NIFTY ANALYSIS REPORT WITH FIIs TREND ON OVERALL BASIS FROM JAN 11 – JUNE 2011.....02 JULY 2011

NIFTY Spot 5 DAYS TREND FROM 27 JUNE 2011 TO 01 JULY 2011

 

NOTE: - Red line indicates 30 days Moving Average & Blue line indicates the real trend of NIFTY Spot

FIIs Exposure in Index Future including NIFTY Future on 5 days Basis

DATE	NET LONG POSITION	NET SHORT POSITION
	(Rs. In Cr.)	(Rs. In Cr.)
27-Jun-11		-182.77
28-Jun-11	452.26
29-Jun-11	728.28
30-Jun-11	1091.19
1-Jul-11		-133.7

After analyzing the above chart of NIFTY 5 days trend from 27 June 2011 to 01 July 2011, its clear that how NIFTY Spot is rising with stability and trading around 30 days moving average @ 5623.37 and trying to maintain this level. As per above the above table of FIIs Exposure in Index Future including NIFTY Future on 5 days basis, it’s clear that out of 5 trading sessions, FIIs have taken Long position in 3 trading sessions. From 28 June 2011 to 30 June 2011. FIIs have taken long position continuously and remaining two days on 27 June 2011 and 01 July 2011 have sold. These buying show that FIIs are looking positive in the market. 

NIFTY Spot Weekly Trading Support & Resistance from 04 July – 11 to 08 July – 2011:-

NIFTY SPOT WEEKLY TRADING SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FROM  04 JULY - 08 JULY 2011
SYMBOL	RESISTANCE1	RESISTANCE2	RESISTANCE3	BREAK - EVEN POINT	SUPPORT1	SUPPORT2	SUPPORT3
NIFTY SPOT	5743.91	5860.63	6015.46	5589.03	5472.36	5317.53	5200.81

NIFTY Spot Current Index at 5627.20 and will face resistance @ 5743.91, if NIFTY Spot holds @ 5663 and trades above this level at-least 3 days then will surly touch 5840. NIFTY Spot will be positive if holds and maintains above 5589.03 for next 5 days trading sessions from 04 July 2011 to 08 July 2011. As per the overall trend is looking positive because euro nations and private investors are ready to provide 70% financial aid of the required amount to Greece and rest will be beard by IMF at global level. Crude Oil is also looking weak. So all these things will support the market to go up. As FIIs confidence also shows by buying them in Index Futures including NIFTY Future. 

 NIFTY Spot 1 MONTH TREND FROM 01 JUNE 2011 TO 30 JUNE 2011

NOTE: - Red line indicates 30 days Moving Average & Blue line indicates the real trend of NIFTY Spot.

FIIs Exposure in Index Futures including NIFTY Future on 1 Month Basis June 2011

DATE	NET LONG POSITION	NET SHORT POSITION
	(Rs. In Cr.)	(Rs. In Cr.)
1-Jun-11	1290.68
2-Jun-11	135.55
3-Jun-11	33.42
6-Jun-11		-197.5
7-Jun-11	120.85
8-Jun-11		-268.19
9-Jun-11		-391.26
10-Jun-11		-374.71
13-Jun-11		-365.01
14-Jun-11	333.47
15-Jun-11		-457.81
16-Jun-11		-732.24
17-Jun-11		-299.36
20-Jun-11	789.59
21-Jun-11	492.07
22-Jun-11	435.55
23-Jun-11	161.64
24-Jun-11	2787.01
27-Jun-11		-182.77
28-Jun-11	452.26
29-Jun-11	728.28
30-Jun-11	1091.19

 

FIIs Exposure in Index Futures including NIFTY Future on 1 Month Basis June 2011

As per the above chart of NIFTY Spot 1 Month Trend from 01 June 2011 to 30 June 2011, It’s clearly states that on 20 June 2011 NIFTY Spot was @ 5257.89 and on 30 June 2011 it was at 5647.39, means how NIFTY Spot has taken a jump from 5257.89 and touched 5600. Blue line which indicates the real trend of NIFTY Spot is above red line which indicates the 30 days Moving Average. NIFTY Spot 30 days moving Average is 5469.24 and NIFTY Spot at current level @ 5627.20. Means NIFTY Spot is above the moving average and has taken support @ 5469.24. 

If we see the above table and charts of FIIs Exposure in Index Futures Including NIFTY Future on 1 Month Basis June 2011, it’s clearly states that FIIs have shown a big confidence in the market, FIIs have taken long position in 13 trading sessions out of 22 trading sessions in June 2011. Means FIIs have taken index as positive.In June 2011 FIIs overall Net Buy in Index Futures including NIFTY Future is: 5582.71 Cr @ 5473.17. Means FIIs buying average is around 30 days moving average of NIFTY Spot @ 5469.24. So Currently NIFTY Spot is not looking below 5469.24.

NIFTY Spot Monthly Trading Support & Resistance from 01 July 2011 to 30 July 2011:-

NIFTY SPOT MONTHLY TRADING SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FROM  01 JULY 2011 - 31 JULY 2011
SYMBOL	RESISTANCE1	RESISTANCE2	RESISTANCE3	BREAK - EVEN POINT	SUPPORT1	SUPPORT2	SUPPORT3
NIFTY SPOT	5804.9	5962.4	6266.9	5500.4	5342.9	5038.4	4880.9

FIIs EXPOUSER IN INDEX FUTURES INCLUDING NIFTY FUTURE @ NIFTY SPOT LEVEL BASIS
ON MONTH BASIS FROM JAN 2011 TO JUNE 2011
MONTHS	TOTAL NET BUY POSTITON	TOTAL NET SELL POSITION	OVERALL NET LONG/SHORT
Jan-11	Rs. 1789.84 Cr. @ 5758.89	Rs. 6047.07 Cr. @ 5705.73	Rs. -4257.23 Cr. @ 5732.31
Feb-11	Rs. 7381.12 Cr. @ 5416.87	Rs. 5413.03 Cr. @ 5403	Rs. 1968.09 Cr. @ 5409.93
Mar-11	Rs. 12645.53 Cr. @ 5595.86	Rs. 5392.95 Cr. @ 5447.06	Rs. 7252.58 Cr. @ 5521.46
Apr-11	Rs. 2679.76 Cr. @ 5860.95	Rs. 7411.63 Cr. @ 5830.68	Rs. -4731.87 Cr. @ 5845.81
May-11	Rs. 5469.46 Cr. @  5494.34	Rs. 8203.42 Cr @ 5489.62	RS. -2733.96 Cr. @ 5491.98
Jun-11	Rs. 8851.56 Cr. @ 5470.14	Rs. 3268.85 Cr. @ 5476.20	Rs. 5582.71 Cr. @ 5473.17
FIIs OVERALL LONG POSITION ON 6 MONTHS BASIS FROM JAN - 11 TO JUNE 2011			Rs. 3080.32 Cr. @ 5579.11

On month basis NIFTY Spot will face the big resistance @ 5804.9. NIFTY Spot will be positive if holds and maintains above 5500.4. NIFTY Spot current index @ 5627.20. Means NIFTY Spot is holding 5500.4.   

                                                                  

After analyzing the above its clearly states that how FIIs have traded in the market on month basis from Jan 2011 to June 2011. Whatever the short position have created by FIIs in Jan 2011 have short covered in Feb 2011 & Mar 2011. In Mar 2011 FIIs had net long position Rs. 4963.44 Cr. In April 2011 FIIs sold Rs. -4731.87 Cr., means whatever the FIIs had net long position in March 2011 sold in April 2011. In May 2011 FIIs created fresh short position Rs. -2733.96 Cr., but covered in June 2011 and created fresh long position. On the basis of 6 months from Jan 2011 to June 2011, FII’s have net long position Rs. 3080.32 Cr. @ 5579.11. So FIIs will maintain the market above 5579.11 on overall basis and 5469.24 on month basis.