Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
10 Laws of Stock Market Bubbles..............17.12.2013
10 Laws of Stock Market Bubbles:-
1. Debt is cheap.
2. Debt is plentiful.
3. There is the egregious use of debt.
4. A new marginal (and sizeable) buyer of an asset class appears.
5. After a sustained advance in an asset class’s price, the prior four factors lead to new-era thinking that cycles have been eradicated/eliminated and that a long boom in value lies ahead.
6. The distance of valuations from earnings is directly proportional to the degree of bubbliness.
7. The newer the valuation methodology in vogue the greater the degree of bubbliness.
8. Bad valuation methodologies drive out good valuation methodologies.
9. When everyone thinks central bankers, money managers, corporate managers, politicians or any other group are the smartest guys in the room, you are in a bubble.
10.Rapid growth of a new financial product that is not understood. (e.g., derivatives, what Warren Buffett termed “financial weapons of mass destruction”).
1. Debt is cheap.
2. Debt is plentiful.
3. There is the egregious use of debt.
4. A new marginal (and sizeable) buyer of an asset class appears.
5. After a sustained advance in an asset class’s price, the prior four factors lead to new-era thinking that cycles have been eradicated/eliminated and that a long boom in value lies ahead.
6. The distance of valuations from earnings is directly proportional to the degree of bubbliness.
7. The newer the valuation methodology in vogue the greater the degree of bubbliness.
8. Bad valuation methodologies drive out good valuation methodologies.
9. When everyone thinks central bankers, money managers, corporate managers, politicians or any other group are the smartest guys in the room, you are in a bubble.
10.Rapid growth of a new financial product that is not understood. (e.g., derivatives, what Warren Buffett termed “financial weapons of mass destruction”).
Combined Value Of The World’s Stock Markets ,Now at $ 63.4 Trillion (All Time High ).....................17.12.2013
It’s well-known that the U.S. stock market breached all-time record levels repeatedly in recent months.
But what about the rest of the world?
According to new data from the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE), the combined market cap of the world’s major stock markets hit an all-time high in November.
We first read about this on Professor Mark Perry’s Carpe Diem blog. Here’s Perry:
As of the end of November, the total value of equities in those 58 major stock markets reached $63.4 trillion and set several milestones. First, global equity value reached a new all-time record high in November, and second, exceeded for the first time the previous all-time record monthly high of $62.8 trillion for global equity valuation in October 2007, several months before the global economic slowdown and financial crisis started, and caused global equity values to plummet by more than 50% (and by almost $34 trillion), from $62.8 trillion at the end of 2007 to only $29.1 trillion by early 2009…
But what about the rest of the world?
According to new data from the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE), the combined market cap of the world’s major stock markets hit an all-time high in November.
We first read about this on Professor Mark Perry’s Carpe Diem blog. Here’s Perry:
As of the end of November, the total value of equities in those 58 major stock markets reached $63.4 trillion and set several milestones. First, global equity value reached a new all-time record high in November, and second, exceeded for the first time the previous all-time record monthly high of $62.8 trillion for global equity valuation in October 2007, several months before the global economic slowdown and financial crisis started, and caused global equity values to plummet by more than 50% (and by almost $34 trillion), from $62.8 trillion at the end of 2007 to only $29.1 trillion by early 2009…
ALERT :China’s economic rebound “is over”..............17.12.2013
Official statistics will show that the economy expanded around 7.5 per cent, year on year, in the final three months of 2013, Capital Economics predicts. That is the same rate of growth recorded for the three months to June, and is below the 7.8 per cent expansion seen in the third quarter.
Capital Economics’ forecast is based on its “China Activity Proxy”, which is made up of data that tracks economic activity such as travel, property sales and the volume of goods being shipped across the country. Here is what the group sees is happening: Cargo moving through China’s seaports is “unusually slow”.
Growth in the number of passengers travelling by road, rail water and air is “close to a multi-year low”. Construction accelerated in November, but developers’ unsold inventory is rising so housebuilding should slow down.
On the plus side, demand from overseas “looks to have held up relatively well”.
Capital Economics also says its “China Activity Proxy” has since 2012 “signalled that growth has been 1-2 percentage points slower than the official GDP figures”.
Below is a chart of how the proxy has predicted changes in China’s GDP figures.
Positive Economic data from United States influenced the SGX Nifty also trading @ 6224, +45.50 Points up........17 Dec 2013
Positive Economic data came from United States yesterday. Check the full article regarding those economic data :- http://nifty-analysis.blogspot.in/2013/12/us-and-european-market-jumped-on-better.html. And those data influenced not only the U.S market as well as European Market and now SGX Nifty has also influenced from those data and trading @ 6224, +45.50 Points up in the morning of 17 Dec 2013.
U.S and European Market Jumped on better U.S Economic Data yesterday.........17.12.2013
U.S and European Market jumped on positive Important Economic Data of U.S that came from United States yesterday.
1. Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) @ 3%, Forecast @ 2.8%, Previous @ 1.9%
Note:- Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker's productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.
2. Unit Labor Cost (QoQ) @ -1.4%, Forecast @ -1.3%, Previous @ -0.6%
Note :- Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
3. Capacity Utilization Rate @ 79.0%, Forecast @ 78.4%, Previous @ 78.2%
Note:- The Capacity Utilization Rate is the percentage of production capacity being utilized in the U.S.(available resources includes factories, mines and utilities). Capacity Utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy. It can also act as a leading indicator of consumer price inflation
4. Industrial Production (MoM) @ 1.1%, Forecast @ 0.5%, Previous @ 0.1%
Note:- Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
1. Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) @ 3%, Forecast @ 2.8%, Previous @ 1.9%
Note:- Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker's productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.
2. Unit Labor Cost (QoQ) @ -1.4%, Forecast @ -1.3%, Previous @ -0.6%
Note :- Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
3. Capacity Utilization Rate @ 79.0%, Forecast @ 78.4%, Previous @ 78.2%
Note:- The Capacity Utilization Rate is the percentage of production capacity being utilized in the U.S.(available resources includes factories, mines and utilities). Capacity Utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy. It can also act as a leading indicator of consumer price inflation
4. Industrial Production (MoM) @ 1.1%, Forecast @ 0.5%, Previous @ 0.1%
Note:- Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
Monday, December 16, 2013
Effects of WPI (Whole Sale Price Index) data on Bank Nifty Future Dec Expiry................16.12.2013
WPI data came @ 7.52% at 12:08 Pm and after that Bank Nifty Future Dec Expiry became down up to 11386.05 till 12:09 Pm within a minute from 11456.85. Before coming the data there were 6 Hanging Man Pattern on the intraday chart which was showing selling technically.
See the Intraday Chart of Bank Nifty Future Dec Expiry which shows the trend also :-
See the Intraday Chart of Bank Nifty Future Dec Expiry which shows the trend also :-
The official Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 2004-05 = 100) for the month of November, 2013 rose by 0.7 percent to 181.5 (provisional) from 180.3 (provisional) for the previous month.
INFLATION
The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 7.52% (provisional) for the month of November, 2013 (over November, 2012) as compared to 7.00% (provisional) for the previous month and 7.24% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 6.70% compared to a build up rate of 4.84% in the corresponding period of the previous year
ALERT :- Indian Bank Loan Growth came @ 14.20%, -8.30% from the previous on 13 Dec 2013........16 Dec 2013
ALERT :- Indian Bank Loan Growth came @ 14.20% on 13 Dec 2013
Note : - Bank Loan Growth measures the change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses. Borrowing and spending are closely correlated with consumer confidence.
Some Previous Indian Bank Loan Growth data :-
Release Date Actual Previous
Dec 13, 2013 14.200% 15.500%
Nov 29, 2013 15.500% 16.400%
Nov 15, 2013 16.400% 16.600%
Nov 01, 2013 16.600% 17.700%
Oct 18, 2013 17.700% 17.900%
Oct 04, 2013 17.900% 18.200%
After analyzing the above data, it is clear that when data came every time then it was below from previous data consistently. Means to say Banks lending ability is decreasing in the market and one of the main reason for this is increasing Non Performing Assets (NPAs) of the banks.
Note : - Bank Loan Growth measures the change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses. Borrowing and spending are closely correlated with consumer confidence.
Some Previous Indian Bank Loan Growth data :-
Release Date Actual Previous
Dec 13, 2013 14.200% 15.500%
Nov 29, 2013 15.500% 16.400%
Nov 15, 2013 16.400% 16.600%
Nov 01, 2013 16.600% 17.700%
Oct 18, 2013 17.700% 17.900%
Oct 04, 2013 17.900% 18.200%
After analyzing the above data, it is clear that when data came every time then it was below from previous data consistently. Means to say Banks lending ability is decreasing in the market and one of the main reason for this is increasing Non Performing Assets (NPAs) of the banks.
Read the full article on Biggest Loan Defaulters in India :- http://nifty-analysis.blogspot.in/2013/12/biggest-loan-defaulters-in-india14122013.html
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Biggest Loan Defaulters in India worth Rs. 29748 Crore.......................15.12.2013
All India Bank Employees' Association (AIBEA) has announced a list of top 50 loan defaulters, mainly the corporate firms, whose total default amount to the banks is allegedly to be around Rs 40,528 crore (Rs 4056.28 billion).
The association demanded a remedy for the bad loans at the earliest to safeguard the public money in the banks.
The list, released by the association, is on the data on loan not paid from Public Sector Banks except State Bank of India, IDBI and foreign banks. The association also plans to come out with top 30 defaulters in each Bank.
The biggest defaulter according to the list is Kingfisher Airlines.
Moser Baer India Ltd. & Group Companies
Rank: 25
Loan not repaid: Rs 581 crore
Moser Baer India Limited is a leading global tech-manufacturing company. Established in 1983, the company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of Optical Storage media like CDs and DVDs.
Every fifth disc manufactured globally belongs to Moser Baer and it is the lowest cost optical media manufacturer in the world.
Century Communication Limited
Rank: 24
Loan not repaid: Rs 624 crore
Century Communication has one of the largest post-production facilities in India under Pixion. The studio has worked on scores of Indian films (Jail and London Dreams among recent ones), Hollywood films and ad films.
The company also owns TV channels under the brand name Mahuaa. According to Business Standard, it’s the Mahuaa bouquet of channels that have caused problems to the company.
Indian Technomac
Rank: 23
Loan not repaid: Rs 629 crore
Indian Technomac is a mining company that also manufactures silicon, chrome alloys, Manganese alloys , titanium alloys and nickel.
ICSA (India)
Rank: 22
Loan not repaid: Rs 646 crore
Hyderabad-based ICSA (India) Limited provides solutions and software for the Energy Sector, which includes power, oil, natural gas and water.
The Company is also engaged in the business of providing energy Audit solutions.
The focus area for ICSA has been the technology solutions to Power Sector to identify Transmission and Distribution (T&D) losses and monitor power consumption.
K.S. Oil Resources
Rank: 21
Loan not repaid: Rs 678 crore
Deccan Chronicle Holdings Limited
Rank: 20
Loan not repaid: Rs 700 crore
Deccan Chronicle Holdings Limited or DCHL publishes the English-language dailies Deccan Chronicle, Financial Chronicle and Asian Age and the Telugu daily Andhra Bhoomi.
Banks have been taking possession of the DCHL’s property and assets and disposing them off to recover loans.
Enforcement Directorate is also probing the company over money laundering allegations.
Pixion Media Pvt. Limited
Rank: 19
Loan not repaid: Rs 712 crore
Zylog Systems (India) Limited
Rank: 18
Loan not repaid: Rs 715 crore
Zylog Systems (India) Limited is an Information Technology company registered in Chennai.
Surya Pharma
Rank: 17
Loan not repaid: Rs 726 crore
Surya Phamaceutical started in 1992 and it is an integrated pharmaceuticals company. It focuses on contract research and manufacturing.
STCL Limited
Rank: 16
Loan not repaid: Rs 860 crore
STCL (formerly called as Spices Trading Corporation Limited) is a subsidiary of State Trading Corporation of India based in Bangalore. The government has recommended winding up of this loss making public sector company, as it cannot be revived.
National Agricultural Co-Operative
Rank: 15
Loan not repaid: Rs 862 crore
Nafed is the government’s procurement agency for non-cereal crops such as cotton, oilseeds and pulses.
According to a report in Business Standard, loans to National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (Nafed) by several state-run banks have turned bad, and banks have classified these as non-performing assets (NPAs). The overall exposure of these banks to Nafed stands at about Rs 2,000 crore (Rs 20 billion).
Murli Industries & Exports Limited
Rank: 14
Loan not repaid: Rs 884 crore
Nagpur-based Murli industries is leading manufactures of all types of paper & paper boards, cement, edible oil, pulps, solvent and power.
Kemrock Industries & Exports
Rank: 13
Loan not repaid: Rs 929 crore
Gujarat-based Kemrock Industries & Exports manufactures and exports composite for major industrial sectors such as aerospace, defense, renewable energy, wind energy, and railways.
Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceutical
Rank: 12
Loan not repaid: Rs 938 crore
Established in 1992 as an export-oriented unit (EOU), Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals is a vertically integrated company spanning the entire pharmaceutical value chain from discovery to delivery.
Varun Industries Limited
Rank: 11
Loan not repaid: Rs 1,129 crore
Varun Industries is a global conglomerate of businesses which includes stainless steel raw materials, steel ware, energy, commodity trading and agricultural products.
Sterling Oil Resources
Rank: 10
Loan not repaid: Rs 1,197 crore
Based in Mumbai, Sterling Oil Resources Limited is a venture from the Sandesara Group, which is a $ 6.9 billion group.
The Sandesara group has many successful and diversified ventures. The Sterling Biotech, the flag-ship company, is listed on NSE and BSE in India, Luxembourg in Europe and Singapore in Asia.
Other leading ventures of Sandesara Group are PMT Machine Tools Limited , Sterling SEZ Limited, Sterling Ports Limited, Sterling International Enterprises Limited.
Forever Precious Jewellery & Diamonds
Rank: 9
Loan not repaid: Rs 1,254 crore
Forever Precious Jewellery & Diamond, a part of Su-Raj Diamonds & Jewellery, supplies an extensive range of fine jewellery and accessories to jewellers and jewellery manufacturers.
Corporate Ispat Alloys
Rank: 8
Loan not repaid: Rs 1,360 crore
Corporate Ispat Alloys Ltd (CIAL) is a unit of Abhijeet group. According to the company’s website, Under CIAL the Group has obtained environment clearance for an integrated steel plant along with 280 MW power plant in Jharkhand.
Abhijeet group has interest in power, mining, steel, roads, and cements.
Surya Vinayak Industries
Rank: 7
Loan not repaid: Rs 1,446 crore
Surya Vinayak Industries is part of Floriana Group based out of New Delhi. According to the company’s website, Surya Vinayak Industries imports, exports and trade in agri products. It is also a leading manufacturer of essential oils and other speciality perfumery compounds.
S. Kumars Nationwide Limited
Rank: 6
Loan not repaid: Rs 1,692 crore
SKNL is one of India’s leading textile and apparel company with expertise in multi-fibre manufacturing. The company has extended its presence in multiple product categories from Fabrics to Apparels and Home Textiles.
Sterling Biotech Limited
Rank: 5
Loan not repaid: Rs 1,732 crore
Sterling Biotech is a pharmaceutical firm with focus on contract research and manufacturing. It is flag ship company of Sandesara Group, which also owns Sterling Oil Resources.
Zoom Developers Private Limited
Rank: 4
Loan not repaid: Rs 1,810 crore
Vijay Choudhary and B L Kejriwal are the brains behind Zoom Developers who charted exponentially growth for the company. But the global financial crisis of 2008 shattered all their dreams. The group tried to grow faster than they could handle.
Nearly 27 Indian banks, with a majority of public sector banks have lent close to Rs 2,700 crore to this company. This debt has been admitted in the corporate debt restructuring cell.
Electrotherm India Limited
Rank: 3
Loan not repaid: Rs 2,211 crore
Electrotherm (India) has been engineering metal melting industry since 1983 and holds a 2,500,000 kW market share in the metal melting industry globally.
Winsome Diamond & Jewellery
Rank: 2
Loan not repaid: Rs 2660 crore
The company manufactures and exports gold, silver and platinum jewellery studded with diamonds, colour stones and semi precious stones as well as plain jewellery.
This company is part of Su-Raj Diamonds & Jewellery and holds 49 per cent stake in Forever Precious Jewellery.
Kingfisher Airlines
Rank: 1
Loan not repaid: Rs 2,673 crore
Until December 2011, Kingfisher Airlines had the second largest share in India's domestic air travel market. The airline faced severe financial crisis at the beginning of 2012 and is dysfunctional as of now.
The 14 banks, led by State Bank of India, which lent Rs 6,500 crore (Rs 65 billion) to the airline, are now involved in litigation over the money, as Mallya has sued them in multiple courts.
Today, Mallya owes money to banks, employees, tax officials, caterers, aircraft leasing companies, fuel supplier Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and to taxi operators, too.
| Top 25 Defaulters in India | |||||||
| Rank | Company Name | Loan Amount (In Crore) | |||||
| 1 | Kingfisher Airlines | 2673 | |||||
| 2 | Winsome Diamond & Jewellery | 2660 | |||||
| 3 | Electrotherm India Limited | 2211 | |||||
| 4 | Zoom Developers Private Limited | 1810 | |||||
| 5 | Sterling Biotec Limited | 1732 | |||||
| 6 | S. Kumars Nationwide Limited | 1692 | |||||
| 7 | Surya Vinayak Industries | 1446 | |||||
| 8 | Corporate Ispat Alloys | 1360 | |||||
| 9 | Forever Precious Jewellery & Diamonds | 1254 | |||||
| 10 | Sterling Oil Resources | 1197 | |||||
| 11 | Varun Industries Limited | 1129 | |||||
| 12 | Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceutical | 938 | |||||
| 13 | Kemrock Industries & Exports | 929 | |||||
| 14 | Murli Industries & Exports Limited | 884 | |||||
| 15 | National Agriculture Co-Operative | 862 | |||||
| 16 | STCI Limited | 960 | |||||
| 17 | Surya Pharma | 726 | |||||
| 18 | Zylog Systems (India) Limited | 715 | |||||
| 19 | Pixion Media Pvt. Limited | 712 | |||||
| 20 | Deccan Chronical Holdings Limited | 700 | |||||
| 21 | K.S Oil Resources | 678 | |||||
| 22 | ICSA (India) | 646 | |||||
| 23 | Indian Technomac | 629 | |||||
| 24 | Century Communication Limited | 624 | |||||
| 25 | Moser Bare India Ltd. & Group Companies | 581 | |||||
| Total Rs. | 29748 Crore | ||||||
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
ALREADY ALERTED YESTERDAY THAT SOME BIG PLAYERS CAN BOOK PROFIT IN THE MARKET NOWWWWWWW.............10.12.2013
ALREADY ALERTED THAT SOME BIG PLAYERS CAN BOOK PROFIT IN THE MARKET YESTERDAY.
CHECK HERE THE ALERT GAVE YESTERDAY :- http://nifty-analysis.blogspot.in/2013/12/historical-day-for-market-but-chart-is.html
NOW TODAY 10 DEC 2013 SOME HEAVY WEIGHTS IN NIFTY ARE DOWN :-
NTPC @ 136.40, -11.11% DOWN
BHEL @ 162, -5.62% DOWN
LARSEN @ 1096.70, -4.40% DOWN
ICICI BANK @ 1161.35, -3.39% DOWN
IDFC @ 110.80, -3.70% DOWN
INDUSLND BANK @ 449.70, -3.65% DOWN
JP ASSOCIATES @ 53.65, -3.42% DOWN
POWERGRID @ 97.40, -3.85% DOWN
DLF @ 160.25, -2.88% DOWN
AXIS BANK @ 1266.80, -2.82% DOWN
CHECK HERE THE ALERT GAVE YESTERDAY :- http://nifty-analysis.blogspot.in/2013/12/historical-day-for-market-but-chart-is.html
NOW TODAY 10 DEC 2013 SOME HEAVY WEIGHTS IN NIFTY ARE DOWN :-
NTPC @ 136.40, -11.11% DOWN
BHEL @ 162, -5.62% DOWN
LARSEN @ 1096.70, -4.40% DOWN
ICICI BANK @ 1161.35, -3.39% DOWN
IDFC @ 110.80, -3.70% DOWN
INDUSLND BANK @ 449.70, -3.65% DOWN
JP ASSOCIATES @ 53.65, -3.42% DOWN
POWERGRID @ 97.40, -3.85% DOWN
DLF @ 160.25, -2.88% DOWN
AXIS BANK @ 1266.80, -2.82% DOWN
Monday, December 9, 2013
HISTORICAL DAY FOR MARKET BUT CHART IS SHOWING THAT SOME BIG PLAYERS ARE BOOKING PROFITS.................09.12.2013
TODAY IS THE HISTORICAL DAY FOR THE MARKET. NIFTY SPOT MADE NEW LIFE TIME HIGH @ 6415.25 ON ELECTION POLL RESULTS MANIPULATION DONE BY FIIs AND HEDGE FUNDS.
BUT IF WE SEE TODAY'S CHART THEN IT IS CLEAR THAT SELLING PRESSURE IS THERE ON EVERY SMALL UPSIDE MEANS SOME BIG PLAYERS ARE BOOKING PROFITS.
BUT IF WE SEE TODAY'S CHART THEN IT IS CLEAR THAT SELLING PRESSURE IS THERE ON EVERY SMALL UPSIDE MEANS SOME BIG PLAYERS ARE BOOKING PROFITS.
Friday, November 29, 2013
IMPORTANCE OF IMPLIED VOLATILITY IN OPTION PRICE.............29.11.2013
Some traders mistakenly believe that volatility is based on a directional trend in the stock price. Not so. By definition, volatility is simply the amount the stock price fluctuates, without regard for direction.
As an individual trader, you really only need to concern yourself with two forms of volatility: historical volatility and implied volatility. (Unless your temper gets particularly volatile when a trade goes against you, in which case you should probably worry about that, too.)
Historical volatility is defined in textbooks as “the annualized standard deviation of past stock price movements.”
Implied volatility is not based on historical pricing data on the stock. Instead, it’s what the marketplace is “implying” the volatility of the stock will be in the future, based on price changes in an option. Like historical volatility, this figure is expressed on an annualized basis. But implied volatility is typically of more interest to retail option traders than historical volatility because it's forward-looking.
IMPLIED VOLATILITY AND OPTION PRICES :-
"Implied volatility is a dynamic figure that changes based on activity in the options marketplace. Usually, when implied volatility increases, the price of options will increase as well, assuming all other things remain constant. So when implied volatility increases after a trade has been placed, it’s good for the option owner and bad for the option seller.
Conversely, if implied volatility decreases after your trade is placed, the price of options usually decreases. That’s good if you’re an option seller and bad if you’re an option owner."
How to signify the Implied Volatility :-
As an individual trader, you really only need to concern yourself with two forms of volatility: historical volatility and implied volatility. (Unless your temper gets particularly volatile when a trade goes against you, in which case you should probably worry about that, too.)
Historical volatility is defined in textbooks as “the annualized standard deviation of past stock price movements.”
Implied volatility is not based on historical pricing data on the stock. Instead, it’s what the marketplace is “implying” the volatility of the stock will be in the future, based on price changes in an option. Like historical volatility, this figure is expressed on an annualized basis. But implied volatility is typically of more interest to retail option traders than historical volatility because it's forward-looking.
IMPLIED VOLATILITY AND OPTION PRICES :-
"Implied volatility is a dynamic figure that changes based on activity in the options marketplace. Usually, when implied volatility increases, the price of options will increase as well, assuming all other things remain constant. So when implied volatility increases after a trade has been placed, it’s good for the option owner and bad for the option seller.
Conversely, if implied volatility decreases after your trade is placed, the price of options usually decreases. That’s good if you’re an option seller and bad if you’re an option owner."
How to signify the Implied Volatility :-
Implied Volatility in Case of Index Option
Implied Volatility in case of Stock Option
IMPORTANT INDIAN ECONOMIC DATA IS COMING TODAY 29.11.2013 IN THE EVENING............29.11.2013
IMPORTANT INDIAN ECONOMIC DATA WILL COME TODAY IN THE EVENING BETWEEN 6: PM TO 7:00 PM
1. INDIAN FOREX RESERVE :- International reserves are used to settle balance of payments deficits between countries. International reserves are made up of foreign currency assets, gold, holdings of SDRs and reserve position in the IMF.Usually includes foreign currencies themselves, other assets denominated in foreign currencies, and particular amount of special drawing rights (SDRs). A foreign exchange reserve is a useful precaution for countries exposed to financial crises. It can be used for the purpose of intervening in the exchange market to influence or peg the exchange rate.
PREVIOUS @ 283.57B
2. INDIAN BANK LOAN GROWTH :- Bank Loan Growth measures the change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses. Borrowing and spending are closely correlated with consumer confidence.
PREVIOUS @ 16.40%
3. INDIAN GDP QUARTERLY (YOY) :- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.
PREVIOUS @ 4.4%
FORECAST @ 4.6%
We are expecting GDP data will come more than forecast and this last GDP data in Congress Government.
1. INDIAN FOREX RESERVE :- International reserves are used to settle balance of payments deficits between countries. International reserves are made up of foreign currency assets, gold, holdings of SDRs and reserve position in the IMF.Usually includes foreign currencies themselves, other assets denominated in foreign currencies, and particular amount of special drawing rights (SDRs). A foreign exchange reserve is a useful precaution for countries exposed to financial crises. It can be used for the purpose of intervening in the exchange market to influence or peg the exchange rate.
PREVIOUS @ 283.57B
2. INDIAN BANK LOAN GROWTH :- Bank Loan Growth measures the change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses. Borrowing and spending are closely correlated with consumer confidence.
PREVIOUS @ 16.40%
3. INDIAN GDP QUARTERLY (YOY) :- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.
PREVIOUS @ 4.4%
FORECAST @ 4.6%
We are expecting GDP data will come more than forecast and this last GDP data in Congress Government.
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Monday, September 30, 2013
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Friday, September 20, 2013
Nifty Behavior on Today's RBI Credit Policy.............20 September 2013
Before RBI Credit Policy Chart was giving beautiful Bearish Harami Pattern at 10:55 Am and after policy Nifty became down beautifully. At 10:55 Am it was @ 6122.2, at 11:00 Am it was @ 6111.50 and after in just 3 minutes at 11:03 Am, when policy came, it became hit the low @ 6000.35 Am and at 11:40 Am it hi new day's low @ 5932.85. Means before Policy chart was giving signal for downside and after policy it reacted accordingly and Nifty became down 178.65 Points. means to say analysis is not just based on charts and all, it also includes fundamental factors and how the factors can be discounted earlier.
RBI Credit Policy Review :- RBI hikes repo rate, loans to cost more................20 September 2013
RBI hikes repo rate, loans to cost more
A hawkish RBI on Friday unexpectedly raised the policy rate by 0.25 per cent as it kept its focus on controlling inflation, which it felt would be above the expected levels in the current fiscal.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan in his maiden policy review, however, eased liquidity though a reduction in the marginal standing facility rate, at which banks borrow from the central bank, by 0.75 per cent to 9.5 per cent.
The repo rate or the short term lending rate has been increased by 25 basis points to 7.5 per cent from 7.25 per cent with immediate effect. The markets reacted negatively, with the Sensex tanking by about 500 points while the rupee depreciated 69 paise to 62.46 against the dollar.
"The need to anchor inflation and inflation expectations has to be set against the fragile state of the industrial sector and urban demand. Keeping all this in view, bringing down inflation to more tolerable levels warrants raising the repo rate by 25 basis points immediately," Rajan said in the mid-quarter policy review statement.
The RBI rolled-back some of the measures it had implemented to support the battered rupee currency.
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Banking Stocks Recommended on 16 Aug 2013 are Rocking Now.........................19 September 2013
Gave recommendation on Banking Stocks on 16 Aug 2013 via Facebook Platform on real time basis at 3:24 PM
See the Snap Shot :-
Check the link for authentication https://www.facebook.com/groups/powerofnifty/permalink/581024951940251/
Above few stocks recommended on 16 Aug 2013. On that date Stock Prices were :- IOB @ 39.10 after recommended it made the new low @ 37 on 19 Aug 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 47, gave return +20.20% in 1 month only. Oriental Bank was @ 129.55 and after recommended it made the new low @ 124.20 on 19 Aug 2013 and Now today 19 September 2013, it is @ 180, gave return +38.94% in one month only. Syndicate Bank @ 67 and after recommended it made the low @ 61 on 20 Aug 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 76, gave return +13.43% in one month only. Allahabad Bank @ 69.05 and after recommended it made the new low @ 64.75 on 28 Aug 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 83.60, gave return +21.07% in one month only. Kotak Mahendra Bank @ 632.25 and after recommended it made the new low @ 588 on 28 Aug 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 760.85, gave return +20.34% in one month only. Axis Bank @ 1048.95 after recommended it made the new low @ 763.40 on 04 September 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 1157, gave return +10.30% in one month only. Induslnd Bank @ 356.60 after recommended it made the new low @ 311.50 on 20 Aug 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 458.60, gave return + 28.60% in one month only. ICICI Bank @ 858.60 and after recommended it made the new low @ 756.90 on 28 Aug 2013 and Now today 19 September 2013, it is @ 1047, gave return +21.94% in one month only. HDFC Bank @ 587.90 after recommended it made the new low @ 528 on 28 Aug 2013 and Now today 19 September 2013, it is @ 684, gave return +16.34% in one month only.
See the Snap Shot :-
Check the link for authentication https://www.facebook.com/groups/powerofnifty/permalink/581024951940251/
Above few stocks recommended on 16 Aug 2013. On that date Stock Prices were :- IOB @ 39.10 after recommended it made the new low @ 37 on 19 Aug 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 47, gave return +20.20% in 1 month only. Oriental Bank was @ 129.55 and after recommended it made the new low @ 124.20 on 19 Aug 2013 and Now today 19 September 2013, it is @ 180, gave return +38.94% in one month only. Syndicate Bank @ 67 and after recommended it made the low @ 61 on 20 Aug 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 76, gave return +13.43% in one month only. Allahabad Bank @ 69.05 and after recommended it made the new low @ 64.75 on 28 Aug 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 83.60, gave return +21.07% in one month only. Kotak Mahendra Bank @ 632.25 and after recommended it made the new low @ 588 on 28 Aug 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 760.85, gave return +20.34% in one month only. Axis Bank @ 1048.95 after recommended it made the new low @ 763.40 on 04 September 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 1157, gave return +10.30% in one month only. Induslnd Bank @ 356.60 after recommended it made the new low @ 311.50 on 20 Aug 2013 and Now today on 19 September 2013, it is @ 458.60, gave return + 28.60% in one month only. ICICI Bank @ 858.60 and after recommended it made the new low @ 756.90 on 28 Aug 2013 and Now today 19 September 2013, it is @ 1047, gave return +21.94% in one month only. HDFC Bank @ 587.90 after recommended it made the new low @ 528 on 28 Aug 2013 and Now today 19 September 2013, it is @ 684, gave return +16.34% in one month only.
Friday, September 6, 2013
Invitations are invited for Learning for Wealth...........06.09.2013
Invitations are invited for those who want to learn Correlation Analysis, Regression Analysis, and Du-Pont Analysis Model, on excel. Correlation and Regression Analysis are used to make relationship between Dependent Variable and Independent Variable, while Du-Pont Model is used to break ROE (Return On Equity) into three parts namely; Profitability, Operating Efficiency, and Financial Leverage.
There is no charge for this learning. It is free. Live Sessions for 2 hrs will be conducted on Saturday, 14 September 2013 and Sunday, 15 September 2013 through Skype. Time for the session will be confirmed later. Only 5 persons are allowed in 1 session.
Requirements to join the session:-
1. Have the Skype in the session
2. Have a valid Skype account
3. Have a headphone for speaking and hearing
4. Team Viewer in the system
So before joining the session please be sure you should have these things in your system.
Those who are interested the mail me to :- saurabh_2004@rediffmail.com
Please send the following information before the dead line:-
Name:-
Place:-
Contact No:-
Email:-
Reason:- How the session can be helpful in your profession?
There is no charge for this learning. It is free. Live Sessions for 2 hrs will be conducted on Saturday, 14 September 2013 and Sunday, 15 September 2013 through Skype. Time for the session will be confirmed later. Only 5 persons are allowed in 1 session.
Requirements to join the session:-
1. Have the Skype in the session
2. Have a valid Skype account
3. Have a headphone for speaking and hearing
4. Team Viewer in the system
So before joining the session please be sure you should have these things in your system.
Those who are interested the mail me to :- saurabh_2004@rediffmail.com
Please send the following information before the dead line:-
Name:-
Place:-
Contact No:-
Email:-
Reason:- How the session can be helpful in your profession?
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