TODAY ECONOMIC DATA..........25 JULY 2012

ECONOMIC DATA FROM EURO ZONE ON 25 JULY 2012 :-

  

1. German Ifo Business Climate Index  DATA WILL COME AT 4:00 AM NEW YORK TIME

FORECAST @ 104.7

PREVIOUS @ 105.3

NOTE :- The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. The index is compiled by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

2. German Current Assessment DATA WILL COME AT 4:00 AM NEW YORK TIME

FORECAST @ 113.0

PREVIOUS @ 113.9

NOTE :- The German Current Assessment rates current business conditions in Germany, without considering future expectations. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

3. German Business Expectations DATA WILL COME AT 4:00 AM NEW YORK TIME

FORECAST @ 96.70

PREVIOUS @ 97.3

NOTE :- 

German Business Expectations rates the expectations of businesses in Germany for the following six months. It is is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

4. Italian Consumer Confidence DATA WILL COME AT 4:00 AM NEW YORK TIME

FORECAST @ 96.70

PREVIOUS @ 97.3

NOTE :- 

Italian Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

ECONOMIC DATA FROM UNITED STATES ON 25 JULY 2012 :-

       

1. New Home Sales DATA WILL COME AT 10:00 AM NEW YORK TIME

FORECAST @ 372K

PREVIOUS @ 369K

NOTE :- New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

2. Crude Oil Inventories DATA WILL COME AT 10:30 AM

FORECAST @ -0.650M

PREVIOUS @ -0.809M

NOTE :- The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation

INTERNATIONAL MARKET MORNING ALERT AT 8:55 AM.....29 JUNE 2012

INTERNATIONAL MARKET MORNING ALERT AT 8:55 AM INDIAN TIME :-  


AMERICAN MARKET :-  DOWJONS FUTURE @ 12645, +135 POINTS UP, +1.07% UP 
NASDAQ 100 FUTURE @ 2554.61, +28.88 POINTS UP, +1.13% UP 
S&P 500 INDEX FUTURE @ 1336.13, +16.25 POINTS UP, +1.22% UP  


EUROPIAN MARKET :-  FTSE 100 INDEX FUTURE @ 5538, +55.50 POINTS UP, +0.98% UP  


ASIAN MARKET :-  HANG SEN 40 @ 19406, +384.73 POINTS UP, +2.02% UP 
JAPAN INDEX NIKKEI 225 FUTURE  @ 9001, +203 POINTS UP, +2.26% UP 
SGX NIFTY @ 5206  


BOND MARKET :-  US NOTE @ $133.65, -0.18% DOWN 
US BOND @ $149.11, -0.39% DOWN  


COMMODITY MARKET :-  GOLD (SPOT) @ 1566.43, +$13.95 POINTS UP, +0.89% UP 
CRUDE OIL @ $79.33, +$0.98 POINTS UP, +1.24% UP 
SILVER(SPOT) @ $26.69, +$0.34 pOINTS UP, +1.27% UP 
COPPER @ $3.36, +$0.05 POINTS UP, +1.49% UP 

INTERNATIONAL MARKET MORNING UPDATE AT 9:04 IST.......25 JUNE 2012

AMERICAN MARKET INDEX FUTURES ARE TRADING NEGATIVE UP TO -0.44% DOWN AND ONE OF THE EURO ZONE INDEX FUTURE FTSE 100 INDEX IS ALSO TRADING UNDER PRESSURE UP TO -0.38% DOWN. EURO/USD IS ALSO LOOKING UNDER PRESSURE DOWN -0.09% DOWN WHILE US BOND AND US NOTE IS TRADING POSITIVE WHICH IS THE CLEAR INDICATION FOR DOWNSIDE IN INDEX FUTURES.

RBI CREDIT POLICY TODAY..........18 JUNE 2012

TODAY RBI CREDIT POLICY AT 11:00 AM AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT RBI CAN CUT THE RATE BY LITTLE FEW BASIS POINTS TO CONSIDER GROWTH, EXPECTING CRR CAN BE CUT BY 0.25 BPS AND CAN REMAIN UNCHANGED REPO RATE BUT REVERSE REPO CAN CUT BY 0.25 BPS. 

INTERNATIONAL MORNING ALERTS (ON GREECE ELECTION RESULTS):- AMRICAN MARKET :- DOWJONS FUTURE @ 12764, +66 POINTS UP, +0.51% UP NASDAQ 100 FUTUTRE @ 2575.98, +9.75 POINTS UP, +0.36% UP S&P 500 FUTURE @ 1342.88, +5 POINTS UP, +0.37% UP EUROZONE MARKET :- FTSE 100 INDEX FUTURE @ 5495, +39 POINTS UP, +0.71% UP ASIAN MARKET :- HANG SEN 40 @ 19528, +294.06 POINTS UP, +1.53% UP NIKKEI 225 @ 8720.27, +150.95 POINTS UP, +1.76% UP SGX NIFTY @ 5182, +MORE THAN 45 POINTS UP BOND MARKET :- US BOND @ $148.86, -$0.99 POINTS DOWN, -0.67% DOWN (POSITIVE SIGN FOR EQUITY SEGMENT) US NOTE @ $133.48, -$0.36 POINTS DOWN, -0.27% DOWN (POSITIVE SIGN FOR EQUITY SEGMENT)........18 JUNE 2012

"M" PATTERN IN BANK NIFTY FUTURE JUNE EXPIRY......08 JUNE 2012

IMPACT OF BULLISH FLAG IN CRUDE OIL ON NYMEX ON 10 MINUTES CHART......06 JUNE 2012

BULLISH FLAG IN CRUDE OIL ON NYMEX ON 10 MINUTES CHART......06 JUNE 2012

FIIs POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE FROM MAY TO 1ST JUNE 2012......03 JUNE 2012

AFTER ANALYZING THE ABOVE TABLE, IT IS CLEAR THAT FIIs HAVE TAKEN HUGE SHORT POSITION IN MAY 2012 SERIES AND ALSO SOLD IN STARTING OF JUNE 2012, TOTAL NET SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -6085.95 CR. @ 4989.05 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. WE SHOULD NOT FORGET THAT THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF NIFTY SPOT OF THIS SHORT POSITIONS WAS 5050 EARLIER AND 5002 LATER. MEANS FIIs ARE SELLING OR TAKING MORE SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE CONTINUOUSLY AND NOT LOOKING TO RECOVER TILL NOW. THE SHORT POSITION AMOUNT IS TOO HUGE AND SHOWS HOW MUCH SERIOUS WEAKNESS IS LOOKING IN THE MARKET FURTHER.  


THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF NIFTY SPOT FOR SHORT POSITIONS OF FIIs IS @ 4989.05 MEANS IT IS 100% CLEAR THAT NIFTY IS HARDLY LOOKING ABOVE 5000 OR 5000 - 5050 RANGE.


ALL THIS FIIs DATA ARE GIVING EARLIER ALERTS FOR COMING MORE WEAKNESS IN THE MARKET.


INTERNATIONAL MARKET :-


WE SAW POOR GDP Q4 NUMBERS OF INDIAN ECONOMY WHICH SHOWS HOW MUCH SERIOUSNESS IS THERE IN THE ECONOMY. GLOBAL MARKETS ARE ALSO SUPPORTING THIS SERIOUSNESS, ALSO SEEN POOR JOB DATA FROM AMERICA AND POOR PMI DATA FROM CHINA. AND ALL THESE POOR FUNDAMENTAL NUMBERS ARE TUMBLING ALL WORLD MARKETS. ANOTHER THING WHICH WE SHOULD NOT IGNORE THAT BIG UPSIDE MOVEMENT IN US BOND AND GOLD. WE SAW THAT US BOND WAS UP MORE THAN 3.5% LAST WEEK AND 2% BIG UP IN DAY BASIS AND GOLD ABOVE $1600, IN INDIAN TERMS MORE THAN +1000 POINTS MOVED UP AND NOW TRADING AROUND @ 29850. AND NOW READY TO TOUCH 30000 ALSO AND EXPECTING CAN TOUCH 32000 ALSO. THIS SURPRISE JUMP IN US BOND AND GOLD IS CLEARLY SHOWING THAT MARKETS ARE LOOKING VERY WEAK.


WE ALSO SHOULD NOT IGNORE CRUDE OIL. WE SAW A HUGE SHARP CORRECTION IN CRUDE OIL LAST WEEK . CRUDE OIL GOT DOUBLE LOWER CIRCUIT ON MCX ALSO 


MARKET IS TRADING UNDER ANXIETY PHASE UNDER MARKET CYCLE MEANS THIS DIPS IS TAKING LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

ALERT :- FIIs ARE TAKING HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE.......01 JUNE 2012

ALERT :- FIIs TOOK HUGE SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -1251.78 CR AND SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT RS. -665.76 CR ALSO. DIIs SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT RS. -266.38 CR YESTERDAY. 


HUGE SELLING FROM FIIs IN NIFTY FUTURES AND CASH SEGMENT INDICATES THAT THEY ARE HAVING COMPLETELY NEGATIVE OUTLOOK ON INDIAN MARKETS AND WE SAW HOW GDP NOS WAS TOO WEAK YESTERDAY AND GIVING DANGEROUS SIGNAL FOR INDIAN ECONOMY.