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Sunday, July 31, 2011

S&P 500 Posts Biggest Drop Since July 2010

S&P 500 Posts Biggest Drop Since July 2010 :-


U.S. stocks fell five straight days, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest weekly loss in a year, as lawmakers’ failure to agree on raising the federal government’s debt limit brought the nation to the brink of default.  All 10 groups in the S&P 500 tumbled at least 2.1 percent. United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), the largest package-delivery company, dropped 6.7 percent after saying the third quarter will be “fairly slow.”3M Co. (MMM) lost 8.6 percent, the most in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after missing forecasts for profit margins and sales. Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) plunged 18 percent as the wireless-network operator trailed estimates.


 The S&P 500 declined 3.9 percent to 1,292.28, the biggest weekly drop since the period ended July 2, 2010. The Dow retreated 537.92 points, or 4.2 percent, to 12,143.24. 


The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against S&P 500 losses, soared 44 percent, the most since May 2010, to 25.25. 


The S&P 500 posted a third straight monthly loss, the longest streak since 2008, amid speculation Republicans in the U.S. House would fail to reach a compromise with the Senate, controlled by Democrats, and President Barack Obama to boost the nation’s ability to borrow by an Aug. 2 deadline. That concern helped overshadow a second-quarter earnings reporting season in which 78 percent of S&P 500 companies have exceeded analysts’ income projections.  


Stocks also fell this week after government reports showed orders for durable goods unexpectedly decreased and the U.S. economy grew less than forecast in the second quarter.  Sprint sank 18 percent to $4.23. The carrier lost 101,000 customers on monthly contracts after dropping 114,000 in the previous three-month period. That started a new losing streak following a fourth-quarter gain in the lucrative users that was the first increase in more than four years.  S&P placed the U.S. AAA rating on “CreditWatch” on July 14, saying there’s a 50 percent chance it would be cut within 90 days even if an agreement is reached by the Aug. 2 deadline. S&P said it needs to see a “credible solution to the rising U.S. government debt burden.”

Saturday, July 30, 2011

BUY AGAIN NIFTY 5300 PUT AUG EXPIRY @.........30 JULY 2011

BUY AGAIN NIFTY 5300 PUT AUG EXPIRY @ 39.60, STOP LOSS @ 19.85, TARGET @ 45.25 - 52.15 - 56.25 - 63.75. 


CALL GAVE ON 29 JULY 2011 AT 2:29 PM.

BUY NIFTY 5300 PUT AUG EXPIRY @.............30 JULY 2011


BUY NIFTY 5300 PUT AUG EXPIRY @ 38.10, STOP LOSS @ 19.85, TARGET @ 45.75 - 52.25 - 58.75 - 62.75. (POSITIONAL CALL). RISK :- RS. 1925, EXPECTED RETURN :- 1212.5 PER LOT...

CALL GAVE ON 29 JULY 2011 AT 10:50 AM.

Friday, July 29, 2011

NIFTY SPOT MONTHLY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE ON AUG 2011 EXPIRY BASIS

RESISTANCE :- 5663.61, 5845.23, 5950.06
SUPPORT :- 5377.16, 5272.33, 5090.71


BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 5558.78


MARKET OUT LOOK :- POSITIVE IF ABOVE & MAINTAINS 5558.78

NIFTY SPOT TRADING SUPPORT & RESISTANCE...........01 AUG 2011

RESISTANCE :- 5516.88, 5551.76, 5583.23
SUPPORT :- 5450.53, 5419.06, 5384.18


BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 5485.41


MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF ABOVE AND MAINTAINS 5485.41

NIFTY SPOT WEEKLY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FROM 01 AUG 2011 - 05 AUG 2011

RESISTANCE :- 5638.18, 5794.36, 5886.48
SUPPORT :- 5389.88, 5297.76, 5141.58


BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 5546.06


MARKET OUTLOOK:- POSITIVE IF ABOVE AND MAINTAINS 5546.06

Saturday, July 23, 2011

NIFTY SPOT WEEKLY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FROM 25 JULY 2011 - 29 JULY 2011

RESISTANCE :- 5675.33, 5716.71, 5788.03
SUPPORT :- 5562.63, 5491.31, 5449.93


BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 5604.01


MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF ABOVE AND MAINTAINS 5604.01

NIFTY SPOT TRADING SUPPORT & RESISTANCE...........25 JULY 2011

RESISTANCE :-5661.73, 5689.51, 5736.83
SUPPORT:- 5586.83, 5539.31, 5511.53


BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 5614.41


MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF ABOVE AND MAINTAINS 5614.41

Friday, July 15, 2011

NIFTY SPOT TRADING WEEKLY SUPPORT & RESIATANCE FROM 18 JULY 2011 TO 22 JULY 2011

RESISTANCE :- 5658.61, 5734.78, 5815.61
SUPPORT :- 5501.61, 5420.78, 5344.61

BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 5577.78


MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF ABOVE AND MAINTAINS 5577.78

NIFTY SPOT TRADING SUPPORT & RESIATANCE.......18 JULY 2011

RESISTANCE :- 5621.85, 5661.25, 5690.80
SUPPORT :- 5552.9, 5523.35, 5483.95


BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 5592.30


MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF ABOVE AND MAINTAINS 5592.30



NIFTY ANALYSIS REPORT FOR JULY EXPIRY 2011...........15 JULY2011

NIFTY ANALYSIS REPORT FOR JULY EXPIRY 2011


Current Trading Strategy in NIFTY Spot July 11 – Aug 11 Expiry Basis


After analyzing the above 5 days trend chart of NIFTY Spot. The intersection of black lines shows a triangle on slop downwards, it’s clearly indicates that NIFTY Spot is looking bearish on volatile basis. On 12 July 2011 NIFTY Spot was @ 5505 and on 14 July 2011 NIFTY Spot was @ 5650. On 15 July 2011 NIFTY Spot is @ 5574. So Its Clearly shows how volatile it is and ready to touch 5505. On down side NIFTY Spot has strong support @ 5474. If it breaks then will be panic the market.

 
After analyzing the above 6 months trend of NIFTY Spot from Feb 2011 to July 2011, it’s clearly states that NIFTY Spot has strong Resistance @ 5700. If it crosses and holds at this level. Then NIFTY Spot will be bullish but after seeing the chart, intersection of black lines shows there is pressure on upside and looking difficult to cross 5700 in short term. 


After analyzing the above chart of FIIs trading activity in Index Futures including NIFTY Future in July 11 series from 01 July 2011 to 14 July 2011, it’s clear that FIIs have taken short position in 6 days trading session out of 9 trading sessions. The below table shows the following:- 


DATE
NET LONG POSITION
NET SHORT POSITION
NIFTY SPOT LEVEL

(Rs. In Cr.)
(Rs. In Cr.)

1-Jul-11

-133.7
5627.2
4-Jul-11
731.14

5650
5-Jul-11

-158.1
5632.1
6-Jul-11
10.33

5625.45
7-Jul-11
601.05

5728.95
8-Jul-11

-562.13
5660.65
11-Jul-11

-678.48
5616
12-Jul-11

-645.04
5526.15
13-Jul-11
357.18

5585.45
14-Jul-11

-105.76
5599.8



TOTAL NET SHORT POSITION FROM 01 JULY 2011 TO 14 JULY 2011:- RS. – 2283.21 CR. @ 5610


TOTAL NET LONG POSITION FROM 01 JULY 2011 TO 141 JULY 2011:- RS. 1699.7 CR. @ 5646.47


SO NET SHORT POSITION IS: - RS. – 583.51 CR. @ 5628.


So If NIFTY Crosses 5700 and holds at this level then some positive sessions is to be expected. As per global cues Italy is in serious condition regarding debt crises, so the demand of Gold & Silver has increased also. Gold made a high of 23000 and Silver 58600 on MCX. All this things will pressure the NIFTY Spot for downwards.


CRUCIAL LEVELS IN NIFTY:- 


30 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE 5516.93

50 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE 5504.30

150 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE 5624.21

200 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE 5733.35



After analyzing the above the following trading strategy can be taken in NIFTY Spot:-


FOR JULY EXPIRY:-


Strategy 1:-


Buy NIFTY 5500 PUT JULY EXPIRY @ RS. 48 + BUY NIFTY 5600 CALL JULY EXPIRY @ RS. 64 + SHORT NIFTY 5200 PUT JULY EXPIRY @ RS. 7.35 + SHORT NIFTY 5900 CALL JULY EXPIRY @ RS. 4.85. NIFTY Spot @ 5582 on 15 July 2011


NOTE: - SHORT NIFTY 5200 PUT JULY EXPIRY & SHORT NIFTY 5900 CALL JULY EXPIRY HAVE GIVEN BECAUSE IT IS EXPECTED THAT NIFTY SPOT IS NOT LOOKING BELOW 5200 IN JULY SERIES EXPIRY AND NOT LOOKING ABOVE 5900 IN JULY SESSION EXPIRY.


RISK & RETURN:- 


RISK: - Limited to 50* 99.8 = Rs. -4990 per Lot


RETURN: - Limited to 50 * 200.2 = Rs. 10010 per Lot


INVESTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS STRATEGY: - 65600


RISK IN %:- 7.60 (MAXIMUM)


RETURN IN %:- 15.25 (MAXIMUM)


CALCULATION OF PROFIT & LOSS OF THE ABOVE STRATEGY


NIFTY 5500 PUT @48

NIFTY 5600 CALL @ 64
NIFTY 5200 PUT @ 7.35
NIFTY 5900 CALL @ 4.85
NIFTY SPOT CLOSING AT JULY 11 EXPIRY
PROFIT & LOSS PER LOT
452
-64
-192.65
4.85
5000
200.2
352
-64
-92.65
4.85
5100
200.20
252
-64
7.35
4.85
5200
200.2
202
-64
7.35
4.85
5250
150.2
152
-64
7.35
4.85
5300
100.20
102
-64
7.35
4.85
5350
50.2
52
-64
7.35
4.85
5400
0.2
2
-64
7.35
4.85
5450
-49.8
-48
-64
7.35
4.85
5500
-99.8
-48
-64
7.35
4.85
5550
-99.8
-48
-64
7.35
4.85
5600
-99.8
-48
-14
7.35
4.85
5650
-49.8
-48
36
7.35
4.85
5700
0.2
-48
86
7.35
4.85
5750
50.2
-48
136
7.35
4.85
5800
100.2
-48
186
7.35
4.85
5850
150.2
-48
236
7.35
4.85
5900
200.2
-48
336
7.35
-95.15
6000
200.2
-48
436
7.35
-195.15
6100
200.2



After analyzing the above profit & loss calculation. It is clear that if NIFTY Spot closes between 5450 – 5650 then strategy will generate loss & the Maximum loss is Rs. -99.8. Profit will occurs when NIFTY Spot closes below 5400 or above 5700. So it is clear that this strategy should not be adopted when the market is under sideways. This strategy should be adopted when market is looking high volatile.


Some Change in the above strategy:-

Strategy 2:-


BUY NIFTY 5500 PUT JULY EXPIRY @ RS. 48 + BUY NIFTY 5600 CALL JULY EXPIRY @ RS. 64. NIFTY SPOT @ 5582 ON 15 JULY 2011.


CALCULATION OF PROFIT & LOSS OF THE ABOVE STRATEGY


NIFTY 5500 PUT @48
NIFTY 5600 CALL @ 64
NIFTY SPOT CLOSING AT JULY 11 EXPIRY
PROFIT & LOSS PER LOT
452
-64
5000
388
352
-64
5100
288
252
-64
5200
188
202
-64
5250
138
152
-64
5300
88
102
-64
5350
38
52
-64
5400
-12
2
-64
5450
-62
-48
-64
5500
-112
-48
-64
5550
-112
-48
-64
5600
-112
-48
-14
5650
-62
-48
36
5700
-12
-48
86
5750
38
-48
136
5800
88
-48
186
5850
138
-48
236
5900
188
-48
336
6000
288
-48
436
6100
388



After analyzing the above table, it is clear that if NIFTY Spot closes at expiry between 5400 – 5700, then loss will occur. If NIFTY Spot closes at expiry below 5400 or above 5700 then profit will occur.


Risk & Return in the above Strategy:-


Risk: - Limited to 50 * 112 = Rs. -5600 per lot


Return: - Unlimited

INVESTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS STRATEGY: - 5600


RISK IN %:- 100


RETURN IN %:- UNLIMITED


Some Change in the above strategy:-

Strategy 3:-


BUY NIFTY 5500 PUT JULY EXPIRY @ RS. 48, STOP LOSS @ 24 + BUY NIFTY 5600 CALL JULY EXPIRY @ RS. 64, STOP LOSS @ Rs. 32. NIFTY Spot @ 5582 on 15 July 2011


NIFTY 5500 PUT @48, Stop Loss @ 24
NIFTY 5600 CALL @ 64, Stop Loss @ 32
NIFTY SPOT CLOSING AT JULY 11 EXPIRY
PROFIT & LOSS PER LOT
476
-32
5000
444
376
-32
5100
344
276
-32
5200
244
226
-32
5250
194
176
-32
5300
144
126
-32
5350
94
76
-32
5400
44
26
-32
5450
-6
-24
-32
5500
-56
-24
-32
5550
-56
-24
-32
5600
-56
-24
18
5650
-6
-24
36
5700
44
-24
86
5750
94
-24
136
5800
144
-24
186
5850
194
-24
236
5900
244
-24
336
6000
344
-24
436
6100
444



After analyzing the above table, it is clear that maintaining the stop loss reduces the risk in comparison to not to maintain the stop loss.


Risk Return of the above strategy:- 


Risk: - Limited to 50 * -56 = Rs. -2800


Return: - Unlimited


INVESTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS STRATEGY: - 5600


RISK IN %:- 50


RETURN IN %:- UNLIMITED


Analysis:- 


After analyzing all the above strategies it is clear that it is better to adopt the 3rd strategy for NIFTY Spot in July 2011 Expiry, because in this strategy Loss is limited to Rs. -2800 and Profit is Unlimited. In 2nd Strategy there is also Loss is limited and profit is unlimited but 3rd Strategy Stop loss has taken that reduces the risk amount. Loss of probability is same in both the strategy but because of stop loss, 3rd Strategy reduces the amount of risk.