50 Basis Points Rate Hike is expected by Companies in RBI Policy Today........18.12.2013

10 Laws of Stock Market Bubbles..............17.12.2013

10 Laws of Stock Market Bubbles:-

1. Debt is cheap.
2. Debt is plentiful.
3. There is the egregious use of debt.
4. A new marginal (and sizeable) buyer of an asset class appears.
5. After a sustained advance in an asset class’s price, the prior four factors lead to new-era thinking that cycles have been eradicated/eliminated and that a long boom in value lies ahead.
6. The distance of valuations from earnings is directly proportional to the degree of bubbliness.
7. The newer the valuation methodology in vogue the greater the degree of bubbliness.
8. Bad valuation methodologies drive out good valuation methodologies.
9. When everyone thinks central bankers, money managers, corporate managers, politicians or any other group are the smartest guys in the room, you are in a bubble.
10.Rapid growth of a new financial product that is not understood. (e.g., derivatives, what Warren Buffett termed “financial weapons of mass destruction”).

Combined Value Of The World’s Stock Markets ,Now at $ 63.4 Trillion (All Time High ).....................17.12.2013

It’s well-known that the U.S. stock market breached all-time record levels repeatedly in recent months.
 But what about the rest of the world?

According to new data from the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE), the combined market cap of the world’s major stock markets hit an all-time high in November.

We first read about this on Professor Mark Perry’s Carpe Diem blog. Here’s Perry:

As of the end of November, the total value of equities in those 58 major stock markets reached $63.4 trillion and set several milestones. First, global equity value reached a new all-time record high in November, and second, exceeded for the first time the previous all-time record monthly high of $62.8 trillion for global equity valuation in October 2007, several months before the global economic slowdown and financial crisis started, and caused global equity values to plummet by more than 50% (and by almost $34 trillion), from $62.8 trillion at the end of 2007 to only $29.1 trillion by early 2009…

ALERT :China’s economic rebound “is over”..............17.12.2013

China’s economy has slowed down again in the final months of the year, according to analysts at London consultancy Capital Economics. And growth may be back to where it was before the Beijing government caused activity to rebound over the summer with a new round of GDP-boosting stimulus measures.

Official statistics will show that the economy expanded around 7.5 per cent, year on year, in the final three months of 2013, Capital Economics predicts. That is the same rate of growth recorded for the three months to June, and is below the 7.8 per cent expansion seen in the third quarter.

Capital Economics’ forecast is based on its “China Activity Proxy”, which is made up of data that tracks economic activity such as travel, property sales and the volume of goods being shipped across the country. Here is what the group sees is happening: Cargo moving through China’s seaports is “unusually slow”.

Growth in the number of passengers travelling by road, rail water and air is “close to a multi-year low”. Construction accelerated in November, but developers’ unsold inventory is rising so housebuilding should slow down.

On the plus side, demand from overseas “looks to have held up relatively well”.
Capital Economics also says its “China Activity Proxy” has since 2012 “signalled that growth has been 1-2 percentage points slower than the official GDP figures”.

Below is a chart of how the proxy has predicted changes in China’s GDP figures.

Positive Economic data from United States influenced the SGX Nifty also trading @ 6224, +45.50 Points up........17 Dec 2013

Positive Economic data came from United States yesterday. Check the full article regarding those economic data :- http://nifty-analysis.blogspot.in/2013/12/us-and-european-market-jumped-on-better.html. And those data influenced not only the U.S market as well as European Market and now SGX Nifty has also influenced from those data and trading @ 6224, +45.50 Points up in the morning of 17 Dec 2013.

U.S and European Market Jumped on better U.S Economic Data yesterday.........17.12.2013

U.S and European Market jumped on positive Important Economic Data of U.S that came from United States yesterday. 

1.  Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) @ 3%, Forecast @ 2.8%, Previous @ 1.9%

Note:- Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker's productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

2. Unit Labor Cost (QoQ) @ -1.4%, Forecast @ -1.3%, Previous @ -0.6%

Note :- Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

3. Capacity Utilization Rate @ 79.0%, Forecast @ 78.4%, Previous @ 78.2%

Note:- The Capacity Utilization Rate is the percentage of production capacity being utilized in the U.S.(available resources includes factories, mines and utilities). Capacity Utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy. It can also act as a leading indicator of consumer price inflation

4. Industrial Production (MoM) @ 1.1%, Forecast @ 0.5%, Previous @ 0.1%

Note:- Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

Time To Shot Bank Nifty Future Dec Expiry.......................16.12.2013

Effects of WPI (Whole Sale Price Index) data on Bank Nifty Future Dec Expiry................16.12.2013

WPI data came @ 7.52% at 12:08 Pm and after that Bank Nifty Future Dec Expiry became down up to 11386.05 till 12:09 Pm within a minute from 11456.85. Before coming the data there were 6 Hanging Man Pattern on the intraday chart which was showing selling technically. 

See the Intraday Chart of Bank Nifty Future Dec Expiry which shows the trend also :-

The official Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 2004-05 = 100) for the month of November, 2013 rose by 0.7 percent to 181.5 (provisional) from 180.3 (provisional) for the previous month.

 INFLATION

The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 7.52% (provisional) for the month of November, 2013 (over November, 2012) as compared to 7.00% (provisional) for the previous month and 7.24% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 6.70% compared to a build up rate of 4.84% in the corresponding period of the previous year

ALERT :- Indian Bank Loan Growth came @ 14.20%, -8.30% from the previous on 13 Dec 2013........16 Dec 2013

ALERT :- Indian Bank Loan Growth came @ 14.20% on 13 Dec 2013

Note : - Bank Loan Growth measures the change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses. Borrowing and spending are closely correlated with consumer confidence.

Some Previous Indian Bank Loan Growth data :-

Release Date Actual Previous
Dec 13, 2013 14.200% 15.500%  
Nov 29, 2013 15.500% 16.400%  
Nov 15, 2013 16.400% 16.600%  
Nov 01, 2013 16.600% 17.700%  
Oct 18, 2013 17.700% 17.900%  
Oct 04, 2013 17.900% 18.200%  

After analyzing the above data, it is clear that when data came every time then it was below from previous data consistently. Means to say Banks lending ability is decreasing in the market and one of the main reason for this is increasing Non Performing Assets (NPAs) of the banks. 

Read the full article on Biggest Loan Defaulters in India :- http://nifty-analysis.blogspot.in/2013/12/biggest-loan-defaulters-in-india14122013.html

Biggest Loan Defaulters in India worth Rs. 29748 Crore.......................15.12.2013

All India Bank Employees' Association (AIBEA) has announced a list of top 50 loan defaulters, mainly the corporate firms, whose total default amount to the banks is allegedly to be around Rs 40,528 crore (Rs 4056.28 billion).

The association demanded a remedy for the bad loans at the earliest to safeguard the public money in the banks.

The list, released by the association, is on the data on loan not paid from Public Sector Banks except State Bank of India, IDBI and foreign banks. The association also plans to come out with top 30 defaulters in each Bank.

The biggest defaulter according to the list is Kingfisher Airlines.

Moser Baer India Ltd. & Group Companies

Rank: 25

Loan not repaid: Rs 581 crore

Moser Baer India Limited is a leading global tech-manufacturing company. Established in 1983, the company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of Optical Storage media like CDs and DVDs.

Every fifth disc manufactured globally belongs to Moser Baer and it is the lowest cost optical media manufacturer in the world.

Century Communication Limited

Rank: 24

Loan not repaid: Rs 624 crore

Century Communication has one of the largest post-production facilities in India under Pixion. The studio has worked on scores of Indian films (Jail and London Dreams among recent ones), Hollywood films and ad films.

The company also owns TV channels under the brand name Mahuaa. According to Business Standard, it’s the Mahuaa bouquet of channels that have caused problems to the company.

Indian Technomac

Rank: 23

Loan not repaid: Rs 629 crore

Indian Technomac is a mining company that also manufactures silicon, chrome alloys, Manganese alloys , titanium alloys and nickel.

ICSA (India)

Rank: 22

Loan not repaid: Rs 646 crore

Hyderabad-based ICSA (India) Limited provides solutions and software for the Energy Sector, which includes power, oil, natural gas and water.

The Company is also engaged in the business of providing energy Audit solutions.

The focus area for ICSA has been the technology solutions to Power Sector to identify Transmission and Distribution (T&D) losses and monitor power consumption.

K.S. Oil Resources

Rank: 21

Loan not repaid: Rs 678 crore

Deccan Chronicle Holdings Limited

Rank: 20

Loan not repaid: Rs 700 crore

Deccan Chronicle Holdings Limited or DCHL publishes the English-language dailies Deccan Chronicle, Financial Chronicle and Asian Age and the Telugu daily Andhra Bhoomi.

Banks have been taking possession of the DCHL’s property and assets and disposing them off to recover loans.

Enforcement Directorate is also probing the company over money laundering allegations.

Pixion Media Pvt. Limited

Rank: 19

Loan not repaid: Rs 712 crore

Zylog Systems (India) Limited

Rank: 18

Loan not repaid: Rs 715 crore

Zylog Systems (India) Limited is an Information Technology company registered in Chennai.

Surya Pharma

Rank: 17

Loan not repaid: Rs 726 crore

Surya Phamaceutical started in 1992 and it is an integrated pharmaceuticals company. It focuses on contract research and manufacturing.

STCL Limited

Rank: 16

Loan not repaid: Rs 860 crore

STCL (formerly called as Spices Trading Corporation Limited) is a subsidiary of State Trading Corporation of India based in Bangalore. The government has recommended winding up of this loss making public sector company, as it cannot be revived.

National Agricultural Co-Operative

Rank: 15

Loan not repaid: Rs 862 crore

Nafed is the government’s procurement agency for non-cereal crops such as cotton, oilseeds and pulses.

According to a report in Business Standard, loans to National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (Nafed) by several state-run banks have turned bad,  and banks have classified these as non-performing assets (NPAs). The overall exposure of these banks to Nafed stands at about Rs 2,000 crore (Rs 20 billion).

Murli Industries & Exports Limited

Rank: 14

Loan not repaid: Rs 884 crore

Nagpur-based Murli industries is leading manufactures of all types of paper & paper boards, cement, edible oil, pulps, solvent and power.

Kemrock Industries & Exports

Rank: 13

Loan not repaid: Rs 929 crore

Gujarat-based Kemrock Industries & Exports manufactures and exports composite for major industrial sectors such as aerospace, defense, renewable energy, wind energy, and railways.

Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceutical

Rank: 12

Loan not repaid: Rs 938 crore

Established in 1992 as an export-oriented unit (EOU), Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals is a vertically integrated company spanning the entire pharmaceutical value chain from discovery to delivery.

Varun Industries Limited

Rank: 11

Loan not repaid: Rs 1,129 crore

Varun Industries is a global conglomerate of businesses which includes stainless steel raw materials, steel ware, energy, commodity trading and agricultural products.

Sterling Oil Resources

Rank: 10

Loan not repaid: Rs 1,197 crore

Based in Mumbai, Sterling Oil Resources Limited is a venture from the Sandesara Group, which is a $ 6.9 billion group.

The Sandesara group has many successful and diversified ventures. The Sterling Biotech, the flag-ship company, is  listed on NSE and BSE in India, Luxembourg in Europe and Singapore in Asia.

Other leading ventures of Sandesara Group are PMT Machine Tools Limited , Sterling SEZ Limited, Sterling Ports Limited, Sterling International Enterprises Limited.

Forever Precious Jewellery & Diamonds

Rank: 9

Loan not repaid: Rs 1,254 crore

Forever Precious Jewellery & Diamond, a part of Su-Raj Diamonds & Jewellery, supplies an extensive range of fine jewellery and accessories to jewellers and jewellery manufacturers.

Corporate Ispat Alloys

Rank: 8

Loan not repaid: Rs 1,360 crore

Corporate Ispat Alloys Ltd (CIAL) is a unit of Abhijeet group. According to the company’s website, Under CIAL the Group has obtained environment clearance for an integrated steel plant along with 280 MW power plant in Jharkhand.

Abhijeet group has interest in power, mining, steel, roads, and cements.

Surya Vinayak Industries

Rank: 7

Loan not repaid: Rs 1,446 crore

Surya Vinayak Industries is part of Floriana Group based out of New Delhi. According to the company’s website, Surya Vinayak Industries imports, exports and trade in agri products. It is also a leading manufacturer of essential oils and other speciality perfumery compounds.

S. Kumars Nationwide Limited

Rank: 6

Loan not repaid: Rs 1,692 crore

SKNL is one of India’s leading textile and apparel company with expertise in multi-fibre manufacturing. The company has extended its presence in multiple product categories from Fabrics to Apparels and Home Textiles.

Sterling Biotech Limited

Rank: 5

Loan not repaid: Rs 1,732 crore

Sterling Biotech is a pharmaceutical firm with focus on contract research and manufacturing. It is flag ship company of Sandesara Group, which also owns Sterling Oil Resources.

Zoom Developers Private Limited

Rank: 4

Loan not repaid: Rs 1,810 crore

Vijay Choudhary and B L Kejriwal are the brains behind Zoom Developers who charted exponentially growth for the company. But the global financial crisis of 2008 shattered all their dreams. The group tried to grow faster than they could handle.

Nearly 27 Indian banks, with a majority of public sector banks have lent close to Rs 2,700 crore to this company. This debt has been admitted in the corporate debt restructuring cell.

Electrotherm India Limited

Rank: 3

Loan not repaid: Rs 2,211 crore

Electrotherm (India) has been engineering metal melting industry since 1983 and holds a 2,500,000 kW market share in the metal melting industry globally.

Winsome Diamond & Jewellery

Rank: 2

Loan not repaid: Rs 2660 crore

The company manufactures and exports gold, silver and platinum jewellery studded with diamonds, colour stones and semi precious stones as well as plain jewellery.

This company is part of Su-Raj Diamonds & Jewellery and holds 49 per cent stake in Forever Precious Jewellery.

Kingfisher Airlines

Rank: 1

Loan not repaid: Rs 2,673 crore

Until December 2011, Kingfisher Airlines had the second largest share in India's domestic air travel market. The airline faced severe financial crisis at the beginning of 2012 and is dysfunctional as of now.

The 14 banks, led by State Bank of India, which lent Rs 6,500 crore (Rs 65 billion) to the airline, are now involved in litigation over the money, as Mallya has sued them in multiple courts.

Today, Mallya owes money to banks, employees, tax officials, caterers, aircraft leasing companies, fuel supplier Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and to taxi operators, too.

Top 25 Defaulters in India
Rank	Company Name						Loan Amount (In Crore)
1	Kingfisher Airlines						2673
2	Winsome Diamond & Jewellery						2660
3	Electrotherm India Limited						2211
4	Zoom Developers Private Limited						1810
5	Sterling Biotec Limited						1732
6	S. Kumars Nationwide Limited						1692
7	Surya Vinayak Industries						1446
8	Corporate Ispat Alloys						1360
9	Forever Precious Jewellery & Diamonds						1254
10	Sterling Oil Resources						1197
11	Varun Industries Limited						1129
12	Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceutical						938
13	Kemrock Industries & Exports						929
14	Murli Industries & Exports Limited						884
15	National Agriculture Co-Operative						862
16	STCI Limited						960
17	Surya Pharma						726
18	Zylog Systems (India) Limited						715
19	Pixion Media Pvt. Limited						712
20	Deccan Chronical Holdings Limited						700
21	K.S Oil Resources						678
22	ICSA (India)						646
23	Indian Technomac						629
24	Century Communication Limited						624
25	Moser Bare India Ltd. & Group Companies						581
Total                                                                                                Rs.							29748 Crore

ALREADY ALERTED YESTERDAY THAT SOME BIG PLAYERS CAN BOOK PROFIT IN THE MARKET NOWWWWWWW.............10.12.2013

ALREADY ALERTED THAT SOME BIG PLAYERS CAN BOOK PROFIT IN THE MARKET YESTERDAY.

CHECK HERE THE ALERT GAVE YESTERDAY :- http://nifty-analysis.blogspot.in/2013/12/historical-day-for-market-but-chart-is.html

NOW TODAY 10 DEC 2013 SOME HEAVY WEIGHTS IN NIFTY ARE DOWN :-

NTPC @ 136.40, -11.11% DOWN
BHEL @ 162, -5.62% DOWN
LARSEN @ 1096.70, -4.40% DOWN
ICICI BANK @ 1161.35, -3.39% DOWN
IDFC @ 110.80, -3.70% DOWN
INDUSLND BANK @ 449.70, -3.65% DOWN
JP ASSOCIATES @ 53.65, -3.42% DOWN
POWERGRID @ 97.40, -3.85% DOWN
DLF @ 160.25, -2.88% DOWN
AXIS BANK @ 1266.80, -2.82% DOWN

HISTORICAL DAY FOR MARKET BUT CHART IS SHOWING THAT SOME BIG PLAYERS ARE BOOKING PROFITS.................09.12.2013

TODAY IS THE HISTORICAL DAY FOR THE MARKET. NIFTY SPOT MADE NEW LIFE TIME HIGH @ 6415.25 ON ELECTION POLL RESULTS MANIPULATION DONE BY FIIs AND HEDGE FUNDS. 

BUT IF WE SEE TODAY'S CHART THEN IT IS CLEAR THAT SELLING PRESSURE IS THERE ON EVERY SMALL UPSIDE MEANS SOME BIG PLAYERS ARE BOOKING PROFITS.