BE ALERT - RBI CAN SHOCK THE MARKET TOMORROW IN ITS POLICY.........17 APRIL 2012

TOMORROW ON 17TH APRIL 2012 IS RBI POLICY. MARKET IS EXPECTING THAT RBI CAN CUT THE RATE BUT AS INFLATION AS CONCERN WHICH IS NOT THE EXPECTATION OF THE RBI, AND RBI HAS ALSO REDUCED THE GDP NOS @ 7.2%. ACCORDING TO THE RBI ACT, THE MAIN AIM OF RBI IS TO CONTROL THE INFLATION AND BALANCE THE LIQUIDITY IN THE MARKET. AS WE ARE SEEING HOW MUCH DOLLAR IS BECOMING STRONG IN TERMS OF RUPEE WHICH WILL CREATE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. 

AND GOVERNMENT HAS REDUCED THE EXPORT DATA, ITS DATA ON EXPORTS LAST YEAR. (IN DECEMBER, COMMERCE SECRETARY ANNOUNCED A $9.4 BILLION CORRECTION IN EXPORTS DATA FOR APRIL-OCTOBER 2011 DUE TO A COMPUTER CRASH AND DATA ENTRY ERRORS.)

 INDIA’S CHIEF STATISTICIAN, TCA ANANT, IN THE TELEVISION INTERVIEWS SAYS, “THESE THINGS AT AN INDIVIDUAL INDUSTRY LEVEL CAN HAPPEN. IT IS VERY HARD TO EXPLAIN WHAT THE REASON BEHIND IT IS, BUT THESE DO HAPPEN. SO WE DO NOT ADVISE PEOPLE TO USE THE IIP AS GUIDES AT THE PRODUCT LEVEL.”

IMPORT HAS DOUBLED ALSO.

AS NOTHING IS GOING TO POSITIVE IN EURO ZONE, CHINA AND IN AMERICAN ECONOMY. AS WE HAVE SEEN DROP CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN AMERICA, POOR CHINESE ECONOMIC DATA, DEBT & LIQUIDITY CRISIS IN SPAIN AND GERMANY. ALL THESE HAVE DIRECT RELATION TO IMPORT AND EXPORT ON INDIA ALSO.

CARE CREDIT RATING AGENCY IS EXPECTED THAT RBI WILL NOT CUT THE RATE.

THE RESERVE BANK OF INDIA (RBI) SAID INFLATION WAS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR CURRENT LEVELS DURING THE FISCAL YEAR, WITH RISKS STILL TO THE UPSIDE, SOUNDING A CAUTIOUS NOTE A DAY BEFORE IT IS EXPECTED TO CUT ITS POLICY INTEREST RATE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THREE YEARS.     

EARLIER ON MONDAY, INDIA REPORTED ANNUAL WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX (WPI) INFLATION FOR MARCH AT 6.89%, MAINLY DRIVEN BY HIGHER FOOD PRICES, EXCEEDING FORECASTS. "WHILE INFLATION HAS MODERATED, RISKS TO INFLATION ARE STILL ON THE UPSIDE," THE RBI SAID IN A REPORT.

LET'S COME ON FIIs NUMBERS ON RBI RATE CUT HOPE :-

TODAY ON 16 APRIL 2012 FIIs HAVE NOT ONLY BOOKED PROFIT IN LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE @ 5207.45 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVELS WHICH WAS TAKEN ON LAST FRIDAY ON 13 APRIL 2012 BUT ALSO HAVE TAKEN SHORT POSITION, SOLD RS. -333.58 CR. AND FIIs HAVE SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT ALSO RS. -509.43 CR. ALL THESE SELLING DATA BEFORE POLICY CLEAR SHOWS THAT FIIs ARE NOT LOOKING ANY POSITIVE SIDE FROM RBI THAT'S FIIs NOT BOOKED THE PROFIT IN LONG POSITION BUT ALSO TOOK SHORT POSITION AND SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT ALSO.

SO BE ALERT...