Thursday, May 31, 2012
ALERT :- TODAY IS MAY SERIES EXPIRY AND EXPIRY ALWAYS ON SPOT
ALERT :- TODAY IS MAY SERIES EXPIRY AND EXPIRY ALWAYS ON SPOT, BUT NIFTY FUTURE IS TRADING WITH -20.85 DISCOUNT AND THIS GAP WILL FILL BY TODAY. BANK NIFTY NIFTY FUTURE MAY EXPIRY IS ALSO TRADING WITH -66.55 POINTS DISCOUNT AND THIS GAP WILL FILL BY TODAY. THE THING IS THAT FIIs ARE STILL TAKING SHORT POSITIONS AND TOOK MORE SHORT POSITIONS YESTERDAY ALSO RS. -254.57 CR, MEANS FIIs ARE STILL NOT INTERESTED TO COVER THEIR SHORT POSITIONS AND BECAUSE OF HUGE POSITIONS BY FIIs THE DISCOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE AND BANK NIFTY FUTURE IS MAINTAIN.
THIS IS THE TECHNICAL FUNDAMENTAL RULE THAT FUTURE CONTRACT EXPIRY CONTRACTS ALWAYS EXPIRE ON SPOT BASIS. BUT THERE IS HUGE DISCOUNT GAP BETWEEN SPOT & FUTURE AND THIS GAP HAS TO BE FILL TODAY. SO IT IS SURE THAT THIS GAP WILL BE FILL EITHER BY SELLING IN CASH SEGMENT WHICH FORCE THE SPOT TO COME ON DOWNSIDE OR SHORT COVERING IN FUTURE. NOTE :- TODAY IS GDP DATA AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT GDP WILL COME @ 6%, IF GDP COME BELOW 6% THEN MARKET WILL NOT DIGEST THIS AND REACT ACCORDINGLY.
INTERNATIONAL IMPACT :-
WE SAW HOW WAS PANIC SITUATION IN AMERICAN MARKETS AND EUROPEAN MARKETS YESTERDAY ALL MARKETS WERE HUGE DOWN UP TO -2% AND THE REASON WAS INCREASING THE PROBABILITY TO EXIT THE GREECE FROM EURO ZONE.
WE ALSO SAW THE BIGGEST DAY'S UPSIDE IN US BOND YESTERDAY. IT WAS +2% WHICH SHOWS THAT REAL PANIC CONDITION IN THE MARKET.
NOTE :- KEEP EYE ON USD/INR BECAUSE FROM LAST TWO DAYS IT IS HOLDING ABOVE @ 56 AND TODAY IS THIRD DAY IF CLOSES ABOVE @ 56 THEN WE CAN SEE NEW HIGH IN COMING SESSION OR CAN TOUCH ABOVE @ 57 LEVELS ALSO.
THIS IS THE TECHNICAL FUNDAMENTAL RULE THAT FUTURE CONTRACT EXPIRY CONTRACTS ALWAYS EXPIRE ON SPOT BASIS. BUT THERE IS HUGE DISCOUNT GAP BETWEEN SPOT & FUTURE AND THIS GAP HAS TO BE FILL TODAY. SO IT IS SURE THAT THIS GAP WILL BE FILL EITHER BY SELLING IN CASH SEGMENT WHICH FORCE THE SPOT TO COME ON DOWNSIDE OR SHORT COVERING IN FUTURE. NOTE :- TODAY IS GDP DATA AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT GDP WILL COME @ 6%, IF GDP COME BELOW 6% THEN MARKET WILL NOT DIGEST THIS AND REACT ACCORDINGLY.
INTERNATIONAL IMPACT :-
WE SAW HOW WAS PANIC SITUATION IN AMERICAN MARKETS AND EUROPEAN MARKETS YESTERDAY ALL MARKETS WERE HUGE DOWN UP TO -2% AND THE REASON WAS INCREASING THE PROBABILITY TO EXIT THE GREECE FROM EURO ZONE.
WE ALSO SAW THE BIGGEST DAY'S UPSIDE IN US BOND YESTERDAY. IT WAS +2% WHICH SHOWS THAT REAL PANIC CONDITION IN THE MARKET.
NOTE :- KEEP EYE ON USD/INR BECAUSE FROM LAST TWO DAYS IT IS HOLDING ABOVE @ 56 AND TODAY IS THIRD DAY IF CLOSES ABOVE @ 56 THEN WE CAN SEE NEW HIGH IN COMING SESSION OR CAN TOUCH ABOVE @ 57 LEVELS ALSO.
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
INTERNATIONAL MORNING UPDATES......30 MAY 2012
Asian Stocks Drop As Euro Approaches Two-Year Low :-
Asian stocks dropped and the euro fell to a two-year low as Spanish borrowing costs rose and China damped speculation of large-scale economic stimulus. Oil and metals prices slid. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.2 percent as of 10:55 a.m. in Tokyo, led by shares of resources and energy companies. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.5 percent. The euro weakened 0.3 percent to $1.2465 and the Australian dollar retreated 0.6 percent. Crude fell 0.4 percent to $90.41 a barrel in New York and copper dropped for a second day in London.Asian Stocks Drop As Euro Approaches Two-Year Low
China has no plan to introduce stimulus measures of the scale seen during the global financial crisis, the official Xinhua News Agency said yesterday. The world’s second-biggest economy is forecast to expand 8.2 percent this year, the slowest since 1999.
Spain’s 10-year bond yield rose to the highest level since November yesterday as the central bank said the nation is sinking deeper into recession, fueling concern Europe’s debt crisis will worsen. “Chinese authorities do see downside risks to growth this year,” said Dwyfor Evans, a Hong-Kong based strategist at State Street Global Markets, part of State Street Corp., which has $1.9 trillion under management. “They will continue addressing the slowdown but it’s hard to assess if it will be enough.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is headed for a 10 percent decline this month, which would be the biggest loss since October 2008, amid signs of a deepening slowdown in China and as European leaders pressure Greece to meet bailout terms and stay in the euro. Greece will hold an election next month that may settle the matter.
Spanish Banks The euro has lost 5.9 percent this month, headed for its largest monthly drop since September, and touched $1.2458 today, the weakest level since July 1, 2010. Spain backtracked yesterday on a plan to use government debt instead of cash to bail out Bankia, as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy struggles to shore up the nation’s lenders without overburdening public finances. “It’s all about what happens with Spain and their banks, and what could be the scenario in terms of how much money they ask for,” said Mary Nicola, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. “But there’s still that Greek shadow.” The Hang Seng Index dropped 2 percent today in Hong Kong, leading declines among major Asia equity benchmarks. CNOOC Ltd., China’s biggest offshore oil producer, slid 2.7 percent, dropping to its lowest level this year. The price of crude has tumbled 14 percent this month in New York, the biggest decline since May 2010. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries slid three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.72 percent. The U.S. Labor Department is scheduled to release its monthly employment report later this week. U.S. payrolls probably climbed by 150,000 workers this month after a 115,000 gain in April.
IMPACT OF EURO SLID TO A TWO YEAR LOW :- (AT 8:35 AM INDIAN STANDARD TIME)
WE ARE SEEING CLEARLY IN THE ABOVE INTERNATIONAL MARKET WATCH THAT HOW MUCH EURO IS MAKING PRESSURE IN ALL THE INDEX FUTURES AS WELL IN COMMODITIES.
AMERICAN MARKET :-
DOWJONS FUTURE @ 12525, -52 POINTS DOWN, -0.42% DOWN
NASDAQ 100 FUTURE @ 2545.61, -13.50 POINTS DOWN, -0.53% DOWN
S&P 500 INDEX FUTURE @ 1325.13, -7.50 POINTS DOWN, -0.57% DOWN
EUROPEAN MARKET :-
FTSE 100 INDEX FUTURE @ 5349, -27 POINTS DOWN -0.50% DOWN
ASIAN MARKET :-
HONGKONG INDEX HANG SEN 40 @ 18641 @ -414.46 POINTS DOWN, -2.18% DOWN
NIKKEI 225 @ 8571.90, -85.18 POINTS DOWN, -0.98% DOWN
TAIWAN @ 7237.07, -105.22 POINTS DOWN, -1.43% DOWN
COMMODITY MARKET :-
GOLD (SPOT) @ $1546.92, -$7.80 POINTS DOWN, -0.50% DOWN
SILVER (SPOT) @ $27.70, -$0.15 POINTS DOWN, -0.54% DOWN
CRUDE OIL @ $90.29, -$0.58 POINTS DOWN, -0.64% DOWN
COPPER @ $3.41, -$0.03 POINTS DOWN, -0.88% DOWN
US BOND MARKET :-
US NOTE @ $133.88, +$0.19 POINTS UP, +0.14% UP
US BOND @ $147.94, +0.38 POINTS UP, +0.26% UP
AFTER SEEING ALL THE ABOVE SITUATION, INDIAN MARKETS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO NEGATIVE TODAY.
Monday, May 28, 2012
WEEKLY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE IN BANK NIFTY SPOT FROM 28 MAY 2012 TO 01 JUNE 2012
RESISTANCE :- 9599.80, 9743.30, 9964.40
SUPPORT :- 9235, 9013.70, 8870.20
BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 9378.5
MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF MAINTAINS ABOVE 9378.50 ON WEEKLY BASIS.
SUPPORT :- 9235, 9013.70, 8870.20
BREAK - EVEN POINT :- 9378.5
MARKET OUTLOOK :- POSITIVE IF MAINTAINS ABOVE 9378.50 ON WEEKLY BASIS.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
BE ALERT :- FIIs ARE CONTINUOUSLY TAKING NOT ONLY SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE BUT ALSO SELLING IN CASH SEGMENT.........24 MAY 2012
AFTER YESTERDAY DRAMA OF DOLLAR, FIIs TOOK AGAIN SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -812.25 CR.WHICH IS THE 2ND HIGHEST SHORT AMOUNT IN MAY 2012 SERIES AND SOLD IN CASH SEGMENT RS. -361.01 CR ALSO.
YESTERDAY WE SAW THAT INDIAN GOVT. ANNOUNCED THE PETROL PRICE HIKE BY 7.50 PER LTR. AND WILL HIKE THE PRICE OF DIESEL, LPG AND OTHER PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN COMING DAYS.
DOLLAR IS NOT INTERESTED TO COME DOWN. AT EVERY SMALL DIP IN DOLLAR IS USING AS BUYING OPPORTUNITY BY TRADERS AND OTHERS.
THE MAIN THING IS THAT FIIs ARE FACING HUGE LOSSES ON THEIR INVESTMENT IN INDIA ONLY BECAUSE OF RUPEE DEPRECIATION AND DOLLAR APPRECIATION WHICH UP TO @ -15%. THE THING IS THAT FIIs DON'T INVEST THEIR DOLLARS IN INDIA, THEY NEED TO CONVERT THEIR DOLLARS INTO RUPEE. BECAUSE OF DEPRECIATION IN RUPEE, FIIs COSTING ON INVESTMENT IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY MEANS THEY ARE PAYING MORE MONEY ON THEIR INVESTMENT, SO THEY ARE FACING HUGE CURRENCY CONVERSION LOSSES.
YESTERDAY WE SAW THAT INDIAN GOVT. ANNOUNCED THE PETROL PRICE HIKE BY 7.50 PER LTR. AND WILL HIKE THE PRICE OF DIESEL, LPG AND OTHER PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN COMING DAYS.
DOLLAR IS NOT INTERESTED TO COME DOWN. AT EVERY SMALL DIP IN DOLLAR IS USING AS BUYING OPPORTUNITY BY TRADERS AND OTHERS.
THE MAIN THING IS THAT FIIs ARE FACING HUGE LOSSES ON THEIR INVESTMENT IN INDIA ONLY BECAUSE OF RUPEE DEPRECIATION AND DOLLAR APPRECIATION WHICH UP TO @ -15%. THE THING IS THAT FIIs DON'T INVEST THEIR DOLLARS IN INDIA, THEY NEED TO CONVERT THEIR DOLLARS INTO RUPEE. BECAUSE OF DEPRECIATION IN RUPEE, FIIs COSTING ON INVESTMENT IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY MEANS THEY ARE PAYING MORE MONEY ON THEIR INVESTMENT, SO THEY ARE FACING HUGE CURRENCY CONVERSION LOSSES.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
MARKET OVERALL VIEW....22 MAY 2012
MARKET IS GIVING GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO EXIT FROM UPSIDE. STILL FIIs ARE TAKING CONTINUOUSLY SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE. TODAY ON 21 MAY 2012 TAKE SHORT POSITION RS. -546.80 CR AND SELLING IN CASH SEGMENT.
TAKE THE BENEFIT OF THIS UPSIDE OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET AND GET EXIT FROM LONG POSITIONS AND TAKE SHORT POSITIONS. NOTHING IS GOING TO POSITIVE STILL NOW. MARKET IS REACTING ON UPSIDE IS JUST BECAUSE OF NEWS FLOW AND FACTOR BUT POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS STILL NOT THERE.
IN G8 MEETING ALL BIG LEADERS GAVE STATEMENT TO SUPPORT THE GREECE HAS TO BE IN EURO ZONE BUT NOBODY IS STILL GETTING ANY SOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM.
POINTS WHICH CAN'T BE IGNORE :-
1. FIIs ARE TAKING CONTINUOUSLY SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE. THE OVERALL FIIs ARE HAVING HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -3097.57 CR. @ 5043.05 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL IN MAY 2012 SERIES
2. HUGE APPRECIATION IN DOLLAR AGAINST RUPEE WHILE DOLLAR ITS HIGHEST LEVEL @ 55
3. SOLUTION FOR GREECE EURO ZONE EXIT HAS STILL NOT FOUNDED
4. SLOW GROWTH IN CHINA,
5. MOODY'S DOWNGRADED SPANISH BANKS IN WHICH BANCO SANTANDER THE EURO ZONE LARGEST BANK WHICH IS VERY BAD AND SERIOUS THING
6. NO DEMAND IS LOOKING IN THE ECONOMY OF BOTH TYPES OF ECONOMY DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING AND MANY MORE
7. MARKET IS TRADING IN PHASE 8:- ANXIETY - THIS DIPS IS TAKING LONGER THAN EXPECTED UNDER MARKET CYCLE
TAKE THE BENEFIT OF THIS UPSIDE OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET AND GET EXIT FROM LONG POSITIONS AND TAKE SHORT POSITIONS. NOTHING IS GOING TO POSITIVE STILL NOW. MARKET IS REACTING ON UPSIDE IS JUST BECAUSE OF NEWS FLOW AND FACTOR BUT POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS STILL NOT THERE.
IN G8 MEETING ALL BIG LEADERS GAVE STATEMENT TO SUPPORT THE GREECE HAS TO BE IN EURO ZONE BUT NOBODY IS STILL GETTING ANY SOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM.
POINTS WHICH CAN'T BE IGNORE :-
1. FIIs ARE TAKING CONTINUOUSLY SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE. THE OVERALL FIIs ARE HAVING HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -3097.57 CR. @ 5043.05 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL IN MAY 2012 SERIES
2. HUGE APPRECIATION IN DOLLAR AGAINST RUPEE WHILE DOLLAR ITS HIGHEST LEVEL @ 55
3. SOLUTION FOR GREECE EURO ZONE EXIT HAS STILL NOT FOUNDED
4. SLOW GROWTH IN CHINA,
5. MOODY'S DOWNGRADED SPANISH BANKS IN WHICH BANCO SANTANDER THE EURO ZONE LARGEST BANK WHICH IS VERY BAD AND SERIOUS THING
6. NO DEMAND IS LOOKING IN THE ECONOMY OF BOTH TYPES OF ECONOMY DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING AND MANY MORE
7. MARKET IS TRADING IN PHASE 8:- ANXIETY - THIS DIPS IS TAKING LONGER THAN EXPECTED UNDER MARKET CYCLE
Monday, May 21, 2012
GREAT ARBITRAGING OPPORTUNITY IN SBI :- SBI SPOT IS TRADING @ 2015 AND SBI FUTURE IS TRADING @ 1981, SO DIFFERENCE IS @ 34 POINTS. SELL IN CASH AND BUY IN FUTURE AND UNWIND THE POSITION ON EXPIRY.........21 MAY 2012
GREAT ARBITRAGING OPPORTUNITY IN SBI :- SBI SPOT IS TRADING @ 2015 AND SBI FUTURE IS TRADING @ 1981, SO DIFFERENCE IS @ 34 POINTS. SELL IN CASH AND BUY IN FUTURE AND UNWIND THE POSITION ON EXPIRY.
Saturday, May 19, 2012
LET'S HAVE LOOK ON MARKET CYCLE WITH NIFTY....19 MAY 2012
LET'S HAVE LOOK ON MARKET CYCLE WITH NIFTY....19 MAY 2012 :-
NIFTY WITH MARKET CYCLE
NIFTY SPOT FROM 1998 - 2012
PHASES OF MARKET CYCLE :-
1. DISBELIEF - THIS RALLY WILL FAILS LIKE THE OTHERS
2. HOPE :- RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE
3. OPTIMISM - THIS RALLY IS REAL
4. BELIEF - TIME TO GET FULLY INVESTED
5. THRILL - I WILL BUY MORE ON MARGIN
6. EUPHORIA - I AM GENIUS AND WE ARE ALL GOING TO BE RICH
7. COMPLACENCY - WE JUST NEED TO COOL OFF FOR THE NEXT RALLY
8. ANXIETY - THIS DIPS IS TAKING LONGER THAN EXPECTED
9. DENIAL - MY INVESTMENTS ARE WITH GREAT COMPANIES
10. PANIC - SHIT EVERYONE IS SELLING. I NEED TO GET OUT
11. POINT OF MAXIMUM FINANCIAL OPPORTUNITY
AND AGAIN PHASE 1
AFTER ANALYZING THE ABOVE THE MARKET CYCLE CHART AND NIFTY CHART, IT IS CLEAR THAT NIFTY IS UNDER PHASE 8 - ANXIETY (THIS DIPS IS TAKING LONGER THAN EXPECTED) AND PHASE 9, PHASE 10 AND PHASE 11 WILL COME ONE BY ONE. WHILE PHASE 7 - COMPLACENCY (WE JUST NEED TO COOL OFF FOR THE NEXT RALLY) HAS BEEN CLEARED BY NIFTY SPOT EARLIER.
FIIs POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE @ NIFTY SPOT LEVEL BASIS ON MAY 2012 SERIES BASIS FROM 02 MAY 2012 TO 18 MAY 2012........19 MAY 2012
FIIs POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE @ NIFTY SPOT LEVEL BASIS ON MAY 2012 SERIES BASIS FROM 02 MAY 2012 TO 18 MAY 2012........19 MAY 2012 :
ABOVE TABLE SHOWS THAT HOW MUCH FIIs ARE TAKING SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE CONTINUOUSLY IN MAY 2012 SERIES. FIIs HAVE TAKEN SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 10 TRADING SESSIONS OUT OF 13 TRADING SESSIONS IN MAY 2012 SERIES TILL 18TH MAY 2012 AND THE NET SHORT POSITION IS RS. -2550.77 CR. @ 5045.35 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS WHICH CLEAR INDICATES THAT FIIs ARE NOT LOOKING ANY POSITIVE TRIGGER IN THE MARKET AND TAKING SHORT POSITIONS CONTINUOUSLY.
FIIs TOOK SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -1039.13 CR ON 04TH MAY 2012 WHICH WAS THE 1ST HIGHEST SHORT AMOUNT IN MAY 2012 SERIES BASIS AND ALSO TOOK SHORT POSITION RS. -756.01 CR. ON 16TH MAY 2012 WHICH WAS THE 2ND HIGHEST SHORT AMOUNT IN MAY 2012 SERIES BASIS.
ABOVE TABLE SHOWS THE FIIs POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE FROM JAN 2012 TO MAY 2012 (TILL 18TH MAY 2012). IF WE ANALYZE FROM JAN 2012 THEN WE WILL FIND THAT FIRSTLY FIIs BOOKED PROFIT IN THEIR ALL LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE IN MARCH 2012 @ 5265.24 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL WHICH HAD TAKEN @ 5164.70 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. MEANS BOOKED PROFIT WITH ALMOST +100 POINTS ONLY, ITS CLEARLY SHOWS THAT HOW MUCH FIIs BOOKED THEIR PROFIT IN NIFTY FUTURE VERY QUICKLY WHICH HAS NO MEANING. MEANS FIIs TRADE FOR +100 POINTS PROFIT HARDLY AND THEY ALWAYS BOOK THEIR ALMOST +200 POINTS TO +300 POINTS IN NIFTY BUT THIS TIME THEY DID TRADE FOR +100 POINTS ONLY. CLEAR INDICATION THAT FIIs WERE NOT SEEING ANY POSITIVE TRIGGER FOR UPSIDE IN THE MARKET AT THAT TIME THAT'S WHY THEY BOOKED PROFIT IN THEIR LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE VERY QUICKLY.
FIIs HAD TAKEN TOTAL LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE INCLUDING JAN -12 & FEB -12 WAS RS. +5312CR. @ 5164.70 BUT THEY BOOKED PROFIT IN THEIR 86.43% LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE IN MARCH 2012 AND SOLD RS. -4597.29 CR. @ 5265.24 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL IN MARCH 2012. AFTER THAT NOT ONLY REST 13.57% PORTION OF LONG POSITION BOOKED BUT ALSO TOOK SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE 1ST TIME THIS YEAR 2012 IN APRIL 2012 AND SOLD RS. -1121.41 CR @ 5262.24 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. SO SHORT POSITION LEVEL ON NIFTY SPOT BASIS WAS 5262.24 AND ALSO TOOK SHORT POSITION IN MAY 2012 SERIES ALSO.
LET'S HAVE LOOK ON MAJOR SHORT POSITIONS TAKEN BY FIIs IN 2012 TILL 18TH MAY 2012 ON NIFTY SPOT LEVEL BASIS:-
ON 30TH JAN 2012 - RS. -1154.94 CR. @ 5087.30 (3RD HIGHEST SHORT POSITION/AMOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 2012 (FROM JAN 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012))
ON 10TH FEB 2012 - RS. -1366 CR. @ 5381.60 (2ND HIGHEST SHORT POSITION/AMOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 2012 (FROM JAN 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012))
ON 27TH FEB 2012 - RS. -763.03 CR. @ 5281.20
ON 07TH MARCH 2012 - RS. 742.67 CR. @ 5220.45
ON 12TH MARCH 2012 - RS. -673.82 CR. @ 5359.55
ON 15TH MARCH 2012 - RS. 502.91 CR. @ 5380.50
ON 22ND MARCH 2012 - RS. -988.61 CR. @ 5364.95
ON 26TH MARCH 2012 - RS. -1434.59 CR. @ 5184.25 (1ST HIGHEST SHORT POSITION/AMOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 2012 (FROM JAN 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012))
ON 27TH MARCH 2012 - RS. -555.85 CR. @ 5243.15
ON 29TH MARCH 2012 - RS. -540.28 CR. @ 5178.85
ON 30TH MARCH 2012 - RS. -500.67 CR. @ 5295.55
ON 09TH APRIL 2012 - RS. -1091.98 CR. @ 5234.40 (4TH HIGHEST SHORT POSITION/AMOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 2012 (FROM JAN 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012))
ON 10TH APRIL 2012 - RS. -687.25 CR. @ 5243.60
ON 23TH APRIL 2012 - RS. -508.25 CR. @ 5200.60
ON 04 TH MAY 2012 - RS. -1038.13 CR. @ 5086.85 (5TH HIGHEST SHORT POSITION/AMOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 2012 & 1ST HIGHEST SHORT POSITION IN MAY 2012 SERIES TILL 18TH MAY 2012(FROM JAN 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012))
ON 16TH MAY 2012 - RS. -756.01 CR. @ 4858.25 (2ND HIGHEST SHORT POSITION IN MAY 2012 SERIES TILL 18TH MAY 2012
CONCLUSION :-
FINALLY, PICTURE IS CLEAR THAT FIIs HAVE STARTED NOW TO TAKE SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE FROM APRIL 2012 AND CONTINUOUSLY TAKING ALSO.
OVERALL FIIs ARE HAVING SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -2957.47 CR. @ 5182.34 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVEL IN 2012 TILL 18TH MAY 2012 AND IN MAY 2012 SERIES FIIs HAVE SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -2550.77 CR. @ 5045.35 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. MEANS NIFTY SPOT IS STILL NOT LOOKING ABOVE 5050 IN MAY SERIES AND 5180 - 5200 ON OVERALL BASIS AND FIIs WILL TAKE MORE SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE IN FURTHER COMING TRADING SESSIONS.
ABOVE TABLE SHOWS THAT HOW MUCH FIIs ARE TAKING SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE CONTINUOUSLY IN MAY 2012 SERIES. FIIs HAVE TAKEN SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 10 TRADING SESSIONS OUT OF 13 TRADING SESSIONS IN MAY 2012 SERIES TILL 18TH MAY 2012 AND THE NET SHORT POSITION IS RS. -2550.77 CR. @ 5045.35 NIFTY SPOT LEVELS WHICH CLEAR INDICATES THAT FIIs ARE NOT LOOKING ANY POSITIVE TRIGGER IN THE MARKET AND TAKING SHORT POSITIONS CONTINUOUSLY.
FIIs TOOK SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -1039.13 CR ON 04TH MAY 2012 WHICH WAS THE 1ST HIGHEST SHORT AMOUNT IN MAY 2012 SERIES BASIS AND ALSO TOOK SHORT POSITION RS. -756.01 CR. ON 16TH MAY 2012 WHICH WAS THE 2ND HIGHEST SHORT AMOUNT IN MAY 2012 SERIES BASIS.
ABOVE TABLE SHOWS THE FIIs POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE FROM JAN 2012 TO MAY 2012 (TILL 18TH MAY 2012). IF WE ANALYZE FROM JAN 2012 THEN WE WILL FIND THAT FIRSTLY FIIs BOOKED PROFIT IN THEIR ALL LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE IN MARCH 2012 @ 5265.24 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL WHICH HAD TAKEN @ 5164.70 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. MEANS BOOKED PROFIT WITH ALMOST +100 POINTS ONLY, ITS CLEARLY SHOWS THAT HOW MUCH FIIs BOOKED THEIR PROFIT IN NIFTY FUTURE VERY QUICKLY WHICH HAS NO MEANING. MEANS FIIs TRADE FOR +100 POINTS PROFIT HARDLY AND THEY ALWAYS BOOK THEIR ALMOST +200 POINTS TO +300 POINTS IN NIFTY BUT THIS TIME THEY DID TRADE FOR +100 POINTS ONLY. CLEAR INDICATION THAT FIIs WERE NOT SEEING ANY POSITIVE TRIGGER FOR UPSIDE IN THE MARKET AT THAT TIME THAT'S WHY THEY BOOKED PROFIT IN THEIR LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE VERY QUICKLY.
FIIs HAD TAKEN TOTAL LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE INCLUDING JAN -12 & FEB -12 WAS RS. +5312CR. @ 5164.70 BUT THEY BOOKED PROFIT IN THEIR 86.43% LONG POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE IN MARCH 2012 AND SOLD RS. -4597.29 CR. @ 5265.24 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL IN MARCH 2012. AFTER THAT NOT ONLY REST 13.57% PORTION OF LONG POSITION BOOKED BUT ALSO TOOK SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE 1ST TIME THIS YEAR 2012 IN APRIL 2012 AND SOLD RS. -1121.41 CR @ 5262.24 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. SO SHORT POSITION LEVEL ON NIFTY SPOT BASIS WAS 5262.24 AND ALSO TOOK SHORT POSITION IN MAY 2012 SERIES ALSO.
LET'S HAVE LOOK ON MAJOR SHORT POSITIONS TAKEN BY FIIs IN 2012 TILL 18TH MAY 2012 ON NIFTY SPOT LEVEL BASIS:-
ON 30TH JAN 2012 - RS. -1154.94 CR. @ 5087.30 (3RD HIGHEST SHORT POSITION/AMOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 2012 (FROM JAN 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012))
ON 10TH FEB 2012 - RS. -1366 CR. @ 5381.60 (2ND HIGHEST SHORT POSITION/AMOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 2012 (FROM JAN 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012))
ON 27TH FEB 2012 - RS. -763.03 CR. @ 5281.20
ON 07TH MARCH 2012 - RS. 742.67 CR. @ 5220.45
ON 12TH MARCH 2012 - RS. -673.82 CR. @ 5359.55
ON 15TH MARCH 2012 - RS. 502.91 CR. @ 5380.50
ON 22ND MARCH 2012 - RS. -988.61 CR. @ 5364.95
ON 26TH MARCH 2012 - RS. -1434.59 CR. @ 5184.25 (1ST HIGHEST SHORT POSITION/AMOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 2012 (FROM JAN 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012))
ON 27TH MARCH 2012 - RS. -555.85 CR. @ 5243.15
ON 29TH MARCH 2012 - RS. -540.28 CR. @ 5178.85
ON 30TH MARCH 2012 - RS. -500.67 CR. @ 5295.55
ON 09TH APRIL 2012 - RS. -1091.98 CR. @ 5234.40 (4TH HIGHEST SHORT POSITION/AMOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 2012 (FROM JAN 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012))
ON 10TH APRIL 2012 - RS. -687.25 CR. @ 5243.60
ON 23TH APRIL 2012 - RS. -508.25 CR. @ 5200.60
ON 04 TH MAY 2012 - RS. -1038.13 CR. @ 5086.85 (5TH HIGHEST SHORT POSITION/AMOUNT IN NIFTY FUTURE IN 2012 & 1ST HIGHEST SHORT POSITION IN MAY 2012 SERIES TILL 18TH MAY 2012(FROM JAN 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012))
ON 16TH MAY 2012 - RS. -756.01 CR. @ 4858.25 (2ND HIGHEST SHORT POSITION IN MAY 2012 SERIES TILL 18TH MAY 2012
CONCLUSION :-
FINALLY, PICTURE IS CLEAR THAT FIIs HAVE STARTED NOW TO TAKE SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE FROM APRIL 2012 AND CONTINUOUSLY TAKING ALSO.
OVERALL FIIs ARE HAVING SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -2957.47 CR. @ 5182.34 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVEL IN 2012 TILL 18TH MAY 2012 AND IN MAY 2012 SERIES FIIs HAVE SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE RS. -2550.77 CR. @ 5045.35 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. MEANS NIFTY SPOT IS STILL NOT LOOKING ABOVE 5050 IN MAY SERIES AND 5180 - 5200 ON OVERALL BASIS AND FIIs WILL TAKE MORE SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY FUTURE IN FURTHER COMING TRADING SESSIONS.
Friday, May 18, 2012
Moody's downgrades 16 Spanish banks.....18 MAY 2012
Moody's downgrades 16 Spanish banks:-
Moody's Investor Service carried out a sweeping downgrade of 16 Spanish banks on Thursday, including Banco Santander, the euro zone's largest bank, citing a weak economy and the government's reduced ability to support troubled lenders.
All the banks' long-term debt ratings were downgraded by at least one notch, and some suffered three-notch cuts.
Spain's banks, awash in bad loans after a real estate boom went bust, are at the heart of the euro zone debt crisis because markets fear a state bailout would put a severe strain on the country's already stretched public finances.
Spain relapsed into an economic recession in the first quarter and likely faces a prolonged slump as the government tries to shrink its budget deficit by slashing spending.
"Amidst the ongoing euro area debt crisis, the Spanish government's rising budget deficit and the renewed recession, sovereign creditworthiness has declined," the ratings agency said. "This decline is a driver of today's bank rating actions."
Moody's had cut Spain's sovereign rating by two notches to A3 in February, placing it in the middle of its investment grade rating scale. It maintains a negative outlook on the credit.
Thursday's move came after Moody's downgraded 26 Italian banks on Monday and followed a press report about a run at troubled lender Bankia , Spain's fourth largest bank. The Spanish government, which took over Bankia last week, denied the report.
Santander suffered a three-notch cut to its long-term rating to A3 from Aa3.
Moody's also cut BBVA's long-term rating by three notches to A3 from Aa3 and put the credit on a negative outlook. BBVA is Spain's second largest lender.
Bad loans, limited access to funding :-
Moody's said on April 13 it would begin issuing conclusions to various reviews for European banks and global financial securities firms, including big US investment banks. This process was to begin in mid-May and conclude by the end of June.
The agency cited restricted bank access to funding and rapid deterioration of asset quality for all the downgrades.
Spain's banks have 307 billion euros of exposure to a property market that crashed in 2007-2008, of which 184 billion euros is considered problematic, according to government estimates.
Four separate government reforms of the financial sector have failed to persuade investors that the banking system is safe, even though banks have set aside enough funds to absorb losses in up to 45% of their total exposure, including performing and non-performing loans and real estate holdings. .
Caixabank's long-term rating was cut by three notches to A3. Moody's cited the bank's having reported a 32% increase in problem loans at the end of 2011.
The ratings agency cut Bankinter's long-term rating by three notches to Baa2, two notches above junk status. It cited the bank's heavy dependence on wholesale funding and restricted access to market funding.
Rival ratings agency Standard & Poor's took negative ratings action on 16 Spanish banks in April, days after it downgraded Spain's sovereign credit rating by two notches to BBB-plus.
Fitch Ratings has Spain's sovereign credit rating at A, about the mid-point of its investment grade scale.
The government's borrowing costs shot higher on Thursday after data confirmed the economy was back in recession.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Wednesday his government, which is struggling to reduce the budget deficit, could soon have trouble financing itself in the bond market unless the pressure eases.
The government's strained finances are another risk for banks, since many have used cheap loans from the European Central Bank to buy three-year and five-year government bonds.
Through March, Spanish banks held almost 150 billion euros of Spanish government bonds, up from about 76 billion at the end of November.
Affect on US banks :-
US bank stocks are likely to face pressure because of investor concerns about their exposure to Spain, analysts said.
But because the Spanish bank downgrades were expected and because US banks had ample time to reduce or hedge exposure, the financial impact is likely to be limited.
"The downgrades have been pretty well telegraphed but I don't think that means US bank stocks won't sell off," said Keith Davis, an analyst with Farr, Miller & Washington. "There's a knee jerk reaction; when things go wrong people sell first and ask questions later."
Moody's Investor Service carried out a sweeping downgrade of 16 Spanish banks on Thursday, including Banco Santander, the euro zone's largest bank, citing a weak economy and the government's reduced ability to support troubled lenders.
All the banks' long-term debt ratings were downgraded by at least one notch, and some suffered three-notch cuts.
Spain's banks, awash in bad loans after a real estate boom went bust, are at the heart of the euro zone debt crisis because markets fear a state bailout would put a severe strain on the country's already stretched public finances.
Spain relapsed into an economic recession in the first quarter and likely faces a prolonged slump as the government tries to shrink its budget deficit by slashing spending.
"Amidst the ongoing euro area debt crisis, the Spanish government's rising budget deficit and the renewed recession, sovereign creditworthiness has declined," the ratings agency said. "This decline is a driver of today's bank rating actions."
Moody's had cut Spain's sovereign rating by two notches to A3 in February, placing it in the middle of its investment grade rating scale. It maintains a negative outlook on the credit.
Thursday's move came after Moody's downgraded 26 Italian banks on Monday and followed a press report about a run at troubled lender Bankia , Spain's fourth largest bank. The Spanish government, which took over Bankia last week, denied the report.
Santander suffered a three-notch cut to its long-term rating to A3 from Aa3.
Moody's also cut BBVA's long-term rating by three notches to A3 from Aa3 and put the credit on a negative outlook. BBVA is Spain's second largest lender.
Bad loans, limited access to funding :-
Moody's said on April 13 it would begin issuing conclusions to various reviews for European banks and global financial securities firms, including big US investment banks. This process was to begin in mid-May and conclude by the end of June.
The agency cited restricted bank access to funding and rapid deterioration of asset quality for all the downgrades.
Spain's banks have 307 billion euros of exposure to a property market that crashed in 2007-2008, of which 184 billion euros is considered problematic, according to government estimates.
Four separate government reforms of the financial sector have failed to persuade investors that the banking system is safe, even though banks have set aside enough funds to absorb losses in up to 45% of their total exposure, including performing and non-performing loans and real estate holdings. .
Caixabank's long-term rating was cut by three notches to A3. Moody's cited the bank's having reported a 32% increase in problem loans at the end of 2011.
The ratings agency cut Bankinter's long-term rating by three notches to Baa2, two notches above junk status. It cited the bank's heavy dependence on wholesale funding and restricted access to market funding.
Rival ratings agency Standard & Poor's took negative ratings action on 16 Spanish banks in April, days after it downgraded Spain's sovereign credit rating by two notches to BBB-plus.
Fitch Ratings has Spain's sovereign credit rating at A, about the mid-point of its investment grade scale.
The government's borrowing costs shot higher on Thursday after data confirmed the economy was back in recession.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Wednesday his government, which is struggling to reduce the budget deficit, could soon have trouble financing itself in the bond market unless the pressure eases.
The government's strained finances are another risk for banks, since many have used cheap loans from the European Central Bank to buy three-year and five-year government bonds.
Through March, Spanish banks held almost 150 billion euros of Spanish government bonds, up from about 76 billion at the end of November.
Affect on US banks :-
US bank stocks are likely to face pressure because of investor concerns about their exposure to Spain, analysts said.
But because the Spanish bank downgrades were expected and because US banks had ample time to reduce or hedge exposure, the financial impact is likely to be limited.
"The downgrades have been pretty well telegraphed but I don't think that means US bank stocks won't sell off," said Keith Davis, an analyst with Farr, Miller & Washington. "There's a knee jerk reaction; when things go wrong people sell first and ask questions later."
Thursday, May 17, 2012
FIIs POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE ON TH BASIS OF NIFTY SPOT LEVELS FROM JAN 2012 MAY 2012 (16 MAY 2012).......17 MAY 2012
FIIs POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE ON TH BASIS OF NIFTY SPOT LEVELS FROM JAN 2012 MAY 2012 (16 MAY 2012).......17 MAY 2012 :-
ANALYSIS :-
AFTER ANALYZING THE ABOVE TABLE WE CAN SEE CLEARLY THAT HOW MUCH FIIs ARE SELLING IN NIFTY FUTURES IN HEAVY AMOUNT FROM MARCH 2012 AND STILL SELLING RIGHT NOW ALSO IN MAY 2012. FIRSTLY THEY BECAME EXIT FROM THEIR WHATEVER LONG POSITION HAD TAKEN IN JAN 2012 & FEB 2012 IN MARCH 2012 COMPLETELY AND AFTER THAT STARTED TO TAKE SHORT POSITION CONTINUOUSLY.
IF WE SEE ON MAY 2012 DATA THEN WE WILL FIND THAT FIIs HAS TAKEN SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE IN MAY 2012 WHICH RS. -2285.24 CR. @ 5054.83 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVELS MEANS CLEAR INDICATION THAT NIFTY SPOT IS NOT LOOKING ABOVE THIS LEVEL THIS MONTH.
ANOTHER THING IS THAT IF WE SEE ON OVERALL BASIS FROM JAN 2012 TO MAY 2012 (TILL 16TH MAY 2012) THEN WE WILL FIND THAT FIIs HAS TAKEN SHORT POSITION NIFTY FUTURE ON OVERALL BASIS FROM JAN 2012 TO MAY 2012 WHICH IS RS. -2691.94 CR. @ 5182.34 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. MEANS IT IS CLEAR THAT NIFTY SPOT IS NOT LOOKING ABOVE 5200 IN THE NEAR TERM.
ALL DATA INDICATES NEGATIVE SIGNAL.
ANALYSIS :-
AFTER ANALYZING THE ABOVE TABLE WE CAN SEE CLEARLY THAT HOW MUCH FIIs ARE SELLING IN NIFTY FUTURES IN HEAVY AMOUNT FROM MARCH 2012 AND STILL SELLING RIGHT NOW ALSO IN MAY 2012. FIRSTLY THEY BECAME EXIT FROM THEIR WHATEVER LONG POSITION HAD TAKEN IN JAN 2012 & FEB 2012 IN MARCH 2012 COMPLETELY AND AFTER THAT STARTED TO TAKE SHORT POSITION CONTINUOUSLY.
IF WE SEE ON MAY 2012 DATA THEN WE WILL FIND THAT FIIs HAS TAKEN SHORT POSITION IN NIFTY FUTURE IN MAY 2012 WHICH RS. -2285.24 CR. @ 5054.83 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVELS MEANS CLEAR INDICATION THAT NIFTY SPOT IS NOT LOOKING ABOVE THIS LEVEL THIS MONTH.
ANOTHER THING IS THAT IF WE SEE ON OVERALL BASIS FROM JAN 2012 TO MAY 2012 (TILL 16TH MAY 2012) THEN WE WILL FIND THAT FIIs HAS TAKEN SHORT POSITION NIFTY FUTURE ON OVERALL BASIS FROM JAN 2012 TO MAY 2012 WHICH IS RS. -2691.94 CR. @ 5182.34 AT NIFTY SPOT LEVEL. MEANS IT IS CLEAR THAT NIFTY SPOT IS NOT LOOKING ABOVE 5200 IN THE NEAR TERM.
ALL DATA INDICATES NEGATIVE SIGNAL.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
German Q1 GDP data came Growth Tops Expectations......15 May 2012
The German economy expanded more than expected in the first quarter of 2012, data released by the Federal Statistical Office showed Tuesday on 15 May 2012.
Gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent from the prior quarter, when it fell 0.2 percent. Economists had expected only 0.1 percent growth for the first quarter.
The price adjusted GDP was up 1.7 percent annually, faster than the 1.5 percent expansion logged in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, in calendar-adjusted terms, GDP growth slowed to 1.2 percent from 2 percent. Nonetheless, the annual increase exceeded the 0.8 percent consensus forecast.
Gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent from the prior quarter, when it fell 0.2 percent. Economists had expected only 0.1 percent growth for the first quarter.
The price adjusted GDP was up 1.7 percent annually, faster than the 1.5 percent expansion logged in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, in calendar-adjusted terms, GDP growth slowed to 1.2 percent from 2 percent. Nonetheless, the annual increase exceeded the 0.8 percent consensus forecast.
French Economy GDP data came (Q-o-Q)....15 May 2012
The French economy stagnated in the first quarter of 2012 after a modest growth in the fourth quarter of 2011, the statistical office Insee said Tuesday, 15 May 2012.
The gross domestic product recorded no change during the first three months of the year in line with economists' expectations. The fourth quarter growth rate, meanwhile, was revised down to 0.1 percent from the previously estimated 0.2 percent.
Consumer spending grew 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter during the first quarter, while investment declined 0.8 percent. Overall domestic demand, excluding inventory changes, contributed just 0.1 percentage point, less than 0.3 percentage point added in the fourth quarter. Imports rebounded, whole export growth slowed. Consequently, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth. Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP.
The gross domestic product recorded no change during the first three months of the year in line with economists' expectations. The fourth quarter growth rate, meanwhile, was revised down to 0.1 percent from the previously estimated 0.2 percent.
Consumer spending grew 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter during the first quarter, while investment declined 0.8 percent. Overall domestic demand, excluding inventory changes, contributed just 0.1 percentage point, less than 0.3 percentage point added in the fourth quarter. Imports rebounded, whole export growth slowed. Consequently, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth. Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP.
TODAY SOME VERY IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA FROM EURO ZONE.......15 MAY 2012
TODAY SOME VERY IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA FROM EURO ZONE. ALL TIME ARE BASED ON US EASTERN TIME. RIGHT NOW US TIME IS :- 00:56 AM AND DATA WILL START TO COME FROM 1:30 AM.
5/15/12
|
01:30 AM
|
GDP (Q-o-Q)
|
Q1 P
|
-0.05 %
|
0.2 %
|
France Expected Negative
|
|
5/15/12
|
01:30 AM
|
GDP (Y-o-Y)
|
Q1 P
|
1.41 %
|
France
|
||
5/15/12
|
02:00 AM
|
GDP (Q-o-Q)
|
Q1
|
0.18 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Germany
|
|
5/15/12
|
02:00 AM
|
GDP (Y-o-Y)
|
Q1
|
1.05 %
|
1.5 %
|
Germany
|
|
5/15/12
|
03:00 AM
|
GDP (Y-o-Y)
|
Q1 P
|
-0.05 %
|
0.6 %
|
Czech Republic
|
|
5/15/12
|
03:00 AM
|
GDP (Q-o-Q)
|
Q1
|
-0.1 %
|
Austria
|
||
5/15/12
|
03:00 AM
|
GDP (Q-o-Q)
|
Q1 F
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Romania
|
|
5/15/12
|
03:00 AM
|
GDP (Q-o-Q)
|
Q1 P
|
-0.8 %
|
0.3 %
|
Hungary
|
|
5/15/12
|
03:00 AM
|
GDP (Q-o-Q)
|
Q1 P
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.1 %
|
Czech Republic FLAT
|
|
5/15/12
|
03:00 AM
|
GDP (Y-o-Y)
|
Q1 P
|
0 %
|
1.4 %
|
Hungary
|
|
5/15/12
|
03:00 AM
|
GDP (Y-o-Y)
|
Q1 F
|
0.8 %
|
1.9 %
|
Romania
|
China Foreign Investment Falls 0.7% in Sixth Monthly Drop.......15 MAY 2012
Foreign direct investment in China fell for a sixth month in April, as faltering global growth and renewed turmoil in financial markets dented company spending in Asia’s biggest economy.
Inbound investment dropped 0.7 percent from a year earlier to $8.4 billion, the Ministry of Commerce said today in Beijing. That compares with a 6.1 percent drop in March and extends the longest stretch of declines since the global financial crisis.
Today’s data underscore the risk of a deeper slowdown in China after reports last week showed April’s industrial output growth was the slowest since 2009 and new yuan loans fell to the lowest this year.
China cut banks’ reserve requirements on May 12 to spur lending and arrest the deterioration a day after UBS AG and Bank of America Corp. lowered their second-quarter and full-year growth estimates.
“Foreign investment will be generally stable in the full year despite some monthly volatility,” Lu Zhiming, a Shanghai- based researcher at Bank of Communications Co., said before the release.
While a slowdown in industrial output growth may “indirectly” affect sentiment, foreign companies won’t rush to withdraw capital they’ve invested “as long as they continue to make a profit more easily in China than in developed nations and the political situation stays stable,” he said.
Inbound investment dropped 0.7 percent from a year earlier to $8.4 billion, the Ministry of Commerce said today in Beijing. That compares with a 6.1 percent drop in March and extends the longest stretch of declines since the global financial crisis.
Today’s data underscore the risk of a deeper slowdown in China after reports last week showed April’s industrial output growth was the slowest since 2009 and new yuan loans fell to the lowest this year.
China cut banks’ reserve requirements on May 12 to spur lending and arrest the deterioration a day after UBS AG and Bank of America Corp. lowered their second-quarter and full-year growth estimates.
“Foreign investment will be generally stable in the full year despite some monthly volatility,” Lu Zhiming, a Shanghai- based researcher at Bank of Communications Co., said before the release.
While a slowdown in industrial output growth may “indirectly” affect sentiment, foreign companies won’t rush to withdraw capital they’ve invested “as long as they continue to make a profit more easily in China than in developed nations and the political situation stays stable,” he said.
UniCredit, Intesa Among 26 Italian Banks Cut by Moody’s.......15 MAY 2012
UniCredit SpA (UCG) and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) were among 26 Italian banks that had their credit ratings cut one to four levels by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited weakened earnings and the country’s economic outlook.
UniCredit, Italy’s biggest bank, had its long-term debt rating lowered one step to A3, Moody’s said in a spreadsheet on its website yesterday. Milan-based Intesa, the nation’s second- largest lender, also was downgraded to A3 from A2.
“Italian banks are particularly vulnerable to adverse operating conditions, which are likely to cause further asset quality deterioration, earnings pressure, and restricted market funding access,” Moody’s said in a statement. “These risks are exacerbated by investor concerns over the sustainability of the Italian government’s debt burden, which has contributed to the difficult wholesale funding conditions faced by Italian banks.”
The action followed Moody’s decision on Feb. 13 to cut the credit rating of Italy and five other countries, including Spain, on doubts over the euro region’s ability to deal with the debt crisis. Italy was lowered to A3, or four steps above junk, from A2 with a negative outlook. “At this stage, a downgrade on Italian banks was expected, given their correlation with the economic cycle and the country’s debt,” said Fabrizio Spagna, managing director at Axia Financial Research. “They have a huge amount of government bonds in their portfolios, which affect their financial positions.”
UniCredit, Italy’s biggest bank, had its long-term debt rating lowered one step to A3, Moody’s said in a spreadsheet on its website yesterday. Milan-based Intesa, the nation’s second- largest lender, also was downgraded to A3 from A2.
“Italian banks are particularly vulnerable to adverse operating conditions, which are likely to cause further asset quality deterioration, earnings pressure, and restricted market funding access,” Moody’s said in a statement. “These risks are exacerbated by investor concerns over the sustainability of the Italian government’s debt burden, which has contributed to the difficult wholesale funding conditions faced by Italian banks.”
The action followed Moody’s decision on Feb. 13 to cut the credit rating of Italy and five other countries, including Spain, on doubts over the euro region’s ability to deal with the debt crisis. Italy was lowered to A3, or four steps above junk, from A2 with a negative outlook. “At this stage, a downgrade on Italian banks was expected, given their correlation with the economic cycle and the country’s debt,” said Fabrizio Spagna, managing director at Axia Financial Research. “They have a huge amount of government bonds in their portfolios, which affect their financial positions.”
Monday, May 14, 2012
U.S. Stocks Decline Amid Speculation Greece to Exit Euro......14 May 2012
U.S. stocks declined, following the biggest weekly retreat in 2012 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as Greece struggled to form a new government amid growing speculation the nation may leave the euro region.
Money managers are net short 19,375 contracts on the S&P 500, down 82 percent from a four-year high in September even after the figure jumped from 3,584 last week.
Money managers are net short 19,375 contracts on the S&P 500, down 82 percent from a four-year high in September even after the figure jumped from 3,584 last week,
Money managers are net short 19,375 contracts on the S&P 500, down 82 percent from a four-year high in September even after the figure jumped from 3,584 last week.
Money managers are net short 19,375 contracts on the S&P 500, down 82 percent from a four-year high in September even after the figure jumped from 3,584 last week,
BANK NIFTY POSITIONAL VIEW......14 MAY 2012
BANK NIFTY FUTURE MAY EXPIRY IS LOOKING WEAK ON CHARTS. "M" PATTERN FORMATION IS THERE ON POSITIONAL BASIS AND EVERY UPSIDE IS USING AS SELLING OPPORTUNITY.
IMPACT OF "M" PATTERN IN BANK NIFTY FUTURE MAY EXPIRY......14 MAY 2012
SEE THE IMPACT OF "M" PATTERN IN BANK NIFTY FUTURE MAY EXPIRY AND 1ST TARGET ALSO ACHIEVED IN SHORT BANK NIFTY FUTURE MAY EXPIRY @ 9350, SHORT CALL GAVE @ 9415.
"M" PATTERN OR DOUBLE TOP FORMATION IN BANK NIFTY FUTURE MAY EXPIRY ON INTRADAY CHART.........14 MAY 2012
"M" PATTERN OR DOUBLE TOP PATTERN FORMATION IN BANK NIFTY FUTURE MAY EXPIRY ON INTRADAY CHART. NOW LOOKING DOWN. SHORT BANK NIFTY FUTURE MAY EXPIRY @ 9415, STOP LOSS @ 9450, TARGET @ 9350 - 9300.
Friday, May 11, 2012
U.S. Stocks Rise on Unexpected Consumer Confidence Gain......11 MAY 2012
U.S. stocks rose as a gauge of consumer confidence unexpectedly increased.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.1 percent to 1,359.63 at 10:21 a.m. in New York after slumping as much as 0.7 percent. Nvidia surged 8.3 percent after predicting second- quarter sales above estimates. JPMorgan was down 8 percent.The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for May rose to 77.8 from 76.4 the prior month. The gauge was projected to drop to 76. Estimates ranged from 73.5 to 78. The index averaged 64.2 during the last recession and 89 in the five years before the 18-month economic slump that ended in June 2009. Estimates ranged from 73.5 to 78. The index averaged 64.2 during the last recession and 89 in the five years before the 18-month economic slump that ended in June 2009.
Inflation Expectations :-
Consumers in today’s confidence report said they expect an inflation rate of 3.1 percent over the next 12 months, the lowest this year, compared with 3.2 percent in the prior survey. Over the next five years, Americans expected a 3 percent rate of inflation, compared with a previously reported 2.9 percent in the previous report. A weight on consumers’ view of the economy, employers added 115,000 new workers in April, the smallest number since October, according to figures from the Labor Department reported last week. The jobless rate also fell as people left the labor force. “The U.S. economy is recovering but at a stubbornly slow pace,” Carl Camden, president and chief executive officer of Kelly Services Inc. (KELYA), a staffing agency, said during a May 9 earnings call. “Large companies still aren’t spending and adding jobs as quickly as would’ve been expected.”
Italy’s Borrowing Costs Drop as Government Meets Target....11 MAY 2012
Italy’s Borrowing Costs Drop as Government Meets Target :-
Italy sold 10 billion euros ($13 billion) of Treasury bills, meeting its target as rates fell from the previous auction. The Rome-based Treasury sold 7 billion euros of 364-day bills at 2.34 percent, down from 2.84 percent at the last sale of similar-maturity debt on April 11. Investors bid for 1.79 times the amount offered, up from 1.52 times last month. Also sold were 3 billion euros of 3-month bills at 0.865 percent, compared with 1.249 last month. Prime Minister Mario Monti is implementing 20 billion euros in spending cuts and tax increases to erase the budget gap and tame a 1.9 trillion-euro debt. Ten-year borrowing costs fell more than 2 percentage points between Monti’s appointment in November and early March as demand for the nation’s debt was bolstered by European Central Bank lending and the premier’s efforts to spur the euro region’s third-biggest economy. Today’s sale “offers a measure of reassurance, but needs to be backed up by a solid bond auction on Monday,” Nicholas Spiro, London-based managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, said in an e-mail. Italy will auction as much as 5.25 billion euros of bonds on May 14. Political deadlock in Greece and Spain’s fiscal woes have helped reignite the region’s debt crisis amid waning impact from the ECB’s long-term refinancing operation, or LTRO. The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond was 5.50 percent at 12:39 p.m. in Rome, up from 4.80 percent on March 8, which was the lowest since Monti took office on Nov. 16. “Market perception-wise, Italy is faring better than Spain, but is still paying more to get its debt out the door,” Spiro said. “This is a post-LTRO trading environment.”
MARCH 2012 IIP DATA NEGATIVE.....11 MAY 2012
MARCH MONTH IIP GROWTH: -3.5 % ,MARKET EXPECTING: 1.1 %, PREV: 4.1 %, MARCH CAPITAL GOODS GROWTH : - 21.3 %
BANK NIFTY FUTURE MAY EXPIRY POSITIONAL VIEW.......11 MAY 2012
BANK NIFTY MAY EXPIRY HAS MADE BEARISH HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN ON CHARTS AND HAS FORMED BEARISH FORMED ALSO. IT IS LOOKING BEARISH AND CAN BE SHORT ON EVERY RISE WITH KEEPING STOP LOSS ABOVE 9600 ACCORDING TO RISK LEVEL AND TARGET WILL BE BELOW 9100 IN COMING DAYS. IT WILL POSITIVE IF HOLDS AND TRADES ABOVE 9960.
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