Alert:- What FIIs are doing after Budget and RBI Rate cut event..........................05.03.2015

Union Budget 2015-16 presented on 28th February 2015 which was very important for the market and we also saw the huge volatility on that day. Lets have a look on FIIs Trading Activities in Feb 2015 which will clear FIIs activity in the market before budget:

There were 20 trading session in Feb 2015. 

FIIs sold in 12 Trading Sessions and Buy in 8 Trading Sessions.

FIIs Total Buy in Index Futures in 8 Trading Sessions = Rs. 6032.56 Cr.

FIIs Total Net Sell in Index Futures in 12 Trading Session= Rs. -8046.30

After analyzing the above data, it is clear that FIIs have sold Rs. -8046.30 Index Futures before the Union Budget and Selling Trading Sessions were more in comparison Buying Trading Sessions. Means FIIs were not positive on the budget that's why buying was not coming from them and finally FIIs sold Rs. -2013.74 Cr. in Index Futures on net basis (Rs. 6032.56 Cr (Total Buy Amount) - Rs. 8046.30 (Total Sell Amount).

Note:- FIIs are already sit on big profits (Rs. 9674.37 Cr. @ 7402.72 at Nifty Spot Level Basis) Which is on Mark to Market Basis on 2014 basis Refer Article:- "http://nifty-analysis.blogspot.in/2015/01/what-fiis-are-doing-in-nifty-future-in.html". 

Lets have a look on FIIs Trading Activity from 01st Jan to 04th March 2015.

After analyzing the above table, it is clear that FIIs have given the Book Profit Signal in their major Long Position in Index Futures, as already sold Rs. -2013.74 Cr. in Feb 2015. Union Budget and RBI Policy event have already happened and RBI has become cut the repo rate also. All the major events have been discounted and no other major event is there. It may be possible that FIIs may book more profit in their long positions further.

  

Short Bank Nifty Futures @ 19520-19545 - Call gave to paid members.....................16.02.2015

Today Short Call gave in Bank Nifty Future @ 19520 - 16545, Stop Loss @ 19575, Target @ 19385. Call gave to paid members via Watsapp at 10:15 am. After giving the call, Bank Nifty Future hit @ 19570 at 10:38 am. It became hit the target @ 19385 at 11:23 am and made the low @ 19325 at 11:25 am. Finally hit the new day's low @ 19211 at 15:17.

Members made the Profit  in the Call Rs. 3500/- (140 Points * 25) per lot.

Investment Amount  = Rs. 39000/- per lot
Return =  Rs. 3500/- (+8.97%)

What FIIs are doing in Nifty Future in 2015................................04.02.2015

As per the above table, it is clear that FIIs have taken fresh long position in Nifty Future Rs. 6643.87 Cr @ 8554.61 Nifty Spot Level in 2015 till 04th Feb 2015. As per the earlier post (http://nifty-analysis.blogspot.in/2015/01/what-fiis-are-doing-in-nifty-future-in.html), FIIs had booked profit in 33% part of their long position (in 2014) from 01st Jan to 07th Jan 2015 but again huge long position has created till 4th Feb 2015. 


Now,

In the year 2014 - Long Position Rs. 9674.37 Cr @ 7402.72 Nifty Spot Level (Still Carrying)
In the year 2015 till 04th Feb 2015 - Fresh Long Position Rs. 6643.87 Cr @ 8554.61 Nifty Spot Level.


Currently, Nifty Spot is trading @ 8723.70 closed on 04th Feb 2015, if it comes near 8550 - 8650 then it may be buying opportunity. Overall Nifty Spot is not looking below 7980. Please not that FIIs had bought Rs. 3896.76 Cr in Nifty Future on 15th Jan 2015 which is highest buy amount in single day in last 1 year and Nifty Spot was @ 8494.15 on that particular day.

What FIIs are doing in Nifty Future in 2015.................07.01.2015

After close observation of the above two tables, it is clear that FIIs had strong Long Position in Nifty Future Rs. 9674.37 Cr. @ 7402.72 Nifty Spot Level in 2014.

But Till 07th Jan 2015 FIIs have booked profit in their 33% long position which is Rs. -3214.98 Cr. @ 8309.45 Nifty Spot Level. Currently Nifty Spot is @ 8102.10 as closed on 07th Jan 2015. Means to say FIIs booked +906.73 Points in their 33% long position. As the major concern was Euro zone crisis. 

Let's have a look on FIIs in Indian Market from Euro zone:

SR. NO	COUNTRY NAME	FIIs IN INDIA
1	FRANCE	25
2	IRELAND	62
3	NETHERLANDS	30
4	LUXEMBOURG	121
5	TURKEY	1
6	ITALY	8
7	GERMANY	17
8	CYPRUS	1
9	DENMARK	22
10	BELGIUM	2
11	SWITZERLAND	25
12	SWEDEN	11
13	ESTONIA	1
14	SPAIN	3
15	REPUBLIC OF MALTA	1
16	AUSTRIA	8
17	NORWAY	11
	FIIs FROM EURO ZONE	349
	OTHERS COUNTRIES	1405
	TOTAL FIIs IN INDIA	1754
	% OF EURO ZONE FIIs	19.89%

Angela Merkel's government may be trying to dampen down any talk of a "Grexit" but the possibility that Greece could quit the eurozone still continues to grip the markets.

At the height of the Greek crisis in 2010-11, a Grexit was deemed unthinkably painful, not least because French and German banks held billions in Greek sovereign bonds.

But what would a Grexit following Greece's snap general election on January 25 mean for the remainder of the currency bloc now?

The six European banks ( from France and Germany) - BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Natixis, Société Générale, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank - have about 5 billion euros ($6 billion) of loans out to Greek clients. 

Credit Agricole SA (ACA) of France has the highest at 3.5 billion euros, mostly corporate loans

Means to say, if we see on overall basis then France, Germany and Italy are having major exposure in Greece and  there are 349 FIIs from 17 countries in Euro zone out of 1754 FIIs from 47 countries.

So, it is clear that there 20% FIIs are from Euro zone in India Market and FIIs are from France is 25, from Germany is 17 and from Italy is 8. Major exposure is of Luxembourg - 121 FIIs from this country. Whatever we have seen major selling in cash segment Rs. -1570.76 Cr. on 06th Jan 2015 and Rs. -1073.18 Cr. on 07th Jan 2015 & Selling in Index Futures Rs. -2817.44 Cr on 6th Jan 2015 and Rs. -216.92 Cr. on 07th Jan 2015, it can be from FIIs of France and Germany.

If concern from eurozone deeper then we can see more selling in market because Germany and France will be affected on major basis and there 25 FIIs from Germany and 17 FIIs are from France. But it will be buying opportunity becuase if you see from last two days DIIs are buying in cash segment - Rs. +1189.65 Cr on 06th Jan 2015 and Rs. +601.40 Cr. on 07th Jan 2015.

FIIs Overall Position in Nifty Future from Jan 2014 to 24th Dec 2014 @ Nifty Spot Level basis..............24.12.2014

Analysis:- Above tables clearly indicate the FIIs exposure in Nifty Future. There were overall Net Long Position in Nifty Future Rs. 427.80 Cr. @ 5900.49 (Nifty Spot Level). Further, FIIs not only booked profit in overall long position in nifty future but also created fresh short position in Nifty Future:

FIIs Overall Net Long Position in Nifty Future on Year Basis in 2013 :- Rs. 427.80 Cr. @ 5900.49 (Nifty Spot Level)

FIIs Overall Net Sell Position in Nifty Future in Jan 2014 :- Rs. -5235.65 Cr. @ 6237.79 (Nifty Spot Level)

FIIs created Fresh Short Position in Nifty Future in Jan 2014 = Rs. 427.80 Cr. (Overall Net Long Position in Nifty Future in 2013) -5235.65 Cr. (Overall Net Sell Position in Nifty Future in Jan 2014) = Rs. -4807.85 Cr. @ 6237.79 (Nifty Spot Level Basis).

But in coming months (Feb, March, April, and May 2014), FIIs not only covered their short positions but also created Fresh Long Position in Nifty Future.

Feb-14 :- Rs. +1762.60 Cr. @ 6096.81 (Nifty Spot Level

Mar-14 :- Rs. +6472.64 Cr. @ 6504.56 (Nifty Spot Level)

Apr-14 :- Rs. +152.76 Cr. @ 6750.23 (Nifty Spot Level)

May-14 :- Rs. +2329.53 Cr. @ 7067.62 (Nifty Spot Level)

Total Buy Position from Feb-14 to May-14 = 1762.60 + 6472.64 + 152.76 + 2329.53 = +10717.53 Cr. @ 6604.80 (Nifty Spot Level)

Total Fresh Long Position in Nifty Future till May-14 = +10717.53 Cr. (Total Buy Position from Feb-14 to May-14) - 4807.85 Cr. (Fresh Short Position in Nifty Future Till Jan 2014) = +5909.68 Cr. @ 6421.29 (Nifty Spot Level).

After that FIIs booked some profit in June-14 in their long position which was Rs. +5909.68 Cr. @ 6421.29 (Nifty Spot Level)  in May-14 :- Rs. -2421.16 Cr. @ 7544.34 (Nifty Spot Level).

Means FIIs booked profit +1123.05 Points in their long position. Now balance Long Position was Rs. +3488.52 Cr. @ 6421.29 (Nifty Spot Level) in June-14. 

Further, FIIs again created Fresh Long Position in Nifty Future in July & Aug-14 :-

July-14:- Rs. +322.83 Cr. @ 7676.75 (Nifty Spot Level)
Aug-14:- Rs. +1337.45 Cr. @ 7760.69 (Nifty Spot Level)

So, Total Long Position till Aug-14 :-

Balance Long Position till June-14 = +3488.58 Cr. @ 6421.29 (Nifty Spot Level)
July-14 = Rs. +322.83 Cr. @ 7676.75 (Nifty Spot Level)
Aug-14 = Rs. +1337.45 Cr. @ 7760.69 (Nifty Spot Level)

Total Long Position in Nifty Future Till Aug-14 = 3488.58 + 322.83 + 1337.45 = 5148.86 Cr. @ 7286.24 (Nifty Spot Level).

Again FIIs booked some profit (+758.21 Points) in their long position in Sep-14:- Rs. -3122.88 Cr. @ 8044.45 (Nifty Spot Level).

Now balance Long Position in Nifty Future till Sep-14 :- Rs. +2025.98 Cr. @ 7286.24 (Nifty Spot Level).

And again FIIs created major Fresh Long Position in Nifty Future in Oct & Nov-14 = 

Oct-14 :- Rs. +7127.04 Cr. @ 7918.25 (Nifty Spot Level)
Nov-14 :- Rs. +3936.22 Cr. @ 8415.97 (Nifty Spot Level)

Now, Total Long Position in Nifty Future till Nov-14 = 

Balance Long Position till Sep-14 = Rs. +2025.98 Cr. @ 7286.24 (Nifty Spot Level)
Oct-14 :- Rs. +7127.04 Cr. @ 7918.25 (Nifty Spot Level)
Nov-14 :- Rs. +3936.22 Cr. @ 8415.97 (Nifty Spot Level)

Total Long Position in Nifty Future till Nov-14 = Rs. +13089.24 Cr. @ 7873.33 (Nifty Spot Level Basis).

But further in Dec-14 (till 24th Dec 2014), FIIs booked (450.01 Points) again some profit in their long position Rs. -4694.01 Cr. @ 8323.34 (Nifty Spot Level).

Conclusion :- Now, Finally Balance Long Position of FIIs in Nifty Future till 24th Dec 2014 :- Rs. 8395.23 Cr. @ 7403.98  (Nifty Spot Level Basis).

Presently Nifty Spot is trading at 8174.10 (Closed on 24th Dec 2014). First Major Support  in Nifty Spot will be @ 7850 because FIIs had taken major fresh long position in Nifty Future Rs. 7127.04 Cr. @ 7918.25 (Nifty Spot Level Basis) in Oct-14 which was highest long position amount on month basis in 2014. If market will come down to these levels then it may be buying opportunity and overall market is not looking below 7400 (Nifty Spot Level).

Short Nifty Future July Expiry @ 7784 - 7800................23.07.2014

Alert:- Short Nifty Future July Expiry @ 7784 - 7800, Stop Loss @ 7860, Target @ 7575 - 7400.

 Alert :- FIIs have already pumped huge cash in Nifty Future. Now its time book profit by FIIs. In Index Future :- +38371 Cr till date 2014 In Spot :- +71109 Cr till date 2014 Note :- FIIs have already sold -23693 Cr till date 2014 in Stock Futures.

Opportunity to explore Singapore Exchange............01.04.2014

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Training by experts from Industry and like from Planning Commission, SEBI, NCDEX, NSLD etc

Highly well equipped Library of NIFM where you can access Journals, Articles, Research Reports from Ministry of Finance, World Bank, IMF etc.

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Consultant, National Stock Exchange of India Limited

VIEW OF INFOSYS :- HEADING TOWARDS RS. 3100............05.02.2014

50 Basis Points Rate Hike is expected by Companies in RBI Policy Today........18.12.2013

10 Laws of Stock Market Bubbles..............17.12.2013

10 Laws of Stock Market Bubbles:-

1. Debt is cheap.
2. Debt is plentiful.
3. There is the egregious use of debt.
4. A new marginal (and sizeable) buyer of an asset class appears.
5. After a sustained advance in an asset class’s price, the prior four factors lead to new-era thinking that cycles have been eradicated/eliminated and that a long boom in value lies ahead.
6. The distance of valuations from earnings is directly proportional to the degree of bubbliness.
7. The newer the valuation methodology in vogue the greater the degree of bubbliness.
8. Bad valuation methodologies drive out good valuation methodologies.
9. When everyone thinks central bankers, money managers, corporate managers, politicians or any other group are the smartest guys in the room, you are in a bubble.
10.Rapid growth of a new financial product that is not understood. (e.g., derivatives, what Warren Buffett termed “financial weapons of mass destruction”).