4903.63. IF IT BREAKS THEN IT WILL BE CLEAR SIGNAL FOR PANIC SITUATION IN THE MARKET AND CAN COME UP TO 4480.13, BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT HUGE VOLATILE RANGE WILL BE THERE. SOME BOUNCE BACK IS EXPECTED UP TO 150 - 200 POINTS ON UP SIDE IN NIFTY SPOT FROM 4811 - 4870 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS. SO TRADE WITH STRICT STOP LOSSES AND BE ON HEDGE SIDE TO BE SAFE. FROM LAST THREE TRADING SESSION FIIs ARE SELLING IN NIFTY FUTURE.
ON 15 NOV 2011 :- FIIs SOLD IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -924.48 CR @ 5068
ON 16 NOV 2011 :- FIIs SOLD IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -827.57 CR @ 5030.45
ON 17 NOV 2011 :- FIIs SOLD IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -1076.01 CR @ 4934.75
SO IN LAST THREE TRADING SESSION FROM 15 NOV 2011 TO 17 NOV 2011, FIIs SOLD NIFTY FUTURE RS. -2831.06 @ 5011.06 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS. IN THE MONTH OF NOV 2011 FIIs HAS SOLD NIFTY FUTURE IN MAXIMUM NO OF TRADING SESSION.
TOTAL BUY IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. 1627.82 CR. @ 5235.73 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS FROM 01 NOV 2011 TO 17 NOV 2011
TOTAL SELL IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -5351.12 CR. @ 5140.06 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS FROM 01 NOV 2011 TO 17 NOV 2011
SO NET SELL IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -3723.30 CR IN NIFTY FUTURE @ 5187.95 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS. SO FINALLY NIFTY SPOT IS NOT LOOKING ABOVE 5200 IN ANY CONDITION IN NOV 2011 SERIES.
BUT SOME SHORT COVERING IS EXPECTED, BECAUSE EVERY 150 - 200 POINTS DOWN FIIs SHORT COVER THEIR SELLING POSITION.
OPTION STRATEGY :-
Buy Nifty 4900PE Nov Expiry above 57 for targets of 74, 91 SL - 47 Buy Nifty 5000CE Nov Expiry above 59 for targets of 82, 123 SL - 52
CAUTION :- TRADE WITH STRICT STOP LOSS AND BE ON HEDGE SIDE TO BE SAFE.