Major Support of NIFTY Spot :- 5254.11, 4996.08, 4532.61
On the basis of Major Support If NIFTY Spot Breaks 5254.11 then the next Major Support will be 4996.08. Earlier on 09 Feb 2011 NIFTY had broken the 1 Year Support that was 5275.62, on that date I had suggested that NIFTY Spot can go up to 5066.02 which is support on 2 year basis but after making the low of 5177 on 10 Feb 2011 NIFTY Spot became bounce from this level and made the high of 5546.45 on closing basis on 17 Feb 2011. Today on 24 Feb 2011 NIFTY Spot broke the first major support which was 5254.11 and made the low level 5242.50 and covered from that level and finally closed at 5262.70.
Today FIIs have sold Stocks in Spot or cash market worth Rs. -2702.20 which is the highest selling amount in 2011 as well as 2010.
See what the FIIs have done in Index Futures including NIFTY Future as well as in Spot also in last 4 days in Feb 2011 from 21 Feb 2011 to 24 Feb 2011 :-
If we see the last 4 days of FIIs in Index Futures and Spot from 21 Feb 2011 to 24 Feb 2011. Its clearly states that FIIs have taken short positions continuously and sold the stock positions also. In these last 4 days the total selling amount in Index Futures is Rs. -2475.44 Cr. ,which is Short Position have taken by FIIs and the total selling amount in Spot is Rs. -3888.5 Cr. All these positions have taken @ 5421.96 on average NIFTY Spot level basis.
So, means to say on upside NIFTY Spot is not looking above 5430.
If we see the below chart of NIFTY Spot from 21 Feb 2011 to 24 Feb 2011, its clearly states that FIIs have started creating fresh short position in Index Futures including NIFTY Future at ending of Feb 2011 expiry and no support is looking around downside. So more downside is there.
If we see the what FIIs have done in 2011 till 24 Feb 2011. See what the FIIs have done in 2011 :-
If we see the above table its clearly states that what the FIIs have created short Position in Index Futures including NIFTY Futures in Jan 2011 that is Rs. -4257.23 Cr @ 5732.31 NIFTY Spot level are not in mood to short cover this position at 5409 as well as the current level which is 5262.70.
Today on 24 Feb 2011 FIIs did not cover their short position when today NIFTY Spot was down -175 Points at 5262.70. So what does it mean???? It means they want to short cover this position below 5262.70 on Spot basis. If we see the history of FIIs Trading in Index Futures in 2011, its clearly states whenever FIIs created short position on trading basis they covered this short position on average of -200 Points down in NIFTY Spot. I have already mentioned the data regrading this in 09 Feb 2011 Post, check the post of 09 Feb 2011 regarding for clarification. So less -200 points in NIFTY Spot at Current level means to say 5262.70 - 200 = 5062.70, we will see NIFTY Spot at this level in coming days.
Fundamentally serious condition in Libya occurring now till resolved like Egypt and some other countries like Yemen, Jakarta also facing the same problem like in Liberia. So all these serious global matters will panic the market further. It will directly impact on the Crude Oil and expected to hike 113 on NYMX . So be alert now this time NIFTY Spot looking up to 4996.08 on both the technical and fundamental basis.
Be Alerttttttttttttttt..................
On the basis of Major Support If NIFTY Spot Breaks 5254.11 then the next Major Support will be 4996.08. Earlier on 09 Feb 2011 NIFTY had broken the 1 Year Support that was 5275.62, on that date I had suggested that NIFTY Spot can go up to 5066.02 which is support on 2 year basis but after making the low of 5177 on 10 Feb 2011 NIFTY Spot became bounce from this level and made the high of 5546.45 on closing basis on 17 Feb 2011. Today on 24 Feb 2011 NIFTY Spot broke the first major support which was 5254.11 and made the low level 5242.50 and covered from that level and finally closed at 5262.70.
Today FIIs have sold Stocks in Spot or cash market worth Rs. -2702.20 which is the highest selling amount in 2011 as well as 2010.
See what the FIIs have done in Index Futures including NIFTY Future as well as in Spot also in last 4 days in Feb 2011 from 21 Feb 2011 to 24 Feb 2011 :-
FIIs NET POSITION IN INDEX FUTURES & SOPT @ NIFTY SPOT LEVEL BASIS FROM 21 FEB 2011 TO 24 FEB 2011 | |||
DATE | NET SELL POSTITON INDEX FUTURE (RS. IN CR.) | NIFTY SPOT LEVELS | NET SELL POSITION IN SPOT (RS. IN CR.) |
21-Feb-11 | -467.61 | 5518.6 | -245.42 |
22-Feb-11 | -1128.95 | 5469.2 | -386.26 |
23-Feb-11 | -382.26 | 5437.35 | -554.6 |
24-Feb-11 | -496.62 | 5262.7 | -2702.22 |
TOTAL | -2475.44 | NIFTY SPOT @ 5421.96 | -3888.5 |
If we see the last 4 days of FIIs in Index Futures and Spot from 21 Feb 2011 to 24 Feb 2011. Its clearly states that FIIs have taken short positions continuously and sold the stock positions also. In these last 4 days the total selling amount in Index Futures is Rs. -2475.44 Cr. ,which is Short Position have taken by FIIs and the total selling amount in Spot is Rs. -3888.5 Cr. All these positions have taken @ 5421.96 on average NIFTY Spot level basis.
So, means to say on upside NIFTY Spot is not looking above 5430.
If we see the below chart of NIFTY Spot from 21 Feb 2011 to 24 Feb 2011, its clearly states that FIIs have started creating fresh short position in Index Futures including NIFTY Future at ending of Feb 2011 expiry and no support is looking around downside. So more downside is there.
NIFTY SPOT FROM 21 FEB 2011 TO 24 FEB 2011
If we see the what FIIs have done in 2011 till 24 Feb 2011. See what the FIIs have done in 2011 :-
FIIs POSITION IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURE @ NIFTY SPOT LEVEL BASIS | |||
MONTHS | TOTAL NET BUY POSTITON | TOTAL NET SELL POSITION | OVERALL NET LONG/SHORT POSITION |
Jan-11 | Rs. 1789.84 Cr. @ 5758.89 | Rs. 6047.07 Cr. @ 5705.73 | Rs. -4257.23 Cr. @ 5732.31 |
Feb-11 | Rs. 5660.81 Cr. @ 5416.87 | Rs. 5413.03 Cr. @ 5403 | Rs. 247.78 Cr. @ 5409.93 |
If we see the above table its clearly states that what the FIIs have created short Position in Index Futures including NIFTY Futures in Jan 2011 that is Rs. -4257.23 Cr @ 5732.31 NIFTY Spot level are not in mood to short cover this position at 5409 as well as the current level which is 5262.70.
Today on 24 Feb 2011 FIIs did not cover their short position when today NIFTY Spot was down -175 Points at 5262.70. So what does it mean???? It means they want to short cover this position below 5262.70 on Spot basis. If we see the history of FIIs Trading in Index Futures in 2011, its clearly states whenever FIIs created short position on trading basis they covered this short position on average of -200 Points down in NIFTY Spot. I have already mentioned the data regrading this in 09 Feb 2011 Post, check the post of 09 Feb 2011 regarding for clarification. So less -200 points in NIFTY Spot at Current level means to say 5262.70 - 200 = 5062.70, we will see NIFTY Spot at this level in coming days.
Fundamentally serious condition in Libya occurring now till resolved like Egypt and some other countries like Yemen, Jakarta also facing the same problem like in Liberia. So all these serious global matters will panic the market further. It will directly impact on the Crude Oil and expected to hike 113 on NYMX . So be alert now this time NIFTY Spot looking up to 4996.08 on both the technical and fundamental basis.
Be Alerttttttttttttttt..................
Thanks for this kind of analysis. Its really helpful.
ReplyDeleteYou welcome Chirag......
ReplyDelete