Analysis:- Above tables clearly indicate the FIIs exposure in Nifty Future. There were overall Net Long Position in Nifty Future Rs. 427.80 Cr. @ 5900.49 (Nifty Spot Level). Further, FIIs not only booked profit in overall long position in nifty future but also created fresh short position in Nifty Future:
FIIs Overall Net Long Position in Nifty Future on Year Basis in 2013 :- Rs. 427.80 Cr. @ 5900.49 (Nifty Spot Level)
FIIs Overall Net Sell Position in Nifty Future in Jan 2014 :- Rs. -5235.65 Cr. @ 6237.79 (Nifty Spot Level)
FIIs created Fresh Short Position in Nifty Future in Jan 2014 = Rs. 427.80 Cr. (Overall Net Long Position in Nifty Future in 2013) -5235.65 Cr. (Overall Net Sell Position in Nifty Future in Jan 2014) = Rs. -4807.85 Cr. @ 6237.79 (Nifty Spot Level Basis).
But in coming months (Feb, March, April, and May 2014), FIIs not only covered their short positions but also created Fresh Long Position in Nifty Future.
Feb-14 :- Rs. +1762.60 Cr. @ 6096.81 (Nifty Spot Level
Mar-14 :- Rs. +6472.64 Cr. @ 6504.56 (Nifty Spot Level)
Apr-14 :- Rs. +152.76 Cr. @ 6750.23 (Nifty Spot Level)
May-14 :- Rs. +2329.53 Cr. @ 7067.62 (Nifty Spot Level)
Total Buy Position from Feb-14 to May-14 = 1762.60 + 6472.64 + 152.76 + 2329.53 = +10717.53 Cr. @ 6604.80 (Nifty Spot Level)
Total Fresh Long Position in Nifty Future till May-14 = +10717.53 Cr. (Total Buy Position from Feb-14 to May-14) - 4807.85 Cr. (Fresh Short Position in Nifty Future Till Jan 2014) = +5909.68 Cr. @ 6421.29 (Nifty Spot Level).
After that FIIs booked some profit in June-14 in their long position which was Rs. +5909.68 Cr. @ 6421.29 (Nifty Spot Level) in May-14 :- Rs. -2421.16 Cr. @ 7544.34 (Nifty Spot Level).
Means FIIs booked profit +1123.05 Points in their long position. Now balance Long Position was Rs. +3488.52 Cr. @ 6421.29 (Nifty Spot Level) in June-14.
Further, FIIs again created Fresh Long Position in Nifty Future in July & Aug-14 :-
July-14:- Rs. +322.83 Cr. @ 7676.75 (Nifty Spot Level)
Aug-14:- Rs. +1337.45 Cr. @ 7760.69 (Nifty Spot Level)
So, Total Long Position till Aug-14 :-
Balance Long Position till June-14 = +3488.58 Cr. @ 6421.29 (Nifty Spot Level)
July-14 = Rs. +322.83 Cr. @ 7676.75 (Nifty Spot Level)
Aug-14 = Rs. +1337.45 Cr. @ 7760.69 (Nifty Spot Level)
Total Long Position in Nifty Future Till Aug-14 = 3488.58 + 322.83 + 1337.45 = 5148.86 Cr. @ 7286.24 (Nifty Spot Level).
Again FIIs booked some profit (+758.21 Points) in their long position in Sep-14:- Rs. -3122.88 Cr. @ 8044.45 (Nifty Spot Level).
Now balance Long Position in Nifty Future till Sep-14 :- Rs. +2025.98 Cr. @ 7286.24 (Nifty Spot Level).
And again FIIs created major Fresh Long Position in Nifty Future in Oct & Nov-14 =
Oct-14 :- Rs. +7127.04 Cr. @ 7918.25 (Nifty Spot Level)
Nov-14 :- Rs. +3936.22 Cr. @ 8415.97 (Nifty Spot Level)
Now, Total Long Position in Nifty Future till Nov-14 =
Balance Long Position till Sep-14 = Rs. +2025.98 Cr. @ 7286.24 (Nifty Spot Level)
Oct-14 :- Rs. +7127.04 Cr. @ 7918.25 (Nifty Spot Level)
Nov-14 :- Rs. +3936.22 Cr. @ 8415.97 (Nifty Spot Level)
Total Long Position in Nifty Future till Nov-14 = Rs. +13089.24 Cr. @ 7873.33 (Nifty Spot Level Basis).
But further in Dec-14 (till 24th Dec 2014), FIIs booked (450.01 Points) again some profit in their long position Rs. -4694.01 Cr. @ 8323.34 (Nifty Spot Level).
Conclusion :- Now, Finally Balance Long Position of FIIs in Nifty Future till 24th Dec 2014 :- Rs. 8395.23 Cr. @ 7403.98 (Nifty Spot Level Basis).
Presently Nifty Spot is trading at 8174.10 (Closed on 24th Dec 2014). First Major Support in Nifty Spot will be @ 7850 because FIIs had taken major fresh long position in Nifty Future Rs. 7127.04 Cr. @ 7918.25 (Nifty Spot Level Basis) in Oct-14 which was highest long position amount on month basis in 2014. If market will come down to these levels then it may be buying opportunity and overall market is not looking below 7400 (Nifty Spot Level).
